WX offers some optimism but not until week2 (Jam tomorrow but never jam today?) Week 1 as for so long has cold air flooding W Europe and warmth pushing N past the Black Sea plus a trace of warmth in S Spain. In week 2, there is quite a turnaround with a transfer of warmth from Ukraine into N continental Europe, S Spain getting hot, and even Britain somewhat milder. Rain distributed across Europe in week 1, in week 2 for the Atlantic, Alps and W Mediterranean, and Turkey and correspondingly a dry, in places very dry, area developing from Biscay to N Sea to Baltic.
GFS Op - HP currently to the W of Britain moving ever W-wards and allowing LP to approach the N Sea with N-ly winds continuing to run down the east coast and even strengthen Wed 24th. Then an Atlantic LP runs SE-wards to Biscay 995mb Fri 26th drawing in slack but cold air across Britain. The LP centre then does a tour of Britain (via England, Scotland and Ireland in that order) finally clearing to France Thu 2nd. Although this brings back E-lies, they are from a milder source than at present, and the final frame Thu 9th shows HP building in from the SW.
ECM - rather like GFS, but the LP deepens significantly while touring Britain
GEFS - temps returning to norm around Sat 27th and mean staying there throughout, with variation in ens members setting i from around Thu 2nd. Small but frequent amounts of rain from the 27th in the S, rather more from that date in the N esp NW, but perhaps a little drier in the 2nd week of May.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl