Thanks 👍😄

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Am I correct in saying what we have over England and Wales today (01.08.2024) is a Col?

There's a col over northern England on this chart, the T+3 chart from the 6z GFS - Meteociel is useful as it shows a much finer pressure chart.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/28/98/3_515UKcun2.GIF 

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Thanks. I thought there was. It is important term I often seen my old books of Meteorology. Not seen the term used much on Google.

Stunning GFS 12z and UKMO not bad either. 

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I can confirm that I am very much in northern England!

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🤣🤣🤣

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Again hints of heatwaves this morning in the output.  🤞🤞🤞

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WX temps not changing much - rathe cool from Iceland to Norway, pretty warm over NW continental Europe, and Britain sandwiched between - so N Scotland cool, but some quite hot weather for the SE. Rain mostly for the N Atlantic, affecting NW Scotland in week 1 and most of Scotland in week 2, while dry weather over France moves N-wards into S England.

GFS Op - Up to next weekend, the pattern is for a persistent LP between Scotland and Iceland with W-lies predominating; unsettled in Scotland, with occasionally a trough reaching further S e.g. Tue 6th but HP just about hanging on for the S Coast. Then it's GFS' turn to bring in ex-hurricane Debby (previously only shown on ECM), moving slowly N-wards off the US coast on Tue 6th but from Sun 11th making a rapid dash across the Atlantic to arrive in C Scotland 1000mb Tue 13th. Pressure then rises for the rest of that week but gives way to slack LP by Sun 18th.

ECM - like GFS to Sun 11th but keeps the ex-hurricane over Newfoundland and writes in a ridge of HP for Britain that weekend

GEM - Intermediate between GFS and ECM, running Debby to the N of Scotland

GEFS - in the S, temps up and down either side of norm until Sun 11th, then the mean settles to cooler with (as yesterday) the op as a warm outlier. Almost no rain for a week, then small amounts in some ens members, a few sharp peaks in the SW. In Scotland and N England, temp profile similar but with less optimism from the op run, rain in modest amounts in most runs at most times.

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Yes, GFS and ECM bring heat back in different guises. GFS Ops run is very interesting with an ex-hurricane appearing to encourage high pressure to develop over the UK in its wake. Not convinced by that one yet! But my phone app is showing low to mid-20s for next week in my locality which is fine by me when I'm working!

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Let see as I think August will be the best month in term of warmth and any  hurricane appear will prevent nasty northern blocking or wasted HP sitting in the Atlantic.  Apps always undercook temps and over reacting daily overcast clouds symbols. 

Good don’t want Autumn for a long while as we just exited year long Autumn few weeks ago. 

There are also hints of Autumn. Granted it's at FI 240 hrs range in GFS so cannot be treated as an actual forecast, but has been popping up in a few runs lately.

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Yes, the GFS soon changes its mind!

What has prompted the change to autumnal conditions? 

😍😍😍

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WX temps - the 'stratified' look to the isotherms ranging from cold to the north and hot to the south is still there, just about, in week 1 but there's a change to week 2 from yesterday with much cooler air moving south all the way across Britain and down into France while in contrast the E Baltic and esp Finland become very warm. The Mediterranean also a little less hot. Rain in week 1 widespread in small amounts (except Spain and Turkey). A big change in week 2 with heavy rain for NW Europe and especially Britain while E Europe becomes very dry.

GFS Op - Until Sat 10th, LP between Scotland and Iceland extending its influence almost down to S Britain. Then LP develops in Biscay and runs irregularly N-wards across Britain, persisting and  reinforced by more LP from Atlantic possibly resulting from ex-hurricane Debby in a rather disorganised way, ending up N Norway Sat 17th. Brief HP before a new trough from Iceland Mon 19th.

ECM - agrees to Sat 10th but then Icelandic LP moves N-wards and allows a broad W-ly flow with no contribution from Biscay. By Tue 13th pressure is dropping over Britain with a mid-Atlantic trough moving in from the west, backed up by Debby which is more strongly developed near Nova Scotia than shown by GFS.

