Ditto here, but 1947, that was a different story. Snow drifts so high that only chimneys were visible. 1917 was another biggie. Over a metre of snow fell over much of the west of Ireland.. in April!

Different times. Events on this scale are difficult comprehended in our softer times. 

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Yeah, we had a pretty big snowfall here just before mid-March 2006 which came towards the end of a month-long cold spell at the back end of the 05/06 winter. In fact, that was the biggest amount of snow I had seen here in any March prior to the events of the end of February last year. In places, there were still fairly large piles of snow lying around a week or so later even after the rest of it had largely melted.

March 1995 is another March which I remember as having quite a lot of snow here at times, although it was mostly from cold NW zonality rather than from the east IIRC. My abiding memory of that March was being sent home from school late in the morning of 1st March after quite a heavy overnight fall of snow here. Happy days!

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Latest GFS shows a period of snow here Friday before temps rise.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_96_53.png

I think it is being far two progressive given the  other models. MOGREPS via Met office automated shows frosty and cold here from Friday to Sunday.

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The 6z GEFS have another slight fall in the Liverpool Snow Row totals, down from 116 to 114 (the high point over the weekend was [I think] 136)

In fact, JFF, here's the British Isles league table. Inverness once again, and as expected, absolutely smashes it:

 

278 - Inveness

167 - Newcastle

160 - Edinburgh

149 - Glasgow

137 - Aberdeen 

128 - Belfast

114 - Liverpool

107 - Norwich

103 - Sheffield

94 - Dublin

92 - Birmingham

82 - London

63 - Cardiff

58 - Brighton

36 - Plymouth

 

 

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It's starting to look like game over for any prolonged cold spell coming up. Next stop February.

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well if that’s the case Moomin then the inability for the British climate to deliver a true mid winter cold spell is completely staggering. 

 

Does no-one remember March 2013 - was going to the lake district for our 'easter' holiday. Drifts on the A66, powdered snow blowing across the road, 15 miles away cars were submerged in it...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-21910079

Based upon? 

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The GFS seems to keep coming back to a Jan 1953-type set up for around the 23rd/24th. While it is still a long way off in forecasting terms and thus subject to change, those living along the East Coast has every right to be concerned.

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Moomin's genetic make-up; he's been spliced with Chicken Licken

 

 

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NIce to see a bit of melodrama, I’ve missed it. 

Meanwhile the trend is fine on the 12z output so far. Thursday looks fun with a high chance of snow showers up here http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU12_63_1.png 

As the next system moves in in Friday or Saturday I would nit be surprised to see some snow in other locations further south (not here).

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Hopefully that's a signal that by then that persistent Azores High will at last have gone or at least have substantially weakened..

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Has anyone else noticed that there always seems to be a hiatus in the GFSP charts coming out - at least on Wetterzentrale - after T+81? It's very odd that it should always occur at the same point.

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Let me rephrase. It's starting to look like February will be the month that brings a real prolonged cold spell. Until then, diving lows and cold zonality appears to be on the cards. That will bring plenty of snow to the usual spots, but those further south may have to continue to be patient before the real cold arrives.

I honestly thought January would lock into the freezer nationwide, but this is clearly being pushed back.

I still think we will get something very memorable, but as ever, patience is key.

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Deep FI I know, but this GFS 12Z chart for 28th January might lift your spirits a wee bit, Kieren.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=336&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

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Well it looks like strat downwelling back on the menue according to the gfs 12z op. This does tie in with time line of downwelling to trop 22nd onwards. Of course synoptics will change but after so many false dawns maybe the mist is clearing and we will see a consistency in the runs towards SSW high latitude blocking and much colder solutions.
My money's still on for east/ north easterly 25th onwards.

Yes, I have noticed that. I think there is one at around 210hr as well, although I’m not sure why in either case.

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I thought you were telling us all that you were very confident of a cold spell in January? I wouldn't let notoriously inaccurate long range models dent my optimism.

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It also has the rather unnerving trait of slipping in a frame from a run 24 hours ago as well (at least on WZ).

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Given that the most notable cold spell of last winter came right at the end of the meteorogical winter season and the start of spring, even if any notable & sustained cold spell doesn't come until say the first or second week of February, it would still be 3-4 weeks earlier than was the case last year.

As for what is being suggested for later in January, it is IMO pretty similar to the NW-SE pattern that we had for much of last winter until the latter part of February. That pattern did give my area a good  five or six consecutive days of heavy snow showers just after mid-January last year, thererby giving us our greatest amount of snow of the winter prior to the arrival of the Beast at the end of last Feb. Next week is starting to look potentially very interesting, at least for northern areas.

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Maybe it is just my imagination, but deep frozen spells seem to be curiously lacking in January over the last decade or so. Nearly all of the deep cold events I can recall at least seem to have occurred in either December, February or as in the case in 2013 and 2018, March. I can't remember a similar event in January though, at least in recent times.

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As the upper atmospheric winds gradually turn from west to east lows on a more nw/se track would be par for the course.

Big differences between the Op  06z run and 12z run at the end of the run of course).

 

 

 

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Very cold Para from GFS. Uncertainty, as ever, rules.

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Wow it really does go for it early massive upgrade. 

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