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Hippydave
07 February 2021 18:59:41

Interesting models again tonight


GEM as the worst of the operationals still manages to keep it cold in the East out to day 10.


GFS manages to go better with a brief hit from a big cold pool courtesy of the developing Scandi HP and keeps surface cold in place for the whole run. The ens aren't as keen as that but still have good consensus for low level cold at least hanging on until the 15th/16th Feb.


ECM Op is cold or very cold throughout and no quick warm up in sight from T240 either. 


Depending on how much snow falls there could be some notably low temps coming up in the next week to 10 days and it's looking rather unlikely that some of the snowier places will lose their snow cover for over a week, even down here which is pretty good going!


 


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
White Meadows
07 February 2021 19:00:15
Wetter only showing yesterday’s 240
ballamar
07 February 2021 19:00:49
Nice extension of the cold on ECM, definitely looking at a colder than average Feb at the moment, which is quite rare
Hippydave
07 February 2021 19:00:50

Wetter only showing yesterday’s 240

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Chart image


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Rob K
07 February 2021 19:01:43


Interesting models again tonight


GEM as the worst of the operationals still manages to keep it cold in the East out to day 10.


GFS manages to go better with a brief hit from a big cold pool courtesy of the developing Scandi HP and keeps surface cold in place for the whole run. The ens aren't as keen as that but still have good consensus for low level cold at least hanging on until the 15th/16th Feb.


ECM Op is cold or very cold throughout and no quick warm up in sight from T240 either. 


Depending on how much snow falls there could be some notably low temps coming up in the next week to 10 days and it's looking rather unlikely that some of the snowier places will lose their snow cover for over a week, even down here which is pretty good going!


 


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


Yes it does look good. It's a bit of a shame it doesn't look like there is much chance now of any snow cover for anywhere in the south that doesn't already have it, barring perhaps some incursions into the far SW. Having snow on the ground would make it a lot more epic!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Laths
07 February 2021 19:02:58
Not sure where all the cold uppers have gone on the ECM from 216 / 240.
John
Wallington
Surrey
(London Borough of Sutton)
jhall
07 February 2021 19:04:47

Wetter only showing yesterday’s 240

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


It's showing today's for me. Maybe you need to refresh your browser?


Cranleigh, Surrey
jhall
07 February 2021 19:06:47

Not sure where all the cold uppers have gone on the ECM from 216 / 240.

Originally Posted by: Laths 


No, I thought that was strange too. But with an easterly coming off the snow-covered continent, it shouldn't have that much effect on temperatures near the surface.


Cranleigh, Surrey
western100
07 February 2021 19:14:30

GFS, ECM , ICON show cold persisting throughout 


GEM is progressive but maybe too progressive? HP sinks quickly which i would think is the less likely outcome?


Pretty good consistency on the theme though


Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
Downpour
07 February 2021 19:16:25

I’m ready for spring now, after a truly miserable day across most of the SE. Snowing all day but almost nothing settling.
Now we do have about 0.25cm of settled powder and perhaps more to come, but I’d much rather have a nice frontal dump a la a fortnight ago.

Sadly, my wishes for an early spring look unlikely to be granted. A bone dry freezing cold easterly regime looks likely to continue for the foreseeable!


Chingford
London E4
147ft
tallyho_83
07 February 2021 19:22:13


 


Yes it does look good. It's a bit of a shame it doesn't look like there is much chance now of any snow cover for anywhere in the south that doesn't already have it, barring perhaps some incursions into the far SW. Having snow on the ground would make it a lot more epic!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Tell me about it! However I expect a flurry and would be gutted not to see a flurry at the very least.


Meanwhile - I saw this Icon 12z precipitation chart which does show the LP system move further inland Thursday evening /night into Friday:






BUT...


Then fragments horribly! 



 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


sunnyday
07 February 2021 22:06:03
Has TWO been down? Struggled getting on and no recent posts...
Gooner
07 February 2021 22:15:19


18Z has the Atlantic winning this 


If that is the reality then the Easterly for me has been the BIGGEST waste of time , nothing to write home about , I should imagine even with minus figures at night I wouldn't know it's been frosty as the air is so dry. 


Long long way off , hopefully the Control and ENS will be different 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Karl Guille
07 February 2021 22:15:30
Can't believe no-one has posted for nearly three hours! Maybe they are all outside building snowmen? Meanwhile, the 18z GFS Op is less keen on a quick return to cold in the medium term.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021020718/gfs-0-162.png?18 

St. Sampson
Guernsey
mrspatch
07 February 2021 22:15:36

Has TWO been down? Struggled getting on and no recent posts...

Originally Posted by: sunnyday 


Odd isn't it

Rob K
07 February 2021 22:19:47



18Z has the Atlantic winning this 


If that is the reality then the Easterly for me has been the BIGGEST waste of time , nothing to write home about , I should imagine even with minus figures at night I wouldn't know it's been frosty as the air is so dry. 


