Scandi Spoiler low came more into play on the 12z. Small variations.

00z T+120:

12z T+120 (+12 cf 00z, ofc):

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GEFS all over the place but we could have a heatwave followed by a thundery breakdown. 

 

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ECM also brings the spoiler low down midweek although signs of high pressure building back afterwards. Very little consistency between models at the moment, I still haven’t a clue what to expect from the weekend onwards in Yorkshire. Could be quite warm and summery or could be a wet, windy and cold few days. At the moment it seems to be heading more towards the latter option.

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An interesting discussion over on NW regarding the set up. Models seem to be struggling big time.

I'm not bothered about heatwaves but I'm hoping and praying that August isn't wet and cloudy. UK summers are dull enough as it is.

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ECM means are a pretty good match for the Op. For  the south temps over 30c from Thursday  to Tuesday is not bad, then cooler but still dry and above average temps. Day 10 Azores high builds in again. All in all a very good run.

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48c for southern Spain by the end of the week (a new record apparently).

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That suit fine to me and depend how the ground dryness give the surface temps results v uppers outcome.   My 30C days tally so far now on the record matching 21 days in 2006 and then 6 days of +30C will add it up to 27 with possible getting 30 times by summer ends.

The ops showing a dry but cooler outlook than that shown last night. Mid 20s in the South I reckon.

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GFS op still remarkably dry in SE of UK over next 10 days but nearly normal service in NW

 

And still on course for record breaking temperatures in Portugal

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In cheddar July 2013 and 14 was sunnier than this July according to my solar panel and data . This June was also Sunnier than this July.

The Saturday chart has a "50" on it, as opposed to just a few white pixels. Of course, you can't actually see it as it's white-on-white!

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018073100/114-582SP.GIF?31-0

The record potential was mentioned on the news on the radio this morning, saying it's looking like Portugal will beat the record from 1977.

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Weather for the week ahead hedging its bets, some model runs show a HP cell west of Ireland with cool northerlies across the UK, but others(fewer) with the HP cell over Denmark and hot southerlies with storms.

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GFS Parallel looks explosive with a dartboard low engaging with the hot plume by Monday night.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=168&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1 

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Meanwhile ECM has the 0C isotherm into Scotland by 240 hours!

Roll a dice for August or consult the seaweed is my advice...

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The house I am moving in have solar panels and do they work well in winter sunshine regardless the temperatures? Just need to know.  Ensembles show hot then back to average with very little to no rain.

Another blast of heat this week is nailed. Anything beyond that is a bonus for me. 

 

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Who’s to say another heatwave won’t show up on the ensembles soon for mid month.
Last week this weekends heat was massively tempered back, almost disappeared at one point before resurgence a few days later.

I expect another 1 or 2 more after this heatwave gone and 1 in September.  It always a good signs when the ensembles show average conditions which most cases will change to show another spike when time come nearer.  Ground very soggy now and since the hottest day is less than a week away I would see temps around 33-34C at best.

Yes the colder air at that time point on the ECM op is quite marked on the deviation chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_34.png 

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I think just about every possible solution is being shown from 7 days time. Models are struggling with something.

from what ive been watching seeing and reading forecasters are saying turning hot at the weekend but NO MENTION OF THE WORD HEAT-WAVE. could just be a hot snap. before things return to average

I reckon the models have set to default for standard August weather!! Very confused they are 😁

Yes, I would be amazed if any reputable outlet used the word “heatwave” based on current output. It does look warm to hot (in the SE) towards the end of the working week before much less agreement beyond then.

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I was criticised for saying that once the pattern breaks it stays broken, but it appears to be the case. Still warm or hot in the south at times but rain chances increasing as the jet is now heading south

Good call from J Hammond it would seem. This morning's downpour was unexpected but a sign of things to come 

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