and as if by magic The daily star leads with this mornings headlines 

“Killer snowstorms to hit UK”

i honestly don’t know what model output they have been looking at. 

The colder spell looks to still be on by the end of the week but where we go from next week is anyone’s guess.

The T2Ms are much the same as the 18z suite.

If you mean the 850s, the mean overall is much the same (slightly higher in the shorter term, slightly lower in the longer term).

One word this morning - Azores.

It does look like the models have generally shifted things further east this morning, at least in the mid term. Overall it doesn't make much difference in the T2Ms etc, but it's not a trend I'd want to see continue!

ECM the best of a mediocre bunch this morning. Need some upgrades this afternoon . As for slidergate at 96/120 pretty much zero chance the old GFS will have it right.  

Hints of high level blocking emerging at the end of FI (for what it's worth) at end of both the GFS Op & Controle runs from the 0z, (known for their inconsistency of course) LOL  Indicating a memorable Feb possible! ... Can but hope...

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=144&run=0&lid=C00&h=0&tr=12&mv=0

While the second half of the month is very likely to be colder than the first, how much colder is very much open to debate.  The trend over the past 24 hours has been to shift things east - including the colder air, so as things stand whilst I expect it to be colder and far more winter-like than it has been (up to Weds), I think there is a chance we will wait til the very tail end of the month before the southerners get a sniff of the white stuff.  Our old friend The Azores High is reminding us who is boss around here.

Indeed. As I recently mentioned I can remember Paul Bartlett talking about it many years ago. A real basic staple of the British winter and one which people overlook at their peril. 

GFS FWIW post T300 has a fair bit of blocking, circa 50% of the members show decent blocking at T330 for example, which has been a growing trend for the past few days.

Before then and as far as I can see we're looking at usual fluctuations in the models as to where things end up in an unsettled flow. GFS is at odds with the Euros from T72 onwards (bit closer on the GFSP) so take any nearer term solutions with a pinch O salt until that's sorted imo, although I'm going with the Euros to have got the slider right just on past performance

The problem  lies with the remnants of the PV lobe over towards Canada/Greenland, until they’ve drained away then getting any HLB in that vicinity is going to be a challenge. I’ve no doubt we'll see this happen but it may well be at the start of next month.

The general pattern remains the same. A NW/SE jet access pulling in cold zonality initially. Its backed further east across some output allowing for a stronger Azores High.

After that we are still looking for the troposheric response from the SSW - 23-26th January should be the period we see these heights rise across Greenland and Iceland if the long term EC/ CFS/ JMA have the 500 hpa height anomolies correct.

The ECM means follow the Op very well you can see the Azores high showing its hand day 6/7 but then trough comes down day 8 to 10 will it be cold enough its borderline especially for the southern third of the UK .

As you can imagine, the Brighton Snow Row values have dropped dramatically since yesterday with the only gains deep into FI. 

Worrying.

Still a decent set of GEFS for London snow rows at 90. The mean is slightly higher especially around the 22nd and 25th.