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ballamar
06 December 2023 22:40:51
Looks vaguely promising on the pub run but almost certainly collapse!
Gandalf The White
06 December 2023 23:14:06

Looks vaguely promising on the pub run but almost certainly collapse!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Amazing what a strong mid-Atlantic block can achieve: we get into something like cold zonality, with the potential for something with more of an Arctic flavour as we run into the Xmas period.  Of course, it may be a complete outlier.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
07 December 2023 05:04:52
0z GFS

A dominant high pressure does look like building, and for the first time in a few days the op run shows potential.

The high meanders around I’ve the UK and the PV love near Canada starts to dissipate. This allows the the high to attempt a NW push. In turn, a trough starts to push in over scandi. This allows cold air to push down. This is over 300hrs away, but the evolution is a positive one, that could prove to be excellent. 

Eyebrow raised 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
CField
07 December 2023 06:24:53
Nice
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=17&time=384&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6 
 
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Ally Pally Snowman
07 December 2023 07:24:43
The hype on NW is the weekend before Christmas 23rd/24th is the time to watch for HLB to return probably to Greenland.  We'll see, before then not much of interest. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
07 December 2023 07:32:13

The hype on NW is the weekend before Christmas 23rd/24th is the time to watch for HLB to return probably to Greenland.  We'll see, before then not much of interest. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



A MLB can be nice, will be settled and hopefully ‘faux’ cold.

There are extremely tentative signs this morning that things are at least moving on right direction. 

I’ll be looking for:

1. MLB over or near us
2. That pre curser bump in 850s in Ensembles
3. By Friday this week tentative signs of retrogression and 850s falling from 20th onwards.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 December 2023 07:59:38
WX temp summaries for two weeks show freezing weather more or less static east of Poland (and including Scandinavia) and N of the Black Sea. W Europe mild and above norm in week 1, cooler and close to norm week 2. Pptn for Atlantic coastal countries and down through France to the Alps, all clearing away in favour of a large dry area (new; Spain, France, Britain, even Denmark) in week 2. Any rain is around Sicily.

GFS Op - current LP W of Ireland 960mb pushing E-wards across Britain, filling and breaking up as it goes, eventually 995mb N Ireland Tue 12th before diving SE-wards and allowing HP to establish with 1040/1045mb somewhere over Britain starting with a ridge E-wards to Europe Sat 16th but slowly re-arranging to a N-S axis Wed 20th.  Finally the HP declines Fri 22nd, even then pressure still fairly high though menaced by LP in Scandinavia.

ECM - similar to GFS, though with a tendency for the HP to be centred further S, i.e. over the English Channel/France.

GEFS - temps near norm (milder earlier, cooler later) with some rain until Fri 15th with good ens agreement, after which a wide spread of temp forecasts either side of a level a few degrees above norm esp in east but dry for most places at most times.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
nsrobins
07 December 2023 07:59:48

A MLB can be nice, will be settled and hopefully ‘faux’ cold.

There are extremely tentative signs this morning that things are at least moving on right direction. 

I’ll be looking for:

1. MLB over or near us
2. That pre curser bump in 850s in Ensembles
3. By Friday this week tentative signs of retrogression and 850s falling from 20th onwards.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


This is a decent summary. I like the idea of ‘robust’ MLB in our neighbourhood, so long as it isn’t one of those claggy ones with lots of cloud. Wherever it shall roam after that is still conjecture, but the torquey waves and teletubbies suggest a favourable chance of a move up to HLB in week 3. 
One thing’s for sure - we are more in the game this year than many previous.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ballamar
07 December 2023 09:23:10

The hype on NW is the weekend before Christmas 23rd/24th is the time to watch for HLB to return probably to Greenland.  We'll see, before then not much of interest. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


they jump on the bandwagon as soon as there is any hint on any run! 
Retron
07 December 2023 10:09:28

they jump on the bandwagon as soon as there is any hint on any run! 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Reminds me a lot of TWO 20 years ago, before we all turned cynical with experience!

Personally I'll just be looking forward to a change to a settled, quiet regime. While I'd love a proper White Christmas (there not having been one in my lifetime), I don't really expect to see one - ever.

The GEFS has been trending towards higher pressure over the past few suites, and the mean has risen from 1032hPa for London to 1037hPa over the past few runs, going from one day above 1030 to four days. While means are never terribly useful in terms of pinpointing specifics, the fact there are so many members going for a strong high or ridge means it's worth taking note of.

The ECM ensembles, on the other hand - pressure info is much harder to come by. They do have "pressure over a week" charts, but they don't show much of note for the UK, with us firmly in the near-average area for both this week and next. I would have expected more of a positive anomaly if they were to show something similar to GEFS.

The postage stamp ECM ensembles only go out to 168, nothing much of interest on them for the time being:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/enplot?base_time=202312070000&valid_time=202312140000 

As ever, it's going to be a slog to get through to more interesting charts.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
ozone_aurora
07 December 2023 10:22:34

Personally I'll just be looking forward to a change to a settled, quiet regime. While I'd love a proper White Christmas (there not having been one in my lifetime), I don't really expect to see one - ever.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Me too!

