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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
29 July 2018 12:30:38


the pattern is broken and I don't think it will return in the same way. We already see the jet digging south and atlantic systems trying to cut through. These may serve to pump the heat up briefly but I think my mid August we will be in a cooler westerly regime


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Keep saying it and you will be right eventually!


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Brian Gaze
29 July 2018 12:34:56


the pattern is broken and I don't think it will return in the same way. We already see the jet digging south and atlantic systems trying to cut through. These may serve to pump the heat up briefly but I think my mid August we will be in a cooler westerly regime


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


It will soon be autumn, then Christmas and spring again. That's my prediction.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin P
29 July 2018 12:37:17

Think we need to keep an eye on those hot temperatures over France in the 7-10 ten day time-frame.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
29 July 2018 12:38:23


Think we need to keep an eye on those hot temperatures over France in the 7-10 ten day time-frame.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Tell me about it. I’m right in the middle of them.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
29 July 2018 12:46:12


the pattern is broken and I don't think it will return in the same way. We already see the jet digging south and atlantic systems trying to cut through. These may serve to pump the heat up briefly but I think my mid August we will be in a cooler westerly regime


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I don’t think the pattern is broken, it’s just shifted slightly. It’s a good job it has too, otherwise with continued drought we’d be in sheep dip by Autumn.  We needed this rain to ease water supplies and grow crops!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
moomin75
29 July 2018 12:48:01


the pattern is broken and I don't think it will return in the same way. We already see the jet digging south and atlantic systems trying to cut through. These may serve to pump the heat up briefly but I think my mid August we will be in a cooler westerly regime


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I thought I was the pessimistic one, but your posts are bordering on suicidal. 


We've had an amazing summer. We've had one weekend of rain, and then it's back to square one. I don't know what you are seeing, but I think you are being unduly pessimistic.


It will, as Brian said, be Autumn soon, so of course things will take a down turn, but no time soon.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Jiries
29 July 2018 13:27:25


Think we need to keep an eye on those hot temperatures over France in the 7-10 ten day time-frame.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Yes from the 6 charts I saw above show up to 32C next Saturday now so that being upped on the latest runs so it might continue to change to show real heat coming back here.  Also the great heat in France have to go somewhere and go north as no heat can't go reverse back south since the heat are coming from the south in first place and need to travel so that why UK would be targeted.

RennesCJH
29 July 2018 13:41:08

"The blocked patterns that emerged in late winter brought us the severe cold in March so I would think a continuation of this pattern would eventually lead to some pretty cold weather by late autumn "


 


Which is exactly what Metcheck is predicting at the moment.  While I don't believe for a moment their day to day forecasts for months out, I think that the overall patterns  that they show are a form of guidance. That cold signal for late November/December/January has been showing up repeatedly this last few weeks.


 


CJH


ChrisH
sizzle
29 July 2018 15:12:26


 


It will soon be autumn, then Christmas and spring again. That's my prediction.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

moomin75
29 July 2018 16:24:36

This is shaping up to be a seriously furnace like 12z GFS. Look at the uppers just across the channel at 144hrs.
Records will be smashed if this verifies.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Jiries
29 July 2018 16:30:53


This is shaping up to be a seriously furnace like 12z GFS. Look at the uppers just across the channel at 144hrs.
Records will be smashed if this verifies.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


So much heat have to go somewhere so UK should get hit otherwise the opportunity will be biggest wasted not to get any records.  

29 July 2018 16:34:17


This is shaping up to be a seriously furnace like 12z GFS. Look at the uppers just across the channel at 144hrs.
Records will be smashed if this verifies.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


The GEM 12z ENS suite is very warm - much warmer than GFS 6z. There is a fair bit of scatter but the ENS mean is well above average 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

29 July 2018 16:40:01


This is shaping up to be a seriously furnace like 12z GFS. Look at the uppers just across the channel at 144hrs.
Records will be smashed if this verifies.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


36C in East Anglia on Monday 6th. Quite different to the last run though


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018072912/198-582UK.GIF?29-12

Polar Low
29 July 2018 16:41:51

How many do we add on embarassed



 


36C in East Anglia on Monday 6th. Quite different to the last run though


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018072912/198-582UK.GIF?29-12


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Gavin D
29 July 2018 16:47:04

A scorcher from GFS 12z 100F territory in the SE


ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.24dc762953ebf73a77c1d37a3d36ef26.png

29 July 2018 16:48:19


How many do we add on embarassed


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Probably 2-3C or thereabouts. So could be record breaking. By Tuesday cooler air is seeping south although should still see 30C+ in the south east.

Polar Low
29 July 2018 16:50:51

 you just made me fancy another beer.



 


Probably 2-3C or thereabouts. So could be record breaking. By Tuesday cooler air is seeping south although should still see 30C+ in the south east.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Ally Pally Snowman
29 July 2018 17:01:42

Special run from start to finish from GFS.  


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
29 July 2018 17:05:00

22 uppers clipping s/e think that would also be record? looks better in wetter GW




 


Probably 2-3C or thereabouts. So could be record breaking. By Tuesday cooler air is seeping south although should still see 30C+ in the south east.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Heavy Weather 2013
29 July 2018 17:11:24
Jiries will be happy as he is moving to Kent 😀
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
sizzle
29 July 2018 17:12:29

these runs are getting hotter by the day. I wanna cry. far far to hot. 100f looks deadly for some who are not used to or can not handle this extreme heat.....

Brian Gaze
29 July 2018 17:19:43


these runs are getting hotter by the day. I wanna cry. far far to hot. 100f looks deadly for some who are not used to or can not handle this extreme heat.....


Originally Posted by: sizzle 


I happily slept in Panamint Springs with no air con when night-time temperatures didn't fall below 36C. I fully accept the heat is uncomfortable for some people and that it can cause health problems in certain cases, but virtually anything can. However for the vast majority it should not be a serious problem and I suspect cold weather is a bigger killer even in the UK.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Polar Low
29 July 2018 17:21:20

little doubt he will get the ferry to France insane heat



 


 


Jiries will be happy as he is moving to Kent 😀

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Ally Pally Snowman
29 July 2018 17:22:44


22 uppers clipping s/e think that would also be record? looks better in wetter GW



 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Some amazing heat in France on that run widespread 40s upto 44c next Sunday and Monday.  40c somewhere in France 8 days in a row.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
29 July 2018 17:22:48


these runs are getting hotter by the day. I wanna cry. far far to hot. 100f looks deadly for some who are not used to or can not handle this extreme heat.....


Originally Posted by: sizzle 


Not much to worry about at the moment, TBH. Go by the ECM ensembles - they beat out the GFS with the handling of the last hot spell - and you'll see that high 20s, perhaps clipping 30, is the most you can expect. <10% chance of low 30s instead.


https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature


Anything approaching mid 30s is a complete and utter outlier.


The 6z GEFS is the latest set, but I'd imagine the 12z set will show the 12z GFS has really gone off on one.


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0&ext=1&type=3


EDIT: And yes, it has. More of those silly >22C minimums, too, a dead giveaway.


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1


 


Leysdown, north Kent

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