In answer to your question, yes I’m afraid it was by a few members plus the uncharacteristicly bold & unbalanced statements from John Hammond. 

Now that looks very unlikely. 

How did that happen? Was making a reply and it said I was not allowed?

Possibly because I was removing a lot of OT posts.

 

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ECM looks pretty dreadful by day 9 though. 

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Lots of excitement last night I see over a rather warm Sunday as a ridge strikes a glancing blow, but strangely little acknowledgement that the ensembles continue to show what they have done for days on end now - average to rather warm, a sub-10% chance of hot conditions.

I'm still impressed at how well the models handled the end of the heatwave, they picked it up and stuck with it.

(Bear in mind for mid-August, for London and assuming a 23C mean temperature, 22-24 would be average, 25-26 would be rather warm, 27-28 would be warm and 29+ would be hot.)

The EPS are typical:

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature

Note that Sunday's temperatures were in the top 90% of the members and beyond that the mean has fallen by half a degree or so since the morning run.

I would expect this morning's ensembles to continue to show little change.

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Warmer  in S.E. sunday ahead of the rain, but i cant see anything hot.

Rain later for the south?Average temps midweek?And a bit more rain

Looks a bit more mixed than previous weeks

Still looks like 30C is possible.

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A meteorite crashing through my roof is possible too.

GFS has really gone off on one there. UKV has 23s and 24s as highs over East Anglia:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map#?map=ScreenTemperature&zoom=9&lon=1.01&lat=52.74&fcTime=1534046400

and last night's ECM has nothing above 27C there out of its 52 members:

https://weather.us/forecast/2641181-norwich/ensemble/euro

EDIT: Looks like GFS is generating a bit of a foehn effect there. The dewpoints plummet at the same time, only to rise again later:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/point-de-rosee/108h.htm

 

 

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Not saying it will happen but it is the fourth GFS op run on the bounce to show the possibility (if the raw data is undershooting by a couple of C as is often the case) of 30C this Sunday.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/static/20180808070456923_18_120_uk2mtmp.png

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/static/20180808070510818_12_123_uk2mtmp.png

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/static/20180808070523350_06_129_uk2mtmp.png

 

 

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Output all over the show again this morning. ECM is a warm run with some hot air by day 8. 850s of 13c by day 7 then 15c days 8 to 10. 

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I agree it’s unlikely 30c will be reached in the SE, probably 25/26c is more likely. However if certain model runs are showing it then surely it’s  something to keep an eye on? 

As it happens, the ECM looks very warm again later next week, however more unstable than what we’ve been used to so would be quite thundery in places. 

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I'm not normally one to trash the charts but the GFS this  morning from 180 onwards gives dry day, wet day, dry day, wet day continuously.

It may be on to something though so worth watching if you like your late summer wet and windy.

I'm hoping ECM has it right 

Isn't that just typical UK summer weather though? What we've had since April is atypical.

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I'm surprised you made that statement living in Uxbridge?  

Here in the Chilts we get pretty good summers and very wet ones are atypical here.

2018 is notable.

GFS 6z raw data almost goes full fat on Sunday. Five op runs in a row suggesting 30C is possible.

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That is a good seven °C higher than what the ECM shows for the same time. A statistician would suggest the reality will be something in between BUT we all know it doesn’t always work that way in weatherworld.

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This is nearer the mark. ties in with most forecasts.

We may get an answer of sorts this afternoon. GFS has 24C at Norwich at 1 PM and 25C at 4 PM. The noon temperature was 21C.

That said, the wind is SW rather than southerly as modelled on Sunday.

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Problem is GFS is all over the place.

The differences between 0z  (Autumn) and 6z (Summer) output were startling to say the least!

Happy days

This is my 999th post - I might save by 1000th for the first winter snowfall!!

Bam goes the GFS' hot Sunday - more in line with the other models now.

EDIT: Heat-hounds needn't despair, though, it does go off on one on day 8.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

Heating up next week again though, probably not too hot 

 

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GFS 12z drops the sneaky blast of heat this Sunday for something wetter and cooler. Not much in it though and it could easily adjust back.

 

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Bet it doesn't - GFS was always out on its own with the hot conditions on Sunday and it's now in line with the other models. As per the Met Office, Saturday into Sunday is actually quite interesting in that the warmth from ex-Debby gets dragged into the low to our west. I reckon it's this which flummoxed GFS - it dried out that warm, humid air and in doing so turned it into hot, dry air (remember I mentioned the dewpoints dropping markedly with GFS in the earlier run? That'd be why.)

I suspect the GFS modelling of the interaction of that tropical air with the UK was off and now it's creeping closer to T+0 it's getting a better grip on things.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see temperatures in the mid-20s in the east and perhaps SE on Sunday, but I really doubt we'll see 29 or 30.

 

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Not saying it will happen necessarily, but EC 12z op supports high 20s on Sun, Wed, Thu and Fri (it has max raw grid values of 26-27C on these 4 days).

Edit: Sat too, so 5 days in total. 

Just one run of course, but I guess it'd be part II of payback August!

 

Hot outlier on the ensemble though.