Model Output Discussion 11/01/19 17:00 >>>>· Page 16

jhall
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 21:36:16

The other answers to your question are all wrong...

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Not all of them. Mine was essentially correct, even though of course I couldn't identify the precise reason for the discrepancy.

Cranleigh, Surrey

Gavin D
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 21:41:12

#377

No doubt some newspapers will be excreting scaremongering and nonsensical weather stories this week, so some context;

Left pic: cold air when we had beast from the east
Right pic: cold air end of this week

Cold air at end of this week isn't exceptional - at all. Just colder. pic.twitter.com/kxJK4j0hwA

— Liam Dutton - Weatherman (@liamdutton) January 13, 2019

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 21:51:59

#378

The positive anomalies for Iceland, Greenland and Spitzbergen suggests that February is expected to be dominated by easterlies rather than northerlies.

Originally Posted by: jhall

Yes or else Iceland would be below average in terms of temperatures too. But above for them would suggest easterly..! You're right!

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 21:53:46

#379

The other answers to your question are all wrong. The reason is simply that the wrong variable was plotted on that chart, the correct values are below. The problem should not occur on the GFS18z which starts in a few minutes.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

So for that time period (which of course will change) but as show the precipitation type was correct but the temps were wrong i take it!?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

Brian Gaze
Administration Topic Starter

13 January 2019 21:55:37

#380

So for that time period (which of course will change) but as show the precipitation type was correct but the temps were wrong i take it!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83

Basically yes. GFS provides tmax2m and tmin2m variables. Both the max and min UK charts on that run were using the tmax2m.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

White Meadows
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 22:19:50

#381

No doubt some newspapers will be excreting scaremongering and nonsensical weather stories this week, so some context;

Left pic: cold air when we had beast from the east
Right pic: cold air end of this week

Cold air at end of this week isn't exceptional - at all. Just colder. pic.twitter.com/kxJK4j0hwA

— Liam Dutton - Weatherman (@liamdutton) January 13, 2019

Originally Posted by: Gavin D

Nice comparison Dutton but give it another 5 or 6 more days and the picture could look pretty different.

White Meadows
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 22:23:35

#382

18z doing something horrid with the Azores HP again

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=180&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

doctormog
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 22:31:06

#383

18z doing something horrid with the Azores HP again

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=180&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

It is also (yet again) inconsistent with its previous run.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Heavy Weather 2013
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 22:40:32

#384

GFS is massively different at around 200-222.

GFS has been chopping and changing ferociously

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 22:43:27

#385

It is also (yet again) inconsistent with its previous run.

Originally Posted by: doctormog

The 18z seems to be reverting to the previous pattern of drawing a chunk of the polar vortex down toward the British Isles

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

doctormog
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 22:54:14

#386

Again by day 4 the GFS 18z is out of line with all the other main models, including the GFSP (which is much more like the UKMO and ECM 12z output).

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

idj20
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 22:56:57

#387

Again by day 4 the GFS 18z is out of line with all the other main models, including the GFSP (which is much more like the UKMO and ECM 12z output).

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Those living on the east coast better hope and pray that the 250 hrs part of the 18z GFS doesn't end up as being the verified scenario.

Folkestone Harbour.

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 23:07:51

#388

Again by day 4 the GFS 18z is out of line with all the other main models, including the GFSP (which is much more like the UKMO and ECM 12z output).

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Yes, the new (Parallel) model looks better in terms of consistency.

At T+96 the 12z and 18z are almost identical.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 23:13:06

#389

The 18z seems to be reverting to the previous pattern of drawing a chunk of the polar vortex down toward the British Isles

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

That is a beautiful chart.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

Phil G
Guest

13 January 2019 23:17:32

#390

Those living on the east coast better hope and pray that the 250 hrs part of the 18z GFS doesn't end up as being the verified scenario.

Originally Posted by: idj20

Exactly Ian. Shades of '53 there with a deep area of low pressure moving west to east just to the north of Scotland, then SE wards into the North Sea with a considerable storm surge.

This does also happen to co-incide with very high tides on the 23rd/24th, which are bigger than those last week which caused some coastal flooding.

doctormog
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 23:20:59

#391

Based on the last few runs I wouldn’t place much faith in the GFS op run in isolation at 50 never mind 250hrs!

For what it’s worth at day 6 the 18z GFSP is quite consistent with its previous run and the ECM.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 23:24:49

#392

Based on the last few runs I wouldn’t place much faith in the GFS op run in isolation at 50 never mind 250hrs!

For what it’s worth at day 6 the 18z GFSP is quite consistent with its previous run and the ECM.

Originally Posted by: doctormog

I heard someone say the operational will eventually become the parallel run anyway?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

Rob K
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 23:26:36

#393

I think it’s fair to say the models are utterly clueless at the moment. Maybe in a week’s time we might have some clue as to how the cold spell, if any, will shape up. Until then I think it’s pointless looking.

(Of course, the Scottish members should see some cold weather before then)

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

doctormog
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 23:27:05

#394

I heard someone say the operational will eventually become the parallel run anyway?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83

No the parallel (FV3) is due to replace the current GFS in the next few weeks.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 23:41:44

#395

You know what I am going to say? But I won't say it!

Edited by user 13 January 2019 23:44:35 | Reason: Not specified

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

13 January 2019 23:47:55

#396

I think it’s fair to say the models are utterly clueless at the moment. Maybe in a week’s time we might have some clue as to how the cold spell, if any, will shape up. Until then I think it’s pointless looking.

(Of course, the Scottish members should see some cold weather before then)

Originally Posted by: Rob K

I think 'clueless' is harsh: there's decent agreement now on the pattern for the coming week.

The main issue remains the lack of high latitude blocking on the output. Being reliant on cold zonality and getting the jetstream far enough south without blocking looks precarious. It may well be that the models are still deciphering the signals from the SSW.

At the moment I am still cautious bordering on underwhelmed in terms of this being anything exceptional.

Edited by user 13 January 2019 23:54:45 | Reason: Not specified

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

14 January 2019 00:00:51

#397

Disappointing Para tonight - before the 12z showed LP sinking southwards pulling in bitter easterly winds from 23rd, allowing HP to build north esp toward Iceland:

18z run brings in SW OR WESTERLY Winds and temps of +9 to 12c with low pressure strengthening to our north esp over Iceland and south of Greenland: - Couldn't be more different even if it tried to!?