Come on you two, stop bickering, I come on here because I appreciate everyone's points of view, be they fact based, or otherwise.

It's too early in the season to be ripping each other to bits

So.......    what is this low going to bring for the week ahead?   

I've put this summary in the MO thread for continuity and because it looks beyond the weekend but there is a dedicated thread for detailed posts on this weekend's storm.

GFS - deceptively weak area of LP tomorrow (Thu 1st) deepens quickly over the weekend (deepest 980mb Biscay on Sat 3rd but returns to the UK 985 mb Mon 5th before filling) . Another area of LP in N Sea 990 mb by Fri 9th before anticyclone moves across , at its peak Tue 13th (a development not seen previously) before another deep LP from the SW 980mb in SW Approaches Fri 16th.

FAX places the weekend LP further N, in the Channel 975mb Fri 2nd, brief excursion over France & Germany before returning to E Anglia 978mb Sun 4th

ECM - similar over the weekend 980mb Brittany Fri 2nd (very notable pressure gradient) and back in the UK Sun 4th (same central pressure but over larger area) Early indications after that are for W-lies with pressure generally low close to N of UK

GEFS - temps above and below norm by turns in near future (BBC keeps them generally below), then close to norm through to Fri 16th, suggestions of cooler around Sun 11th before recovering. Plenty of rain especially from today to Mon 5th but continuing on and off therafter (not much sign of the HP noted under the GFS heading).

Been a long time since I've seen so many southerly track lows potentially forcast.....hope it keeps up these patterns

We've been down this track many times in recent years.  Interesting synoptics appear in the autumn but as winter sets in the profile across the North Atlantic pancakes and it's game over. At the moment there is no reason to think this year will be different.*

*of course someone will come up with a reason to explain why this year it REALLY is different

If the Atlantic stays weak and the PV can clear off we have an outside chance , trouble is they are just 2 of the 1,000 factors that have a say on our tiny island 

Hey Gooner,

Your In-Box is full. 

A sensible post

16-dayer:: Contrast between W Europe (cool and wet) and E Europe (warm and dry) maintained for the full two weeks. Boundary roughly a line running from Greece to Finland.

Fax shows most detail for the near future (but see discussion now warming up on the Storm 1st/5th Oct thread); 995mb E Scotland today, 971mb Brittany Fri, 986mb Belgium Sat, 974mb Kent Sun, 987mb Yorkshire Mon, with fronts moving up from the S at first, later in from the E and returning S. Obviously a lot of rain and wind.

GFS keeps the current LP centre a bit further W i.e. over central England until Mon 5th after which filling. New storm to W of Scotland Thu 8th 970mb, moving to Shetland and then filling N Sea Sun 11th; its remnants then track down to Biscay while ridge of HP extends W-E across Scotland Wed 14tth. The remnants are revived in association with more LP on the Atlantic generating S-ly winds for all Sat 17th. Not much related to yesterday's forecast so low confidence.

GEFS temps dipping from seasonal average to cool around Sun 11th and rising (with a lot of variations) again by Sat 17th with mean of runs back to norm. Much rain Thu 1st - Mon 5th (3rd - 5th in N England and Scotland) and intermittently thereafter

ECM agrees with GFS  re current storm but dramatically different by Thu 8th with HP over Atlantic -no trace of a storm, just slack LP continuing over an area from UK to Norway and this persisting to Sun 11th 

Quite  nasty looking 

Very unsettled

Another LP to the North later on in the 0z 

Definite signs of a calmdown mid October how it evolves will be interesting....wouldnt be suprised to see 20-22 degrees Celsius in the south again.....

Jetstream: Cut-off low affecting Uk breaks up by Tue 6th in favour of a more conventional W-E flow to S of UK. Another broader loop develops Fri 9th and splits off another cut-off, this time over Spain,  Mon 12th. It remains erratic for that week but by Fri 16th has split into two, one stream N of UK (which may in the end come down the N Sea) and one to the S.

GFS - different to yesterday and more like yesterday's ECM - current Lp drifts to N of Scotland, filling Wed 7th, before returning as a shallow low passing the UK on its way to Spain arriving Mon 12th and dragging N-lies behind it. Ridge of HP over mid-Atlantic transfers to lie across Scotland Thu 15th and just about survives to Sun 18th despite LP to W & S.

