Ahem.
Yes it looking very promising. Western Europe High in Week 3- moves eastward to Central Europe then across UK towards the end of week 3.
Cold easterly winds from Sweden and Denmark and Belarus move West SW across to the UK, from about Wednesday 21st to Thursday the 22nd November 2018, cold and frosty weather arrives across North France and the UK.
During week 4, Cold air to the NW of High Pressure in the North Central Atlantic et all, we'll need Low Pressure allow Northerly flow between NE of Iceland to NW UK, with Low Pressure over SW Norwegian Sea that could drag NW to SE cold plunge in the direction over North Atlantic towards the UK by midweek of Week 4.
If blocking over to West of UK and over N. Atlantic link up to Greenland High, with cold pooling over the UK by start of week 4 would be good as well.
It looks interesting to see the pattern evolve. I hope to see more support from the UKMO and wish that the ECMWF 12z also backs up the GFS 12z and UKMO 12z runs which it has done, and it seems the UKMO places the UK High nicely over us at T144 for Friday the 16th November.
Negative North Atlantic Oscillation, 50 percent in charge.
More model runs needed as the forecast will chop and change like a see saw.
While the situation is not yet decided, enjoy the next 144 hours of very mild and possibly foggy weather, and some pleasantly warm sunshine of Mid-November hmm.
Till we get 22nd November, all to play for.
Cold Pooling at the Arctic is showing but there is a lot of Low Pressure going well up north mixing the cold air which will hopefully at some point charge in and flow NW SE or North to South but the current models are not conductive for that fan fare at the moment, we seeing plenty of Northern based West SW to ENE moving Low Pressure and this is part of the problem that the models need to address!!.
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Edited by user
10 November 2018 19:15:29
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Reason: Not Specified
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.