For sure Brian, first time over 100! 102 now the new record  I hope Kieran keeps doing the Brighton tracker, interesting to watch. 

I think the Inverness one has reached a high too, at 279 

Seriously though such “snow rows” are a good indication of the ensemble data at a glance and the trends are interesting.

If I had to make a forecast it would be for lots of mood swings, expectations, highs, lows, excitement, disappointment, a bit if reverse psychology and hopefully a bit of fun. As for the weather? Who knows!

Regardless of what if anything materialises it has been an interesting journey, a journey with a few more twists and turns to come no doubt. The trend is still clear in terms of temperature in the midterm and the ensemble data are encouraging if you want cold weather but the details are anyone’s guess as there is no overall consensus. 

It beats (charts showing) endless mild, wet and windy weather any day that’s for sure. 

Liverpool up to 134 on the 6z. Don't remember it being higher. Biggest day total is 18.

Probably  the most accurate forecast of the winter so far. 

GFS 120 

UKMO 120

UKM 144 Looks ok to me 

Developments towards a much colder outcome have gathered pace today. The cold spell starts in just 4 days time thanks to the midweek polar incursion becoming trapped under an area of high pressure.

Nights will become very cold very quickly.

By as early as the latter half of next weekend disrupting troughs will be challenging our increasingly cold block.

Interesting times. 

slightly underwhelming 12z so far ukmo looks decent but its not cold at day 6, GEM probably the best looks good late on but 850s look marginal but GEM 850s always seem to warm. GFS is poor upto 216.

I see the GFS op is still in some form of progressive random scenario generator mode. Yet again, regardless of what it shows down the line I think I will wait for the GFSP and even more so the ensemble data.

Edit: Ally that UKMO 120hr chart is cold enough.

Big changes up north on 12z GFS look how more extensive the black is compared to 06z

Similar to that dodgy ECM 12z we had yesterday . Sadly this outcome can't be ruled out entirely. 

it's amazing how much our expectations have lowered in the era of the "modern winter". After six weeks of mild to very mild dross, even the prospect of a few days of more seasonal temps is enough to get the coldies heartbeats racing. My waters tell me it won't last and winter 2018/9 will go down as yet another mild one- possibly close to record breaking when all is said and done.

Have you actually looked at the charts over the last few days? 

Copious quantities of caution required.  FI is going to shrink down to 120hrs, and, personally, as I have no expectations, nothing can disappoint me. 

Fascinating model watching, but much patience required methinks. For example, the pizza slice attack shown below will probably be gone come the 18z:

Up to +264

No sign of a Greenland Block or any HP over the Pole: - I do wonder if I should give the GFS OP run a break from looking at it because it never seems to be showing anything blocked or wintry in FI..!? To me this looks like it will end anything but blocked & cold. 

Then you have this:

AO goes negative but GFS charts show a really positive AO !?

Interesting and somewhat brave post considering the model output at the min.

So yes it has been mild to date but why that means there can’t be a pattern change doesn’t make any sense.

This is one for saving and reposting in a few weeks time, whatever happens!

.

Here I go!.

Weather is looking fine and less cold on Monday and Tuesday, and Tuesday rain with Low Pressure affects NW and North UK away from South and Central UK hmm.

On Wednesday 16th, a Triple Front Low Pressure pushes band of heavy rain and mild sector SE, and cold air moves Southwards in the Afternoon and during Wednesday night and Thursday to Midday, cold with frosty evening night and morning.

Some wintry snow showers are possible the more North you are, the better. Cold air with a few wintry showers around on Thursday.

On Friday 18th January, it looks like being dry but will be cold I think, but what time Friday less cold air comes from West moving SE with North and NE staying cold Friday night and Saturday- some rain then sleet and snow on the back end in West Central and NE UK, band of sleet and snow follows the rain.

Saturday the 19th should see High Pressure and staying cold with frost early and late... NE winds in SE England on Saturday morning to evening.

There is indication that High Pressure in the Central North Atlantic, GFS, ICON shows - in following week after that, Low Pressure GFS plunges SE on the Sunday PM and to Tuesday, with cold weather and chance of wintry sleet and snow showers possible.

But looking at the UKMO and ICON versus the GFS, from Friday 18th to Saturday 19th, the NW SE then East moving Low Pressure and then High Pressure for Saturday and Sunday differs for the said time versus the GFS showing Cold NW winds on the Sunday 20th January..  Possible that Thunder snow might be possible this Wednesday 16th in afternoon and through evening.