GEFS - temps drop off from seasonal norm now to a cool spell around Sun 11th as yesterday, back to norm at end of forecast Sun 18th. Rain now (Sun 4th in Scotland), and many runs with rain on and off throughout  (drier in Scotland) The op run is one that is mainly dry matching the headline GFS above but generally little agreement after Tue 13th.

ECM - similar to GFS but the shallow low in GFS does not appear as a defined feature, just generally low pressure from Scotland across to Norway, displaced by the ridge of HP as above

15th October 1987 was one very famous occasion when the BBC evening forecast went spectacularly wrong, and less than 12 hours later too.

But interestingly very nearly correct a week earlier on the 'week ahead' forecast.

FAX - LP 978mb Brittany today, centre moves to Englnd 975mb tomorrow (Sun), 989mb E Scotland Monday (but with a trough running round its southern flank) 987mb Hebrides Tue, 985mb S of Iceland Wed, associated fronts active to Tue

GFS - follows the pattern of Fax to Tue but lp still close to UK Wd and then sudden deepening 975mb E Scotland Fri 9th (GFS has been interested in developing such a storm but it hasn't appeared on every forecast). Ridge of HP on Atlantic Sun 11th toppling across UK and persisting weakly with LP N and S of it to Sat 17th but eventually the Atlantic wins with LP moving towards Ireland Mon 19th

GEFS - temp profile as yestrerday, cool around the 11th, back to norm around 19th (Scotland back to norm earlierbut uncertainly so;  the op has a late burst of warmth for everyone), rain for next few days and another peak on the 9th, various runs have intermittent rain thereafter

ECM matches GFS except that the storm shown by GFS on Fri 9th is a milder affair at 995mb. The ridge later on across the UK is stronger, too

Should dry out the effects of Alex....hope this Azores high migration doesnt verify.....if that moves to Iberia and expands  could be a cruel blow to cold weather lovers.....

I'd be more concerned for cold weather fans had this been Dec/Jan/Feb - but this is mid-October so hardly a blow to cold weather fans

[quote=Jayni C;1261963]

I'd be more concerned for cold weather fans had this been Dec/Jan/Feb - but this is mid-October so hardly a blow to cold weather fans

 True......

Jetstream - current cut-off low breaking up and normal W-E flow but S of UK by Tue 6th; the flow moving N and forming a minor loop Fri 9th but introducing strong N-S stream behind it Sun 11th;; that and further perturbations giving more cut-off lows Balearics Tue 13th and Corsica Fri 16th; at this time the stream in our region is N of the UK but that again buckles and forms a broad loop SW Approaches Tue 20th.

GFS -current LP filling but new one developing and moving NE to Shetland 980mb Fri 9th; followed by ridge of HP mostly out to W until Sat 17th  when it full topples over the UK for a couple of days but displaced by new LP W of Ireland 9985mb Tue 20th

GEFS - temps mostly below norm, notably around Sun 11th rising to norm Wed 14th and mean staying there but wide variation in runs. Rain here and there now and then ; best chance of dry spell around Tue 13th. Scotland with extra rainfall Fri 9th.

ECM - like GFS at first but LP Fri 9th much weaker; and ridge of HP moves from Atlantic more quickly to lie across S of UK Wed 14th

GFS - current LP drifting N and filling 995mb Iceland Thu 8th; instead of yesterday's forecast of a deep depression near Scotland we have a Channel 'runner' on that day (BBC saying exact extent N-wards uncertain). Ridge of HP on Atlantic Sun 11th trying to move over UK in the following week (quite a lot of N-ly source of air) but eventually pushed back by LP developing near Iceland Sun 18th running south over UK down to Biscay Tue 20th. 

GEFS - Apart from brief bump up ca Fri 9th generally cool (ca 7C below norm Sun 11th), mean of runs then back to norm but with enormous variation (on Tue 20th for the S Coast you can pick a run from 8C above norm to 12C below! Other areas not much better) Wet Fri 9th in S (FAX suggests Thu 8th) then dry-ish for a week before pptn increasing again. S Scotland/N England rather dryer throughout.

ECM - similar to GFS but at end of run Thu 15th brings the ridge of HP further E and just about covers the UK