theweatheroutlook

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ARTzeman
21 June 2024 10:10:29
IMANSF22               13.5c           Nicks'1BATH75   13.2c
Metcheck                 12.97c           Anomaly           -1.18c
Netweather              13.49c           Anomaly           -0.62c
Peasedown St John  13.48c           Anomaly           -1.72c.        




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
21 June 2024 13:12:09
Hadley

12.6 to the 20th

1.5c below the 61 to 90 average
1.4c below the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
22 June 2024 09:15:58
IMANSF143               14.0c          Nicks'1BATH75        14.2
Metcheck                  13.14c             Anomaly            -1.0c
Netweather               13.65c             Anomaly            -0.46c 
Peasedown St John   13.48c             Anomaly            1.72c.    




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
22 June 2024 14:37:06
Hadley

12.7 to the 21st

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.3c below the 81 to 10 average
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2024 17:15:55
We’d need daily averages of around 18c to the end of the month now to end with a CET over 14c.  The current output suggests it’s possible. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Quantum
23 June 2024 05:48:06
Done all years since 1993 now for first date 30C hit.


May: 3 (earliest: 23rd May 2010)
June: 16
July: 8
August: 3
Never: 1 (1993)

 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
ARTzeman
23 June 2024 08:59:30
IMANSF143              14.8c    Nicks'1BATH75      13.6c
Metcheck                 13.29c       Anomaly            -0.35c
Netweather              13.79c       Anomaly            -0.31c
Peasedown St John  13.8c         Anomaly            -1.4c.    




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Brian Gaze
23 June 2024 12:56:32
TWO at 13.3°C which is still somewhat higher than the UK Met.

1961-1990: -0.80°C
1971-2000: -0.40°C
1981-2010: -0.80°C
1991-2020: -1.40°C
1659-2020: -1.00°C


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin D
23 June 2024 13:31:05
Hadley

12.9 to the 22nd

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average
Bertwhistle
23 June 2024 14:27:47
Half degree increase over 4 days, before the really warm weather has arrived. What are current estimates from posters, based on forecasts? 8 days worth of data to go in, with 5 of those from today looking very warm (18-20?) I'll go for 5 18s with 3 more 16s. So I'll have a late month shot with 14.1°C. 
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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Retron
23 June 2024 14:51:07

Half degree increase over 4 days, before the really warm weather has arrived. What are current estimates from posters, based on forecasts? 8 days worth of data to go in, with 5 of those from today looking very warm (18-20?) I'll go for 5 18s with 3 more 16s. So I'll have a late month shot with 14.1°C. 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Having clicked the Manchester link and then somehow come back to Leysdown, I've deleted and reposted - this time with the proper figures!

Using the 6z GFS for Manchester (a crude proxy, but it works), you would end up with 13.8. There are three exceptionally high days (21.5, 20, 20.5), but then it turns much cooler with 13, 14, 12 and 12.

Bear in mind though the GFS isn't exactly covering itself in glory at the moment, and the end of the month is still very much up in the air!
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
Rob K
23 June 2024 19:17:46
It would be nice if June comes in below average, both to show that it is still possible, and also to silence all the idiots on Twitter who say the Met Office is going to call June the hottest on record.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2024 04:49:05

Half degree increase over 4 days, before the really warm weather has arrived. What are current estimates from posters, based on forecasts? 8 days worth of data to go in, with 5 of those from today looking very warm (18-20?) I'll go for 5 18s with 3 more 16s. So I'll have a late month shot with 14.1°C. 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

I’m going to stick my neck out and say 14.25.  Temperatures here have been at least a couple of degrees more than forecast since Thursday.  Also, given the TWO figures are higher than Hadley, I think there could be an upward adjustment at month end. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
+1
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2024 05:34:54

I’m going to stick my neck out and say 14.25.  Temperatures here have been at least a couple of degrees more than forecast since Thursday.  Also, given the TWO figures are higher than Hadley, I think there could be an upward adjustment at month end. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



I thought we didn't get adjustments anymore?
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Retron
24 June 2024 06:11:07

It would be nice if June comes in below average, both to show that it is still possible, and also to silence all the idiots on Twitter who say the Met Office is going to call June the hottest on record.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Oh, it is the hottest on record so far - in terms of globally, and in the northern hemisphere, just not the UK. No doubt when that gets reported (via the Met Office) those people will then point out that it's been "freezing cold" here, so global warming is a scam.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world 

Incidentally using the Manchester proxy method this morning gives 13.1 up to yesterday (assuming that 12.9 wasn't 12.85, otherwise it's more likely to be 13.0), then 14.1 by the end of the month (the end of which is a few degrees warmer than yesterday's 6z run).
 
Leysdown, north Kent
Bertwhistle
24 June 2024 08:33:16

I thought we didn't get adjustments anymore?

Originally Posted by: Col 


Interesting thought. I note that the HadCET data still says 'provisional'. Maybe it's just no longer the regular adjustment.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gavin D
24 June 2024 13:23:15
Hadley

13.1 to the 23rd

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2024 16:48:47

I thought we didn't get adjustments anymore?

Originally Posted by: Col 

You may be right as we haven’t had any recently.  I’m still saying 14.25c. 😉
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Brian Gaze
24 June 2024 17:30:03
Some of these could be turning red soon:

To 23 June the TWO tracker is:
13.5°C

1961-1990: -0.60°C
1971-2000: -0.20°C
1981-2010: -0.60°C
1991-2020: -1.20°C
1659-2020: -0.80°C

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Bertwhistle
24 June 2024 19:03:28
Of note is that no single CET mean day has reached last year's average for every day of the month yet. About to change. 
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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Quantum
25 June 2024 06:32:56
Date of first 30C for all years since 1988

May: 3 (earliest 23rd May 2010)
June: 18
July: 10
August: 4 (latest 8th August 1998)
Never: 1 (1993)

Average: June 30th.

If we hit 30C today we will have done so a bit earlier than average.
 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
+2
ARTzeman
25 June 2024 10:59:56
IMANSF143             16.1c          Nicks'1BATH75      14.1c
Metcheck                 13.91c            Anomaly            -0.24c
Netweather              14.22c            Anomaly            0.13c
Peasedown St John  14.15c            Anomaly            -1.05c.
 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
25 June 2024 12:29:24
HadCET 13.3°C to 24th. Recovering steadily.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gavin D
25 June 2024 13:05:24
Hadley

13.3 to the 24th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average
Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2024 17:38:40

Date of first 30C for all years since 1988

May: 3 (earliest 23rd May 2010)
June: 18
July: 10
August: 4 (latest 8th August 1998)
Never: 1 (1993)

Average: June 30th.

If we hit 30C today we will have done so a bit earlier than average.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Well we just about managed it today 30.0c in Chertsey.  As you say a fairly average time to do it late June.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1

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