12z GFS Para already significantly different than the old Gfs at 120h much more like the ukmo and GEM.  Hopefully a good run coming. 

Yes the “short term” section of the GEFS data are steady.

I‘m not sure how good the GFSP whole run will be but in isolation it’s not massively important, remembering it is a version of the GFS. The ECM will add to the picture later.

GFSP 12z looking more progressive by 192.

It's a vortex-sinker, like the GEFS control. All good!

Talking of the GEFS, number 5 has us under the Black Hole of Doom! (And yes, with 945hPa SLP, the 850 line is much lower than usual. It's no surprise that the accompanying chart shows widespread snowfall from it.)

EDIT: Every single one of the members of the 12z GEFS shows widespread snow at some stage post-192. Marginal stuff on some of them, but that's where the UK's biggest snowfalls tend to come from...

On the subject of post 192hr, unsurprisingly the GFS op run was an mild outlier up here for some of that time period http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0

Surprised the Met hasn't issued a weather warning this evening for Shetland.

Possibly an inch or two of snow by Tuesday.

Another crazy snowy bonkers Para!

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Surprised the Met hasn't issued a weather warning this evening for Shetland.

Possibly an inch or two of snow by Tuesday.

I think for the northern isles.....it would take more than a Max of 2c (tom and Tues)....and fairly light snow to encourage a met warning......but who am I to say....

I’m not sure if it will be as snow much as that and they are probably used to the Met Office ignoring them  We may actually see a few flakes here overnight, but it’s hard to tell.

All sorts of weird and wonderful on the GFSP run so far. 

I'd imagine 2 inches of snow won't create that much disruption as it would in say, Surrey. 

Yet again it's the Para that keeps our hopes alive:

Compared to the GFS:

It's astonishing just how steady the ensemble mean 850 mb temperature is for the last 9 or so days of the run, given the wide variety among the individual ensemble members.

It's no ECM, but it outperforms current GFS Op consistently.

Presumably if NOAA are intending for it to take aver from the current operational model in just a couple of weeks time, they must be fairly satisfied that - if not perfect - it's at least an improvement.

The latest Snow Row Analysis for Brighton shows that the 6Z run was 'peak snow' and we've dropped back a bit.   The 12Z run may show a lot of green, but we lost some large spikes from the 6Z for the 22nd, 23rd and 25th Jan.   

Not sure why the chart image comes out so 'squashed' 

Only my opinion, but methinks the GFS 12z op is out on a limb.

The 12z ECM was never ever going to mirror this mornings effort , its no surprise 

So let's hope this takes a southerly track and allow heights to build to our north?

Chart @ 216 hrs

ECM is still very good similar to the Para .

O/T Mr Fawkes " The week after next could be rather more interesting "