theweatheroutlook

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BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 March 2024 08:09:06
Is there a late Beast from the east on the way: The GFS Op 0Z says so, with widespread transitory spring snow-fall. Here’s a link to the pressure chart sequence. If only this were a month sooner!!
https://images.meteociel.fr/im/75/19249/animcki2.gif 

 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 March 2024 08:34:21
WX charts keeping freezing weather across Scandinavia and most of Russia for both weeks but in week 2 there is an outflow of colder weather (though not freezing) across Europe north of the Alps including Britain. For spring warmth go to the shores of the Caspian. Rain in week 1 for S Britain, France, Spain and Italy, moving a little further S in week 2 and becoming heavy in most places for the Alps.

GFS Op - current LP becoming centred over Britain and not filling until Monday. New trough reaching N Ireland from the NW 985mb Tue 6th before retreating W-wards and setting up a situation with LP W of Ireland and HP Norway with these two systems rotating clockwise around each other so by Fri 8th HP 1030mb Iceland and LP 995mb Biscay with rather cold E-lies for Britain* persisting to Fri 5th when there is a general rise of pressure over Britain and W Europe.

ECM - similar to GFS; the HP rather more intense and the wind more SE-ly than E-ly

GEFS - mean temp mostly near norm, slightly cooler earlier, slightly warmer later, with ensemble agreement breaking down from Fri 8th (op v. cold Sun 10th, then persisting esp in the N, control v. mild Tue 12th). Rain persistent but randomly distributed throughout, only really heavy in the SW

* 6 weeks too late!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 March 2024 09:56:32
Hoping we don’t get a BFTE on Wednesday, as we’re flying from Birmingham to Singapore.  I remember the BFTE on 1st March 2018 very well, as our flight from Birmingham to India was delayed. 🙄
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
nsrobins
01 March 2024 11:16:01
I think the general lack of interest in what in early Feb would be decent enough synoptics is understandable.
It really would take something special indeed to get sub -10s to our shores on an easterly in mid-March (has happened, but it's very rare).
But then again any snowfall down here at any time of the year is very rare these days so you can't be picky.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
CField
01 March 2024 14:27:47
Cold plunge looking to target central Europe which is very common in early mid March...some classic b&w footage of the Germans entering Prague in mid March 1939 in a snowstorm..
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 March 2024 19:31:43

I think the general lack of interest in what in early Feb would be decent enough synoptics is understandable.
It really would take something special indeed to get sub -10s to our shores on an easterly in mid-March (has happened, but it's very rare).
But then again any snowfall down here at any time of the year is very rare these days so you can't be picky.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

totally agree. But nothing would surprise me about this weird record breaking winter!!
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 March 2024 08:43:00
WX charts keeping freezing weather from Norway and N Baltic E-wards into Russia for both weeks; by comparison with yesterday less outflow to keep Europe cool, that below 4C mostly associated with mountains and high level areas. Rain in week 1 for Britain, France, Spain and the northern fringe of the Med; in week 2 rain retreats from Britain and a very dry area develops for Europe north of the Alps, just about reaching eastern Britain.

GFS Op - current LP hangs around for the weekend and is reinforced by a trough from the Atlantic on Monday. From Wed 6th HP develops 1030mb N Norway while the trough on the Atlantic slides SE-wards to Spain. The HP and the trough (becoming a defined LP) stay more or less in these positions for a week with winds going round from SE to E. From Thu 14th the HP develops as a ridge from Norway to N Sea to Spain with LP held on the Atlantic and S-lies for Britain.

