theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2024 07:20:21
WX temp charts up and running again. Next two weeks are alike, warm across most of Europe including England and S Baltic, indeed becoming very warm in S France and Danube basin, cool in Scotland and N Baltic esp week 2, indeed cold in NW Russia. Mostly dry for Britain in week 1, with areas of rain around Iceland and across the Alps; in week 2 the former expands S-wards to reach Scotland and the latter dies out.

GFS Op - LP 990mb running across Scotland tomorrow with trough reaching to the S drifting to the N while HP tentatively approaches from the SW but only close enough to Britain to provide dry-ish(?) NW-lies. Shallow LPs cross first Scotland 1000mb Fri 5th and England 1005mb Tue 9th before HP re-establishes from the SW Fri 12th.

ECM - like GFS at first but the LP Fri 5th arrives a day earlier and persists off NW Scotland at least until Sat 6th instead of moving on.

GEM - makes even more of next week's LP as it crosses Britain to settle 990mb Yorkshire coast Sat 6th.

GEFS - contrasts with the WX charts. Becoming cool in the next few days and staying on the cool side to Fri 5th with fair agreement but more prolonged in Scotland, then mean temp back to norm with less agreement. Small amounts of rain from the beginning of July (some earlier in the NW), not a lot but still rather more than shown yesterday. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2024 07:24:05
HLB over Greenland on all Ops this morning as we head into July . First week of the month looks awful especially in the NW.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2024 07:30:37

HLB over Greenland on all Ops this morning as we head into July . First week of the month looks awful especially in the NW.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Pessimistic, I think, for a viewpoint from Essex. Certainly no heatwave, but it looks bright and mostly dry for England until the end of that first week, though I wouldn't book a holiday in n Scotland.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2024 07:44:11

Pessimistic, I think, for a viewpoint from Essex. Certainly no heatwave, but it looks bright and mostly dry for England until the end of that first week, though I wouldn't book a holiday in n Scotland.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Yes maybe the famous NW/SE split. So ok ish here but I'm looking for Heatwaves. 

On a entirely different note
Why has TWO gone weirdly black and odd is it deliberate? Anyone else got this?
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
26 June 2024 07:45:38
The forum software was upgraded earlier today. Please use this thread to ask questions or report issues:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24028-Forum-upgraded-26th-June-2024 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2024 07:46:23

Yes maybe the famous NW/SE split. So ok ish here but I'm looking for Heatwaves. On a entirely different noteWhy has TWO gone weirdly black and odd is it deliberate? Anyone else got this?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


See Daily Thread in Forum Arms EDIT - crossed ... er ... in post with Brian's above.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Taylor1740
26 June 2024 10:57:11

HLB over Greenland on all Ops this morning as we head into July . First week of the month looks awful especially in the NW.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes as the GFS had been consistently showing for several days now, I don't check the other models but sounds like they have come in line now. Looks poor for the majority and certainly no sign of a heatwave for at least the first 10 days of July.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
Saint Snow
26 June 2024 12:37:53
We seem stuck in a repeating pattern where high pressure sets up to the west of the BI, whilst low pressure systems move over the top and sink ESE'wards to SE'wards close to or over the UK

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Zubzero
26 June 2024 12:41:37

Yes maybe the famous NW/SE split. So ok ish here but I'm looking for Heatwaves. On a entirely different noteWhy has TWO gone weirdly black and odd is it deliberate? Anyone else got this?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It's defaulted to dark mode after forum upgrade. Click on the three lines opposite TWO at the top right to change. 
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2024 18:28:10
There are just some hints on both the GEFS and GEM ensembles of something warmer from about the 6th July. Very very early days though. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
johncs2016
26 June 2024 18:35:02

There are just some hints on both the GEFS and GEM ensembles of something warmer from about the 6th July. Very very early days though. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


That is within the weekend after the upcoming UK General Election which is also round about the time when I will be expecting to travel down to Hawick to visit my family, so I will certainly be more than happy if we can get some decent weather then.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+1
White Meadows
26 June 2024 23:11:19

It's defaulted to dark mode after forum upgrade. Click on the three lines opposite TWO at the top right to change. 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Nope, that doesn’t work either. 

Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2024 06:04:56
Terrible output continues.  There is so much heat in Europe but UK managing to avoid it with quite extreme low pressures for July plowing in. Very disappointing 

Hints still in the ensembles of a warmer 2nd week of July. But long way out.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2024 06:45:44
WX temp charts stuck at 22nd June; TWO not the only site with problems.
GFS Op - Quite a deep LP currently crossing Scotland and moving N/NE-wards, not affecting S England very much. By Sun 30th HP is not too far to the SW, with cooler W/NW-ly winds for Britain; 'useable' weather in the S but unsettled in the far N for a week. The next LP arrives off Cape Wrath 990mb Sat 6th and meanders around, filling and moving S to the Channel  1000mb by Thu 11th. Re-load of HP from the SW for Sat 13th.
/
ECM - HP affecting more of Britain for the beginning of next week, but followed by a more comprehensive decline later; from Thu 4th the area of HP is well south, in Biscay, and a broad area of LP is filling all the area between Iceland and Scotland
/
GEM - as GFS but throws in another LP for N Scotland 985mb Thu 4th moving with the W-ly flow.
/
GEFS - temps up and down, not too far from norm for the next two weeks, though both op & control suggest cooler periods for the S Wed 3rd & Sun 7th, Scotland remaining on the cool side between these dates. Rain increasing in frequency and amount after Mon 1st though not dramatically so (a few ens members have big falls in the SW around the 7th).
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2024 07:38:26
The ECM 46 dayer has unsettled conditions all the way  for 6 weeks now. This is actually good news because it's a terrible model and the opposite is likely. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ozone_aurora
27 June 2024 07:45:00
Looks like a cool, unsettled 2012, 2009 or 1988 style July coming up (although the 1st one did just one warm, sunny week later). Perhaps this one will turn rather warm later but probably staying quite convective too.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2024 08:05:49
High pressure sitting over the Baltic states appears to be the problem for UK heat lovers according to the GFS Ops. Don't have enough time today to look in more detail but this is effectively blocking the progress of Atlantic lows while not being close enough to the UK to deflect them further north. Consequently they arrive in the UK and float around for days on end. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2024 08:20:11
Yes hard to find much optimism for July. The first 2 weeks look low pressure dominated.  The only crumb I can see is some ensembles stall LPs to our west and this pumps up some heat especially to the SE. So maybe quite warm here.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2024 10:25:37

Yes hard to find much optimism for July. The first 2 weeks look low pressure dominated.  The only crumb I can see is some ensembles stall LPs to our west and this pumps up some heat especially to the SE. So maybe quite warm here.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Backing this up, the AIFS (AI ECM) latest run has a stalling LP to our west and the South gets very warm. Not perfect by any means but atm it's the best option.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=264&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2024 11:17:10
GFS 06z Op shows warmer upper air over Svalbard than most of the UK for a number of days. Here's an example .....
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=168&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&tr=6&mv=0#mapref 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Rob K
27 June 2024 13:21:11
I'll take P27 from the 6Z GEFS please.

That's an outlier but the mean does steadily recover after the first week of July. Let's not write off the whole month yet.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2024 16:45:55
Better 12s , much less Greenland blocking so HP has more influence in the South. Still not great but better. Hopefully a trend we can build on.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
White Meadows
27 June 2024 17:43:44
Overall underwhelming output today if it’s calm and reliable summer warmth you seek. At the moment there’s lots of signals for large low pressure just to our west which will ramp up wind speeds again, making for a blowy and potentially dull start to July. 
Let’s hope a pattern change is in the offing soon. 

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