Long long way off , hopefully the Control and ENS will be different 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I can only see it out to 168 and not sure the Atlantic will win that easily on this run?


One thing that seems to make the difference both on this run and the GEN is when there is a little runner low on the front edge of the attack that puts a dent in the isobars on the front of the HP. That seems to knock the whole house of cards down. A long way to go before it is settled.  


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Lionel Hutz
07 February 2021 22:24:51


 


Tell me about it! However I expect a flurry and would be gutted not to see a flurry at the very least.


Meanwhile - I saw this Icon 12z precipitation chart which does show the LP system move further inland Thursday evening /night into Friday:






BUT...


Then fragments horribly! 



 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


I can promise you that I am watching this system very closely too! Really, it's a complete lottery. While this system looks like stalling somewhere over Ireland and SW UK, there is still a good chance that it may not even reach land and could stay to the South West. Or we may just have a couple of hours of snow at best before the milder air arrives. I have mentioned the South West Blizzard of 1978 a couple of times recently but we really could see a repeat of that event(or of the 1982 blizzard which was even better for Ireland). 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Gooner
07 February 2021 22:26:29

Chart image


Chart image


Heavy snow right on me next weekend ,  needs to be a snowy breakdown IMBY to make this a decent spell , still along way off 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
07 February 2021 22:29:45



These charts were what GFS dished out on Feb 1st for  tomorrow , so at 162h .


Widespread snow for  England and Wales , just shows how far into FI we are at that point 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 February 2021 22:29:48

Now that any chance of meaningful snow seems to have passed where I live, let’s pause for a moment and consider the synoptics “if only it were July”. Because this week, during warmer months, would have all the makings of a classic heatwave.


Today: onset. High pressure moves over the north of the country bringing dry Easterlies with some North Sea Haar and a fresh feel in the East, but 25-27C widely in Wales and the West Country.



Midweek: heat building. A slack Eastermly airflow with increasing pressure means skies clear in the Midlands and SE and heat builds in the West. The first 30C recorded in Porthmadog and Pembrey Sands



Meanwhile highland Scotland is recording its warmest and most settled period for a couple of years, with back to back 29C in Kinlochewe and 27C in Aviemore under gin clear skies, and a cheeky 25C in Stornaway.


Later in the week: heatwave. As high pressure establishes to the East winds turn South Easterly across southern England and the temperature rockets. 3 consecutive days of 32C+ with the peaks in Northolt, Gloucester and (again) Porthmadog, and an overall maximum of 35C on Saturday.



Following week: cooler but staying dry. A shift of wind to the East brings fresher conditions off the North Sea, but just as in June 1995 and June 2018 it’s not enough to prevent several more days of 30C peaks in the Midlands and North West. By next Wednesday we have a pattern almost uncannily similar to 30th June 1995. It hits 33C in Worcestershire, before cooled air from the North East starts to ease across the country. Still no sign of meaningful rain.



 


 


 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Fargo
07 February 2021 22:38:47
GFS18z seems the more likely scenario (on past form) but we will likely see some major twists before then. The point that the finest balance usually brings the greatest rewards still holds.
North Herefordshire 180m asl
Lionel Hutz
07 February 2021 22:40:41


 


I can only see it out to 168 and not sure the Atlantic will win that easily on this run?


One thing that seems to make the difference both on this run and the GEN is when there is a little runner low on the front edge of the attack that puts a dent in the isobars on the front of the HP. That seems to knock the whole house of cards down. A long way to go before it is settled.  


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The Atlantic hasn't entirely won for a couple of weeks now and it will lose this battle too. The question is where how far it will  advance before it loses. Most of Scotland has been in the freezer for weeks and that's been as far as the Atlantic has gotten recently. I'm hoping that the Atlantic will meet its Waterloo over Ireland this timewink.


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



tallyho_83
07 February 2021 22:53:13


 



These charts were what GFS dished out on Feb 1st for  tomorrow , so at 162h .


Widespread snow for  England and Wales , just shows how far into FI we are at that point 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Pretty accurate......


For Devon.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Whiteout
07 February 2021 22:54:10



18Z has the Atlantic winning this 


If that is the reality then the Easterly for me has been the BIGGEST waste of time , nothing to write home about , I should imagine even with minus figures at night I wouldn't know it's been frosty as the air is so dry. 


Long long way off , hopefully the Control and ENS will be different 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Bearing in mind your location, what do you expect from an Easterly?


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Rob K
07 February 2021 23:12:20


Ironically the ensembles have trended colder but the op and control are both right at the mild end (London short GEFS above).


 


Likewise the 2m temperature ensemble: op on the milder side but control almost out on its own



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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