ECM - similar but the 'defined LP' is deeper and closer (990mb touching Cornwall from Sun 10th) with stronger and colder SE-lies

GEFS - mean temp close to norm throughout,  with quite good agreement until Sun 10th, but always with a distinct group of much colder ens members including the control run from the 10th. Small amounts of pptn from time to time in different runs. Less agreement on temps in Scotland with a larger number of cooler options leading to moderate chance of snow there, but not in quantity; much more rain for the SW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Quantum
02 March 2024 09:51:44
GFS6Z has a chunk of tropospheric polar vortex get underneath the deep warm core high. Its a promising setup.
UserPostedImage
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
doctormog
02 March 2024 10:27:38
The outlook looks grim with persistent easterly muck for the foreseeable. Cool, grey, cloudy.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
The Beast from the East
02 March 2024 10:55:25

The outlook looks grim with persistent easterly muck for the foreseeable. Cool, grey, cloudy.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Hopefully down here we can get more chance of clear skies
What a waste of a pattern though. A month too late. Typical UK
 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
doctormog
02 March 2024 11:07:40

Hopefully down here we can get more chance of clear skies
What a waste of a pattern though. A month too late. Typical UK
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



There are a couple of days with less cloud in the two week outlook for many parts of England based on the 06z op run. Overall though for most of the time as I said grey, cool and uninspiring.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
02 March 2024 11:17:18

There are a couple of days with less cloud in the two week outlook for many parts of England based on the 06z op run. Overall though for most of the time as I said grey, cool and uninspiring.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Pretty much sums up British weather as a whole. Recently back after spending a month in Andalucia where even this time of year the skies are mainly blue, it really is quite depressing.  
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 March 2024 12:00:35

GFS6Z has a chunk of tropospheric polar vortex get underneath the deep warm core high. Its a promising setup.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Promising what? More cold rain?
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ballamar
02 March 2024 20:02:39
ECM looks prime for mid month cold - so annoying!
Caprikid62
02 March 2024 21:00:28
Surprised how quiet it is on here considering the latest output from most of the 12z models.
History tells us it's not so unusual to get a cold Easterly in early/mid March . The fat lady is on the stage but she's not singing yet .
Kinross, Tayside Scotland 120m ASL
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
02 March 2024 23:36:25
This Winter Dec Jan Feb that has gone by had so many multiple times with UKMO and GFS showing Cold Beast from the East winds, but the GFS and ECMWF often did not support it and on Thursday 29th Feb. and on Saturday 2nd March The 12z UKMO showed Beast from the East for March 7th and 8th.  On Gavs Weather Vids Model Forecast Discussions they appreciate my posts but Gavin has given me a separate section called daily model runs.  The previous round of getting me excited with UKMO showing heavy Snow very Cold was for 11th to 12th February 2024, but that was also changed to Milder weather with mixed weather regime taking over.  Western Southwest Central Europe today’s 12z ECMWF run showed the SE E tracking Low quite a deep large Low that also extends across much of North Atlantic Sea.  I hope everyone on here is doing ok.

Reminder Klaxon, Major SSW dip in PV winds on 7th and 8th March 2024.

Edit: A special long time Hi to Brian Gaze City Andy NSRobins DEW Doctormog Beast From The East and SevenDust etc!,👍😀🥶❄️.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
+2
BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
03 March 2024 00:40:45

This Winter Dec Jan Feb that has gone by had so many multiple times with UKMO and GFS showing Cold Beast from the East winds, but the GFS and ECMWF often did not support it and on Thursday 29th Feb. and on Saturday 2nd March The 12z UKMO showed Beast from the East for March 7th and 8th.  On Gavs Weather Vids Model Forecast Discussions they appreciate my posts but Gavin has given me a separate section called daily model runs.  The previous round of getting me excited with UKMO showing heavy Snow very Cold was for 11th to 12th February 2024, but that was also changed to Milder weather with mixed weather regime taking over.  Western Southwest Central Europe today’s 12z ECMWF run showed the SE E tracking Low quite a deep large Low that also extends across much of North Atlantic Sea.  I hope everyone on here is doing ok.

Reminder Klaxon, Major SSW dip in PV winds on 7th and 8th March 2024.

Edit: A special long time Hi to Brian Gaze City Andy NSRobins DEW Doctormog Beast From The East and SevenDust etc!,👍😀🥶❄️.

