Give me 29-30c over 36c any day. Bank!

So what happened to the week long heatwave?

Looks like at least 6 days of 30C somewhere (Thurs to Tues), with 28.4 this Wed. So that’s pretty much a week long heatwave despite the downgrades. Hopefully Wed can eke one more hot day out. 

Tonight’s GEFS is OK, with a spike of (thundery) rain mid next week but then return to drier conditions. Not as persistently wet as previous ensembles.

Considering 24 hours ago the GEFS showed 850s flatlining till Thursday before any breakdown at all they are a bit of a kick in the teeth though.

Just imagine the current 850s are 14C. Then we’re still flatlining until Thursday at a very hot level. 

So does ECM. But more unsettled.

That's still a huge climbdown in 24 hours. I guess it was always too good to be true. 

Yes it becomes more unsettled as the week goes on. Would still deliver some very high temps during the early part of the week I feel.

More like it’s GFS being, well, GFS. That model had all the heat swept away for the weekend a few days ago, and was being lauded by certain folk.

GFS - maintains the ridge of HP SW-NE with W'lies across Scotland but LP moving up from S and linking with LP from the N to give N'ly flow down N Sea Fri 14th before HP re-establishes from SW lasting to Fri 21st before W'lies become dominant across Scotland and eventually further S Sun 23rd

GEFS - In the S temps dropping form ca 7C above normal back to about normal Thu 13th and staying there. Best chance of rain around the 13th, occasional spikes after this. In Scotland, a smaller peak around Tue 11th declining more gradually to around normal or just above from 14th. Rain peak on 13th as in S but additionally around 11th.

ECM - LP from S is more definite and centred over UK Fri 14th without the N-ly connection. LP from Atlantic moves in Tue 18th and puts a quicker end to the warm spell.

Fax hasn't given up on LP in the Channel and shows E-lies until middle of next week, when an interesting (? aka stormy) cold front moves in from W

I'm liking the way GEM ends significant push from the Azores high and another heatwave incoming.

Indeed, op a big outlier with a low pressure forming over us on Wed-Thurs (though consistent with ICON and similar evolution to ECM00z and GEM).

And now the GEFS looks far more rewarding in the short to mid-term; Moomin- don't look at the Control option! 

Yes indeed very good set. Many keep significant warmth all the way.

GFS has been awful