Daily weather by email
14 day outlook
Monthly outlook
Seasonal outlook
Christmas weather
Charts and data
Will it be a white Christmas? Follow the countdown to 25 December 2026 and see how the odds of snow are shaping up across the UK and Ireland. Our model based regional outlooks run from late July, and our regularly updated, forecaster written perspectives are now underway.
Can't wait to find out if it will snow this Christmas? Play our free festive games to help pass the time.
New for Christmas 2026
Play Santa's Summit
Convert rain to snow and build a covering.
Play Santa's Snow Show
Solve the puzzles and learn fun weather facts.
Play Santa's Puzzle Forecast
Turn the rain to snow to save the big day.
Play Save our White Christmas
We provide two perspectives on the Christmas 2026 forecast:
We're back — it seems to come round quicker with every passing year! This year’s fun look at the Christmas weather prospects is underway, and regular updates will follow in the coming weeks. At this stage, we’re focusing on analogue years, which means finding the closest matches to 2026 and seeing what the weather was like at Christmas in those years. We're also looking at the seasonal models as well as teleconnections like El Niño, which offer some correlations with the UK’s winter weather.
That said, this is just for fun — usually it’s not until the middle of December that the fog really starts to lift and the Christmas Day weather comes into sight. So please enjoy this feature, but remember we’re not claiming to do the impossible and give an accurate forecast for Christmas Day months in advance!
What's the latest outlook for a white Christmas?
The thirteenth update makes no change to the chance a white Christmas. The 30 day analogue tracker has the top three matches as:
2012 (2012): high pressure centred to the south of the UK, mostly mild
1974 (2011): low pressure centred to the northeast, high pressure centred to the south west, colder air pushing southwards
2002 (2004): an Atlantic flow, colder air in the northern half of the UK
(Year from the previous update)
This update sees big changes! In come 1974 and 2002, out go 2011 and 2004. In 1974 a long fetch southwesterly brought a mild Christmas. In 2002 high pressure was centred over continental Europe, with a southwesterly flow bringing a relatively mild 25th December.
Christmas 2012 brought a typical pattern, with an area of low pressure to the north of the UK. A westerly flow could have produced wintry showers over the northern mountains.
In recent days 2009 and 2010 have dropped rapidly and are now positioned at 22 and 67 respectively.
The super El Niño event is more supportive of stormy spells during this part of the winter than snowy and cold ones. However, the current pattern doesn't fit in with this profile, and some seasonal computer models are indicating more blocked weather patterns developing this winter. Generally that increases the chance of cold periods, and for this reason we're not reducing the percentage chance on this update.
Percentage chance of snow on Christmas Day:
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 11%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 7%
Updates: 1: 01/09/26, 2: 05/09, 3: 12/09, 4: 17/09, 5: 20/09, 6: 27/09, 7: 03/10, 8: 10/10, 9: 17/10, 10: 23/10, 11: 25/10, 12: 29/10, 13: 04/11
Updated daily and generated automatically from long-range computer model data.
Next video forecast update will be in November.
Charts and data to help you make your own forecast.
The GEFS35 charts don't yet reach the Christmas period.
What do they mean? Blue shading indicates a colder than average air mass, while red indicates a warmer than average one. Therefore, if you're hoping for cold and potentially snowy weather it's blue you want to see over the UK.
If the past is the best guide to the future, you may find it interesting to check out these charts from Christmases gone. Links open in a new window.
Average maximum temperatures on 25th December during the 1991–2020 period are shown on the chart below.