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 

We miss your posts LA2B: Come back to post on here - its always appreciated from me at least. Good post by the way. I think this last SSW will deliver from the resultant Scandi high being consistently modelled now across the models, but the exact orientation and alignment as it wobbles about is still to be nailed. The GFS 18z Op and ECM have this aligned at +240 ish for sub -10 Hpa air reaching Blighty. It’s no unknown.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+2
Chunky Pea
03 March 2024 06:22:43

This Winter Dec Jan Feb that has gone by had so many multiple times with UKMO and GFS showing Cold Beast from the East winds, but the GFS and ECMWF often did not support it and on Thursday 29th Feb. and on Saturday 2nd March The 12z UKMO showed Beast from the East for March 7th and 8th.  On Gavs Weather Vids Model Forecast Discussions they appreciate my posts but Gavin has given me a separate section called daily model runs.  The previous round of getting me excited with UKMO showing heavy Snow very Cold was for 11th to 12th February 2024, but that was also changed to Milder weather with mixed weather regime taking over.  Western Southwest Central Europe today’s 12z ECMWF run showed the SE E tracking Low quite a deep large Low that also extends across much of North Atlantic Sea.  I hope everyone on here is doing ok.

Reminder Klaxon, Major SSW dip in PV winds on 7th and 8th March 2024.

Edit: A special long time Hi to Brian Gaze City Andy NSRobins DEW Doctormog Beast From The East and SevenDust etc!,👍😀🥶❄️.

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 



In echo of BBlake, it is great to see you posting again, LA2B. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+2
Chunky Pea
03 March 2024 06:27:21

There are a couple of days with less cloud in the two week outlook for many parts of England based on the 06z op run. Overall though for most of the time as I said grey, cool and uninspiring.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



The sooner we get March and April out of the way, the better. Woke up this morning to a house temp of only 12c downstairs. Coldest it has been all winter. Outside temps are very unremarkable but whatever is in that wind, it is penetrating into the walls. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 March 2024 09:04:04
Not a great deal of change for Britain in WX temp charts for the net two weeks, but in Europe a retreat of freezing weather from most of the Baltic in week 2, while the area down towards the Danube Basin *which has been unusually mild) gets colder. Some very warm weather showing up on the southern fringes of the map (Morocco, Syria) while the sea east of Iceland is colder. Rain through France, Spain and along the northern fringes of the Mediterranean in week 1, decreasing in week 2; Britain fairly dry but not quite as marked as yesterday.

GFS Op - LP now over Britain filling to be replaced by a series of troughs working their way past the SW into Biscay . 985mb Tue 5th Fastnet, and again 975mb Fri 8th, the latter working its way down into France turning the winds from SE or S earlier in the week into a full E-ly by Mon 11th. HP then develops 1030mb covering most of Britain until Sat 16th cutting off the E-ly, but drifting S and fading by Tue 19th with zonal flow and LP approaching NW Scotland.

ECM concurs

GEFS - mean temps near norm through the next fortnight but with steadily increasing spread of ens members (op has a rather cold few days around the 12th). Rain in some ens members now and then throughout though op and control rather dry; small amounts generally but heavy at times in W especially SW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
03 March 2024 09:26:25

Not a great deal of change for Britain in WX temp charts for the net two weeks, but in Europe a retreat of freezing weather from most of the Baltic in week 2, while the area down towards the Danube Basin *which has been unusually mild) gets colder. Some very warm weather showing up on the southern fringes of the map (Morocco, Syria) while the sea east of Iceland is colder. Rain through France, Spain and along the northern fringes of the Mediterranean in week 1, decreasing in week 2; Britain fairly dry but not quite as marked as yesterday.

