Ya was thinking the same thing - big chunk of the PV about to drop south eastwards T264 onwards I reckon. 

Judging by some of the swings in the ops and the stubborn presence of milder members in the ens I really wouldn't be surprised if we got cold and snow one day, rain and wind the next and then back to snow for some. 

It does look like a particularly entertaining set up with plenty of cold air about but in an unsettled pattern so occasional milder blips being swiftly chased away by the next cold front.

Looking in GFS deep FI and there's a growing cluster of more blocked runs appearing, which is encouraging too. Mostly cold and unsettled once we get past the mid to end of next week, then a possibility of a blocked cold spell dragging some cold air in from the east. Worth mentioning that the ens for Scotland show the colder air hitting there earlier, with decent snow chances as early as the 14th before a milder blip and more cold air setting in from the 17th.

Given the 17th has been the change day for a while in terms of when the colder unsettled pattern really sets in, you have to tip your hat at the GFS ens set for picking that signal out.

47 + 188 guests on the MOD; uncertainty has its advantages.

Lots depending on at least a brief spell of -say- 1050mb over Greenland, to force a low lower.

I'll suggest that the ECM Det.  at day 9/10 will be a big outlier and we will see something different in the morning. Though for whatever reason, the Sunday morning runs are nearly always awful.

Yes if you play through the frames on the northern hemisphere view you can see that deep low is set to drop southeast out of Greenland with hopefully a big pressure build behind.

ECM 240 stars "The leaning power of Pizza"

Dont panic everyone ECM means looks great similar to Para 12 Op.

Ensembles Say Maybe!

(sorry).

It does help to look at the model output. Or read this thread.

..... too much uncertainty to be certain of that (IMHO)

Long way to go of winter yet, Maunder. One week is a long enough time when it comes to weather forecasting in this country, let alone six weeks.

It could well be that at the end of the day, the SSW won't deliver anything by way of notable cold to the UK in the near future, but I would submit that while the ECM 12z op was disappointing at the end, the output in general at the moment is somewhat more interesting than it has been at any other point in time this winter thus far. Keep the faith!

You're either being sarcastic or just misguided as I know you're more knowledgeable/pragmatic than this. Hoping it's the former 

I've been surprised at some of the unbridled optimism on here for the last couple of days. I see GFS is now the model of choice 

There hasn't been any consistently great charts to justify that. However what isn't in doubt (ignore ECM outlier!) is that a colder spell looms but what it will bring is still pure conjecture. Based on the grounds the main thrust was never really due for another 8-10 days it's hardly surprising there is still a lot of uncertainty. If there isn't a tight set of ensembles at -7C or below by next weekend though I might be getting nervous we will be pinning our hopes on a late February extreme on last years scale.

Although the ensemble mean chart at T+240 is of limited value it does suggest that the Op was out on a limb.

I have NO intention to phone Andy Woodcock for at least 7 weeks MM nor should you

Come on mate chin-up or chin down in my case

Just shared two bottles of wine with a friend - waiting for the cold is like Waiting for Godot. 

One of the more eloquent 'Winter is over' posts of the modern era...

We would hardly be looking at late February by next weekend, which will be the 19th of January. Even if the GFS was to show a clear signal at 16 days out - which is unlikely - that would still only just take us into February. And in any case the GFS and ECM ensembles are already showing a pretty clear signal of -5C 850 mb temperatures from about 8 days out, which is not that far from the -7 that you say you want - especially when you bear in mind the point that Retron has made that the low pressure forecast to be over the UK in that timeframe means than that 850 mb level will be substantially closer to the surface than it would usually be. That would pretty much make -5 equivalent to the -7 that you'd like to see.

One encouraging feature of that mean chart is that it shows that pesky High to our SW as being a lot further away than on the operational run as well as being about 10 mb less intense.

Exactly the spread is the witness

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=2&archive=0