Keep saying it and you will be right eventually!

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It will soon be autumn, then Christmas and spring again. That's my prediction.

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Think we need to keep an eye on those hot temperatures over France in the 7-10 ten day time-frame.

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Tell me about it. I’m right in the middle of them.

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I don’t think the pattern is broken, it’s just shifted slightly. It’s a good job it has too, otherwise with continued drought we’d be in sheep dip by Autumn.  We needed this rain to ease water supplies and grow crops!  

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I thought I was the pessimistic one, but your posts are bordering on suicidal. 

We've had an amazing summer. We've had one weekend of rain, and then it's back to square one. I don't know what you are seeing, but I think you are being unduly pessimistic.

It will, as Brian said, be Autumn soon, so of course things will take a down turn, but no time soon.

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Yes from the 6 charts I saw above show up to 32C next Saturday now so that being upped on the latest runs so it might continue to change to show real heat coming back here.  Also the great heat in France have to go somewhere and go north as no heat can't go reverse back south since the heat are coming from the south in first place and need to travel so that why UK would be targeted.

"The blocked patterns that emerged in late winter brought us the severe cold in March so I would think a continuation of this pattern would eventually lead to some pretty cold weather by late autumn "

 

Which is exactly what Metcheck is predicting at the moment.  While I don't believe for a moment their day to day forecasts for months out, I think that the overall patterns  that they show are a form of guidance. That cold signal for late November/December/January has been showing up repeatedly this last few weeks.

 

CJH

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This is shaping up to be a seriously furnace like 12z GFS. Look at the uppers just across the channel at 144hrs.
Records will be smashed if this verifies.

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So much heat have to go somewhere so UK should get hit otherwise the opportunity will be biggest wasted not to get any records.  

The GEM 12z ENS suite is very warm - much warmer than GFS 6z. There is a fair bit of scatter but the ENS mean is well above average 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

36C in East Anglia on Monday 6th. Quite different to the last run though

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018072912/198-582UK.GIF?29-12

How many do we add on 

A scorcher from GFS 12z 100F territory in the SE

Probably 2-3C or thereabouts. So could be record breaking. By Tuesday cooler air is seeping south although should still see 30C+ in the south east.

 you just made me fancy another beer.

Special run from start to finish from GFS.  

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22 uppers clipping s/e think that would also be record? looks better in wetter GW

Jiries will be happy as he is moving to Kent 😀

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these runs are getting hotter by the day. I wanna cry. far far to hot. 100f looks deadly for some who are not used to or can not handle this extreme heat.....

I happily slept in Panamint Springs with no air con when night-time temperatures didn't fall below 36C. I fully accept the heat is uncomfortable for some people and that it can cause health problems in certain cases, but virtually anything can. However for the vast majority it should not be a serious problem and I suspect cold weather is a bigger killer even in the UK.

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little doubt he will get the ferry to France insane heat

 

 

Some amazing heat in France on that run widespread 40s upto 44c next Sunday and Monday.  40c somewhere in France 8 days in a row.

 

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Not much to worry about at the moment, TBH. Go by the ECM ensembles - they beat out the GFS with the handling of the last hot spell - and you'll see that high 20s, perhaps clipping 30, is the most you can expect. <10% chance of low 30s instead.

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature

Anything approaching mid 30s is a complete and utter outlier.

The 6z GEFS is the latest set, but I'd imagine the 12z set will show the 12z GFS has really gone off on one.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0&ext=1&type=3

EDIT: And yes, it has. More of those silly >22C minimums, too, a dead giveaway.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

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