We have returned to normal synoptics, which is the point I was trying to make. Low to the north, high to the south and jet riding across Scandi. The beast is very much dead

Of course because there is hot air nearby and dry ground, high sea temps etc, there is still a chance of very high temperatures especially for the south

I agree, this is probably the pattern as we move through August.

I just wonder though that with oscillations in the high, with it moving a little east at times, hot air will be sucked up and very high temperatures will be recorded not only in the southern but more northern areas as well.

It would be ironic with warm nights with a more typical SW or even S flow at times the Lancashire 'Central England' stations perform better than before now, and the CET for August will be better than anyone expected!

Very much a case of anything could happen next week.

Op run near the top towards the end, but by no means on its own, and several members build the heat earlier and hold it at 20C for some time. On the other hand the control run is a different beast altogether.

JFF have a look at runs 4 and 20. Run 4 has 8 days of maxima above 32C from Aug 3 to 10, with night-time temps never below 20C!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=319&y=107&run=6&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

This is the Op run on WZ. Brian's charts have 37C max at the same time.

Hottest GFS chart ever seen?

Permalink: https://i.imgur.com/rOTB4kM.png

(Note also the 40C in the Netherlands which would be an all-time record)

not only is your ability to read models suspect, your geography is pretty woeful too 

If HP does become established more to the N/NE, it would in a lot of ways be a return to the pattern we had during the second half of May and the first week of June, when Scotland (most of it anyway) had numerous days of strong sunshine and clear blue skies while southernmost counties of England were under threat of thundery outbreaks spreading up from France.

Not just Scotland - Most of England and Wales (and NI) enjoyed good conditions from that set-up.

As long as we see A COOL DOWN but not a BREAKDOWN im happy. 25 MAX. this extreme heat is no good for man or beast. nice to see a rest bite over the weekend. eyes on storm watch.

CHARTS AND MODELS

Something to chew over 

I have just been looking at the cloud cover charts and even though it is now looking dry here tomorrow evening disappointingly it looks like the lunar eclipse will be totally clouded out.

GFS 12z different to the 6z update by Sat pm.

High pressure standing ground a little more compared to the earlier run. What with all the heat I wonder if the block is a little harder to shift?

Even wetter across the south on Sunday :(

You're an embarrassment to your username

Not sure just how much, if any rain to expect here if I'm honest. A cool down to still above average is acceptable in this forever giving summer 

Just hope the heat returns soon

Yes look like the HP nosing in on Saturday from the SW so should move further for Sunday and then keep building for next week with temperatures rising every day.

Indeed Saint, and the temperatures during that spell were just right for me; mid 20s at best and so the heat never felt as intense as it did during the late June/early July spell and it will have done in many areas today and throughout this week.

A return to a set-up like that would be ideal for me.

That's some serious heat down there. (Using the WZ chart because the colours look more impressive )

The heat so widespread even down to the Atlantic next to Portugal and France so Uk would guaranteed to get hit fully and not just the SE.  At least everything going on track and heat building up slowly than quickie types.   Almost like August 2003 after a unsettled blip in end of July 2003 like this coming weekend.

GEM gets there a different route to GFS but is still hot by day 8.

GFS getting crazy hot again by August 5th. 20c 850s in the SW. 

Setups like this would give widespread 40s in France and mid-40s in Iberia with plenty of wildfires (as the extra vegetation there from the wet May-July period would only act as extra fuel).

Decent support in the ensembles too.

Just when it looks like getting interesting a deep low comes blasting out past Greenland and flattens everything out.

Edit... but the heat somehow fights back