Looks very unsettled for the foreseeable. Even here the garden has dried out but we really just need a couple of spells of rain to fix that. The rest of the rain can stay away as far as I'm concerned. 

Haven't seen it mentioned here, but starting with today's 12z run, GFS ensemble had a major upgrade:

• 31 members (from 21)


• higher horizontal resolution throughout (~25km)


• The 00z run will extend to 35 days out daily


• Runs will start ~one hour earlier and finish one hour later

These changes will probably make for a slightly better and less volatile ensemble model, but still not as good as the EC.

See a few posts above. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1258080#post1258080

So, reporting as things stand:

GFS - current Lp filling and moving to Germany Mon 28th (but rather more slowly than previously? so still affecting E coast) then sequence of LPs running NW-SE across or close to UK; 975 mb Thu 1st SW Ireland, 990mb Mon 5th Cornwall. After this HP builds strongly (and looks warm) 1035mb C England Sat 10th.

GEFS - temp recovering to norm ca Tue 29th and with usual variation between runs stays there to Sat 10th (no sign of warm spell at that time unlike parent GFS) Rain in E at first, otherwise dry until Tue 29th and then on and off for the forecast period esp around Fri  2nd

ECM - holds the controlling LP stationary and  further W for a while ca Thu 1st and pushes a secondary across N England, followed by an area of LP generally covering the UK Sat 3rd with a centre 980mb Kent Sat 3rd .

If (see Brian's post) GEFS is significantly delayed due to upgrade, I may not be able to provide a regular daily summary which includes it owing to care commitments. ECM (while BST applies) already presents a problem

GEFS was upgraded yesterday. Key changes: Better physics, higher res, 00z run to 35d. 31 perts instead of 21. It means IMPROVED accuracy, but even better - snowrow now goes up to 33 not 23! -:) All 31 runs should appear on TWO from this evening. https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/tJnoEo2JC0

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) September 24, 2020

31 pert GEFS are now on TWO. Same links as before:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

Jetstream still in big loop circling the UK which breaks off as a cut-off low over Italy Sun 28th with W-ly flow resuming over UK, weak at first, becoming stronger and forming another loop just W of UK Thu 1st with UK benefiting from S-ly flow. That loop spawns another cut-off Mon 5th centred SW of UK before the whole jet breaks up and is virtually absent from E Atlantic Sat 10th.

GFS - current LP reluctant to move away and still over W Germany Sun 27th (ask the residents of E Anglia about it!) then W-lies for a few days until multi-centre LP establishes over UK Thu/Fri 1/2nd (N-lies in W, S-lies in E) which breaks in two, half moving off N-wards and half S-wards. The latter sits in Biscay for a few days with strong E-ly/SE-ly winds esp Wed 7th but eventually moves back to UK as slack LP Sat 10th

GEFS - Current cold spell at lowest tomorrow, back to normal Sun 28th and not far from norm through to Sat 10th though suggestions of warmth from op & control ca Sat 3rd and coolth more generally Fri 9th. Rain just in E for now and after UK-wide brief dry spell, frequent and general occurrence of rain from Wed 30th, peaks most marked in S.

ECM - 0z agrees with GFS to Thu 1st but (12z) the southern half of the LP does not move off to Biscay but sits over UK and intensifies Sun 4th LATER - 0Z - LP over W Ireland, not UK, but nowhere near Biscay

Too late to save what should have been a superb CET guess by me this month 

Very unsettled and potentially very wet in mid-term this morning

Very unsettled Dave 

144 and 168 hrs 

Sorry, no summary today. Nothing serious, just a pile-up of domestic commitments

Back lon track this morning ...

Jetsteream - Very loopy forecast. Big cut-off moving down to Italy over the next few days but over N Atlantic rather uncertain until Thu 1st when another big loop forms over UK turning into full cut-off by Sun 4th .  Jet splits, southern part boosts the cut-off lw, northern part moves to Iceland. cut-off breaks  up and the jet runs from NW to SE on track W of Ireland, Wed 7th, switching to N-ly over Uk Sat 10th creating a loop over Europe then before yet another loop forms over UK Tue 13th.

GFS - still gales over SE for a day or so, then brief westerly until trough settles over UK Thu 1st deepening to LP 985mb Wales Sun 4th. Something vaguely W-ly for the following week as that LP fills, new LP 1000mb over England Tue 13th 

GEFS - temps at or a little below seasonal norm (Scotland & N England similar but more irregular) throughout, suggestion of a colder period ca Fri 9th onwards, rain frequent after 2 or 3 dry days, most intense ca Thu 1st - Sun 4th

ECM - places the LP next weekend as deeper and in the Channel 965mb and staying around filling more slowly to Wed 7th

You need to invest in one of those new fangled robotic hoovers.

Cloudy damp and raw lovely

Going through the next week , unsettled /cool and wet 

Latest update from Gav in the Media thread suggest HP in October bringing fog and frost - be nice to see 

Fingers crossed on that front, it would be nice to see. Nothing really on the ECM or GFS supports it, and even the new GEFS, whilst showing a rise in pressure still have a mixed feeling about them unfortunately.

Meto long range is on board at least for mid October.

(First post for a while - hope all you guys are keeping safe and well!)

There still seems to be a problem with getting the GEFS 840 data sets off WCOSS and on to the file servers. A small set of runs is appearing at the correct time but even now (22:15) there are still 10 perturbations not available for today's update. Until ALL of the 00z perturbations are appearing I'm holding off bringing the new charts / tables. Hopefully there'll be some news in the next few days.

16-dayer showing all W Europe colder than average while E Europe (at least for week 1) is warm. Especially cool over the Alps - skiing holiday in October, anyone? Plenty of rain over UK, too, especially week 1.

GFS - Pressure gradually dropping this week culminating in LP centred over Wales 985mb Sun 3rd withsome cold air entrained. At same time large HP centred just E of Finland 1040mb. LP hangs around an slowly moves off NE-wards filling by wed 7th while the HP weakens and moves S. Brief ridge of HP Sat 10th but deep LP N of Scotland moves S filling but still covering England Tue 13th.

GEFS - temps up and down the next few days but no better than seasonal norm in S, but occasionally better in Scotland; from Sat 3rd consistently a little below norm becoming cooler still from Thu 8th (the op run doesn't know whether it wants to be a warm or cold outlier!). perhaps some 5C below norm in the S by Mon 12th. A lot of rain Fri 1st - Mon 5th and not particularly dry thereafter.

ECM - will add 0z later but yesterday's 12z confirms next weekend's LP over the UK, arriving a day earlier than GFS, also moving away a day earlier and N/NW-wards unlike GFS ADDED It may arrive earler as a weak feature but really blows up at storm (980mb Scottish borders) Mon 5thand then hamgs around as it fills

Liking the look of the weather patterns next few days...models then consistantly forecasting lows over UK to then migrate NNE to that horrid place west of Narvik which has happened a lot in recent years.Really reduces chances of sustained cold and doesnt do places like  Western Russia any favours either....makes it impossible for an artic high to impact the weather or a decent link up Siberian Greenland high....need those lows to behave like in 1979 1985..