GEM - rather like ECM but with no sign of Debby

GEFS - temps up and down either side of norm until Sat 10th, then fair agreement on the cool side of norm through to Mon 19th (yesterday's Op run warmth has gone), Rain in the S likely to start Fri 9th and continue in moderate amounts; in Scotland and NW England the rain starts earlier, around Mon 5th, and is somewhat heavier

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Well at least for the South the next week is looking OK with temperatures around 23-25 degrees and generally dry. For the following week it will be disappointing if it does turn autumnal if indeed the models are correct....

Looking like remnants of former tropical storms being thrown into the mix. May work to our favour by encouraging brief plume-like sets up or it'll just be the same old same old with more in the way of a maritime type theme. 

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GFS 6z pumps up the heat for next weekend. 50/50 whether we get another heatwave starting in about 6 days.

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And after the weekend? Back to square one.

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TS Debby, even more so than most, will be giving the models problems in a week or so. Will it become a hurricane? (latest is probably yes). Will it move up the US coast into the Atlantic? (latest has it making a landfall in Carolina). But both these have changed in the last 24hrs - and GFS is already being inconsistent.

WX temps - still the same gradation from cool/cold in the far N Atlantic to warm/hot in the Mediterranean, with Britain between the two, cool in the NW, passably warm in the SE - but less general cooling in NW Europe than shown yesterday in week 2, and equally less warming in the E Baltic. Very hot in Spain week 1 and in SE Europe week 2. Rain in week 1 for Scotland and Scandinavia, becoming more extensive and moving SE to affect most of NW Europe week 2, but less so than yesterday.

GFS Op - for most of this week LP N/NW of Scotland and HP close to S England with W-lies for all, and fronts moving across, more active in the N. Pressure dropping to the SW Sat 10th, at first interacting with continental LP, later becoming the first of a series moving E into Britain before moving away NE-wards (3 separate events, Tue 13th 990mb Bristol Channel, Thu 15th 980mb E Ireland, Mon 19th 1000mb C Scotland - the last of these could incorporate remnants of Debby)

ECM - differs from GFS after Sat 10th, on that date no more than a kink in the isobars, but Debby then puts a lot of energy into the N Atlantic producing deep depression 965mb SW of Iceland with moderately high pressure for UK throughout and brisk W-lies later

GEM - noticeably unlike the above, pressure rises across Britain generally from Thu 8th and barring slight dents from ex-Debby Mon 12th 1005mb Hebrides and continental LP Tue 13th SE England pressure remains high throughout, eventually becoming centred over Scotland.

GEFS -in the S, warm around Mon 6th and Sat 10th, the degree of the warmth in the latter very variable as between ens members; cooler (a degree or two below norm) between and after these dates, small amounts of rain in many ens members from Sat 10th onwards. In the N, only the first warm episode, otherwise near or a little below norm in most ens members, rain in moderate amounts on most days, perhaps a brief dry slot around Tue 7th, always heavier in NW

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GEM couldn't be more different from GFS this morning. The latter has been very keen on autumn arriving in mid August, which is not what I want to see for my week in Cornwall!

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Some very hot runs in the GEFS. Still possible we could reach the mid 30Cs this summer.

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Yes I noticed the 18Z brought 24C 850s across the south briefly but the modelled 2m temps were only 31C, which seems odd.

Reminds me of a fairly recent occasion when we had 850s well above 20C but with very depressed 2m temps. When was that?

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The one common theme of this summer for me wrt the model output is not to put much, if any, faith in any charts for more than the immediate few days ahead. There have been a few occasions where GFS and ECM op runs at different times have shown HP building in quite strongly over the British Isles about a week later only for it to be either watered down or removed completely. I seem to remember that back in late May, there was a period when the output looked quite promising for a settled spell at the start of June as the models at the time were indicating a fairly strong HP cell coming in from the atlantic. Unfortunately, developments to the NW soon put paid to that and what happened back then seems to have set the tone for the summer, in a lot of ways.

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