http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=72&carte=1007

Tues looking very hot in the SE corner and across France. then a dramatic cool off

I’m still confused as to when someone last cut their grass has any relevance to the current model output. It is relevant to past weather not the current output. Surely that is common sense? There are a couple of threads at least to discuss how the summer has been so far.

As for the current output, definitely much more normal albeit likely to be warmer than average for the south for much of the time. What it won’t be, if the charts are correct, is anticyclonic across the country. As has been the case in quite a few recent Augusts the Atlantic will be “paying a visit” on occasion.

We can debate until the cows come home about whether the current charts will verify but that is an entirely different matter to what they are showing.

The heat is in retreat for sure but for those of us in the south it still looks dry days 0 to 5 and 5 - 10 doesn't look particularly wet. Whereas in winter we need a treble twenty to get a proper wintry spell, in summer a double will suffice for decent conditions. Probably the opposite is true in Scotland. 

ECM looking very wet though

So when did your last cut your grass? 

As to the model output, I hear you even though the latest EC op begs to differ. 

 Actually it's a very dry run (for most of England) 

Looks dry for most of England. If we can salvage a mostly dry week then I'll be content.. 

And convective rainfall is usually hit and miss - so it's a reasonable assumption that most places will remain fairly dry.

Potential never achieved anything though!

 My Headmaster always said i never reached my potential.

It's the Model Output Thread - we deal only in potential here.

If not then it goes in the Current Conditions Thread.

Doesn’t look overly convective though, especially further south.

Sonetiimes it’s easy to forget this is the Mod thread with all these grass cutting reports!

Stay on topic please everyone.

Output all over the place this morning,  difficult to make a call beyond the 11th. GFS Op is a cool outlier some hotter runs showing up.

UKMO has some very warm but unsettled weather by day 6.

Wow, control run bringing another heatwave in earlier this morning. The summer haters may have to keep their eyes off the wooly drawer a while longer yet.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

the mean also looking healthy for prolonged warmth. 

Hope springs eternal ... this doesn't seem to be borne out by the previous post with its ensemble chart, which shows warm for a few days, then cool, then average for most runs. You might get lucky later in August, but by no means certain. At least there ought to be some rain in a week's time to revive the garden.

I would say that next weekend is looking quite grim with LP over the country. Useful rain but I wouldn't be planning a BBQ! Signs of an improvement after but I see no sign of a returning heatwave

Seems to be a common thing with the models of late - showing LP then watering it down. LP was supposed to be slap bang over the country this coming week, now it looks like staying further north and weaker. Then that ridiculous North Sea low that appeared and vanished within 24 hours. I’m certainly not changing my plans for next weekend just yet because it’s likely that the LP will once again either vanish or be modelled differently.

Looks more changeable but I don't think it would take much for "spoiler disturbances" to develop and pull the heat back into the south eastern corner at times. Next weekend is quite interesting for the rain potential as others have noted already. Coincides with the Perseids which would be a bake after the summer we've been having.

We might squeeze another warm day on Wed in SE according to ECM but a wet weekend is likely now. 

Looks like the heatwave is finally ending. I always thought the chance of three hot dry summer months on the bounce was pretty remote. Back to typical unsettled weather for all by the weekend.

Longer term signals look better though. Silly to write the month off when it’s only the 5th.