GFS Op - LP now over Britain filling to be replaced by a series of troughs working their way past the SW into Biscay . 985mb Tue 5th Fastnet, and again 975mb Fri 8th, the latter working its way down into France turning the winds from SE or S earlier in the week into a full E-ly by Mon 11th. HP then develops 1030mb covering most of Britain until Sat 16th cutting off the E-ly, but drifting S and fading by Tue 19th with zonal flow and LP approaching NW Scotland.

ECM concurs

GEFS - mean temps near norm through the next fortnight but with steadily increasing spread of ens members (op has a rather cold few days around the 12th). Rain in some ens members now and then throughout though op and control rather dry; small amounts generally but heavy at times in W especially SW.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Useful summary: the GFS OZ Op and control backs away from delivering sub -10 Hpa - and makes the cold advection quite transitory, but possibly a couple of dry and sunny day's with crisp mornings.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DPower
03 March 2024 19:47:09
First post for a while. Sitting back waiting to see if a worthwhile east, north easterly feed is going to affect the UK and still none the wiser. Made the mistake this morning of viewing the 0z Icon run first and thought we were in for a day of upgrades for cold wintry outlook. The 12z ecm det shows what still could be possible although the run implodes towards the end. Having said that how often if ever do the ecm t216 - t240 charts come off. 
Worth giving it another 3 to 4 days I think to see if we can squeeze something memorable out of this strat warming and reversal  for time period 10th to 20th March.  We shall see.
 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 March 2024 08:00:32
WX temp charts not withdrawing the freezing weather as much as shown yesterday, Still 'blue' from Norway and N Baltic eastwards through Russia, and still cool along the fringes of this including Britain. But the areas of cooler weather in continental Europe have diminished and something seriously warm is moving N from Africa to affect the N shores of the Mediterranean. Rain in week 1 for France, Spain and N Mediterranean, with Britain on the fringe of this area; in week 2 the rain moves north to affect Britain (esp W) , France and Norway. Anything really dry is week 1 and Scandinavia only as far as W Europe goes, less than previously shown.

GFS Op - LP in Atlantic spawning troughs and areas of LP pushing down towards Spain this week e.g. 995mb Galicia Fri 8th after which the area affected by LP aligns W-E across Britain 995mb Sun 10th. This main  LP then re-groups just W of Britain and associated centres run NE-wards affecting W Britain (980 mb Kerry Wed 13th, to 980 mb Hebrides; 990mb Kerry Fri 15th, 995mb Wales Mon 18th) with mostly SW-lies for the east.

ECM - introduces interval of weak HP Sun 10th (the potential trough is placed over Switzerland) before rejoining GFS with the NE-tracking LPs

GEFS - mean temps a little cooler at first and milder later but generally close to norm, good agreement from ens members to Tue 12th and not too much variation after that. A burst of rain today, then dry for a few days but most ens members showing rain at intervals after Sun 10th, for the S & W in greater amounts than yesterday, still fairly dry in N & E. . 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 March 2024 08:15:34

First post for a while. Sitting back waiting to see if a worthwhile east, north easterly feed is going to affect the UK and still none the wiser. Made the mistake this morning of viewing the 0z Icon run first and thought we were in for a day of upgrades for cold wintry outlook. The 12z ecm det shows what still could be possible although the run implodes towards the end. Having said that how often if ever do the ecm t216 - t240 charts come off. 
Worth giving it another 3 to 4 days I think to see if we can squeeze something memorable out of this strat warming and reversal  for time period 10th to 20th March.  We shall see.
 

Originally Posted by: DPower 

Yes - agree, its been the nearly model year for cold; with cold spells being modelled for  a while, often intermittently, by the flip-flop GFS and more consistently at times by the mermaid like ECM, but there’s always plenty of runs and perts deflecting any cold air somewhere else, (Shetland or Greece), and this SSW ship looks like it will go the same route as all the others, as if piloted by captain Pete Tong. We live in faint hope, straw in hand for the singing to start.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Brian Gaze
04 March 2024 08:19:54
The potential for further flooding looks more of a concern than a late season cold blast IMO. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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