I'll like a bit of snow, but I think a quiet, dry, settled regime would be much welcomed. Certainly it will be for those who suffered flooding!
squish
07 December 2023 10:54:19
Interesting 06z, firming up and improving on the trends from previous runs. 

Quite a cool easterly developing for the south ( potentially) rather at odds with my general impression flicking through the charts the last few days...

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2023120706/gfsnh-0-240.png?6 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Gandalf The White
07 December 2023 11:01:49

Interesting 06z, firming up and improving on the trends from previous runs. 

Quite a cool easterly developing for the south ( potentially) rather at odds with my general impression flicking through the charts the last few days...

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2023120706/gfsnh-0-240.png?6 

Originally Posted by: squish 



Yes, a slightly different evolution, with the high pressure slightly further north and east.  Towards the latter stages of the run we have the high starting to retrogress again.

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ballamar
07 December 2023 12:01:45
Without any detail looks like HP could be very influential in second half of the month. How that impacts is up for debate but any HP at solar minimum under static air has change for very cold days and frost. Perfect in run up to Xmas, always the chance of retrogression in to favourable position. 
London 8/1 for white Xmas 🤞😉
Gusty
07 December 2023 12:04:12

Reminds me a lot of TWO 20 years ago, before we all turned cynical with experience!

The ECM ensembles, on the other hand - pressure info is much harder to come by. They do have "pressure over a week" charts, but they don't show much of note for the UK, with us firmly in the near-average area for both this week and next. I would have expected more of a positive anomaly if they were to show something similar to GEFS.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Does this help ?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=ecm&var=23&run=0&lid=ENS&bw= 
 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Retron
07 December 2023 12:23:05

👍

I keep forgetting about WZ - MC is my go-to charts site these days - but it's good to see they have EPS pressure charts. It's also good to see that the ECM ensembles back the GEFS - hopefully that high pressure will come to pass, as if nothing else it'd be nice for things to dry out a bit!
Leysdown, north Kent
Gandalf The White
07 December 2023 12:53:37
There’s quite a lot of support for the Op evolution, with the high retrogressing and an Arctic flow developing: about a third of the ensemble members deliver that pattern by the end of the run.

The mean 850hPa temperatures drop by 6c over the final four days, the 0c isotherm by 1,300 metres (2000 to 700).

2m temperatures for London are at around 5-6c max/3-4c min across the second half of the run. Only a few outliers show anything above normal.  Thankfully it also looks quite dry.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
07 December 2023 12:57:36
The Christmas tease has started then...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
07 December 2023 12:58:57

The Christmas tease has started then...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



indeed get your bets on now!
Gandalf The White
07 December 2023 13:06:59

The Christmas tease has started then...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Rather a tease than buckets of cold water.

😀
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Saint Snow
07 December 2023 13:13:32

Reminds me a lot of TWO 20 years ago, before we all turned cynical with experience!
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 




Happy days!

😃

All it took was Tom Pressuti to drop one of his [plucked from out of his backside, I think] snowmageddon forecasts, and half of us would get giddy, with Gary Sarre confident

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
overland
07 December 2023 13:16:31

There’s quite a lot of support for the Op evolution, with the high retrogressing and an Arctic flow developing: about a third of the ensemble members deliver that pattern by the end of the run.

The mean 850hPa temperatures drop by 6c over the final four days, the 0c isotherm by 1,300 metres (2000 to 700).

2m temperatures for London are at around 5-6c max/3-4c min across the second half of the run. Only a few outliers show anything above normal.  Thankfully it also looks quite dry.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 
It is out in the far reaches of FI, but at the end there are (as far as I can tell) only 2 ensemble members above the 30 year mean which suggests it's an unusually strong signal for such a time frame. 
 
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
CField
07 December 2023 13:20:48
Nice model on 06z at 384hrs....be interesting firstly if a cold snap develops and secondly how it evolves.That version would be great to see but it would be interesting if past form surfaces again possibly another messy slack easterly with the  influence of heights to our SW again...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gandalf The White
07 December 2023 13:23:36

It is out in the far reaches of FI, but at the end there are (as far as I can tell) only 2 ensemble members above the mean which suggests it's an unusually strong signal for such a time frame. 
 

Originally Posted by: overland 



Yes, exactly - both on the signal and on it being almost two weeks away.  We all know, after years of experience, that the ensembles can flip just like the Op, if new signals are detected.  But at least there’s some hope that the much-heralded, long-lasting and inevitable mild, wet mobile pattern may not last that long.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gusty
07 December 2023 16:22:51
GFS 12z. We may have something to focus on again.

Cold air to the east. A good place for it to be at this stage if this is to develop into a MLB, provided of course it doesn't topple south !

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=186&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



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