oh babe#

Not too bothered by that, the easterly is just a symptom of the GH moving into place which hopefully would lead to bigger and better things down the line.

We in the SE would be favoured: pressure below 1010 and catching the edge of that upper cold pool that's very evident on the 500 mb chart. Nowhere near so good in your neck of the woods, I grant you. But of course looking for this degree of detail at that range is pretty futile. Fun, though.

i get the feeling it will fit in with a growing cluster showing this outcome

Same here, it'll likely be at the top end but not a massive outlier.

Importantly, for the first time in a while the op ECM and the op GFS seem to be singing from the same hymn book at T+240, even if it's not yet quite the same hymn. (Admittedly the GFSP isn't quite so good.)

Thanks Rob and White Meadows.

ECM Means remarkably similar to tonight's Op.

ECM mean @192 is a carbon copy of operational which is perfect-

Operational would bring around 20-30cm of snow to Kent..

Shame it’ll be gone in the morning. 

As it's the ensemble mean chart and there are growing signals for that evolution I'd be quite surprised if it changed radically.

As has been the case for days, the issue is how the jetstream is being modelled.  The amount of energy in the northern arm has been steadily reduced. IMO it's only a sharp reversal of that trend that would break the build of upper heights behind the surge of energy south on Tuesday.

We need to see these charts at t96 or less. Worthless other than for academic discussion in the chaos zone of 144+.

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The Teasers GFS and ECMWF, but the reality bringers GEM, ICON and the UKMO!!!.

This looks like going uphill and not dowhill, thanks to Newfoundland and SW Greenland.

All the potential shown, shall be reduced to just ordinary weakend SE Tracking Low- following by High pressure returning from the West.

East and North and NE Canada plus Newfoundland shall continue to be locked in the Winter Snowstorms.

So much for Maunder Minimum and Stratospheric Warming, we seem to get the influence from the Azores and Bermuda high and the Gulfstream instead.

I am looking forward to dry and benign cloudy winter days with little if any rain.

.

This mornings Easterly from ECM was expected to have disappeared by this evening yet here we are looking at a cracking run...……….again 

Only anecdotal from my dodgy memory but whilst the ECM/UKMO combo usually handle disrupting LPs much better than the GFS, GFS does sometimes get it's own back with the modelling of energy from the states.

GFS I would assume is still firing a stronger and flatter jet than the ECM Op in the nearer term, leading to a less cool outcome with HP noticeably further south. Deep FI it still has a decent blocking signal suggesting it's reducing the jet and HP establishes somewhere more interesting. I've not checked in that much detail but I imagine the warmer ens members are those where the block establishes but at least initially pulls in air from a mild source. 

The general differences could also be a result of how each model is handling the strat warming I guess?

Some fun model watching over the next few days I reckon - be interesting to see where this goes

Pete Tong I suspect.

The long-expected landing time of the stratospheric downwell has been Jan 22nd give or take a few days, with an initial focus just N and NE of the UK, and just look at ECM & EPS respond! GFS & GEFS also starting to notice big-time but still being more sluggish.

There's also some tropically-induced amplification of the N. America - N. Atlantic pattern coming into play, which GFS also looks to have underestimated. GEFS less so, but they had a fair old wobble this morning.

The timing of the former is highly dependable but the degree of impact less so, while for the tropical forcing it's the other way around. The weather sure likes to challenge us! 

One thing's for sure though - it'd be extraordinary if we didn't see a lengthy spell of very blocked weather patterns take place sometime between 22nd Jan and mid-Feb, and there are good odds on at least one period of snow-friendly conditions associated with that. Of course, it's not yet possible to know or even have a good guess which areas will be hit hardest - or how much snow that'll actually amount to!

Brighton Snow Row Analysis - the 12Z saw a drop from today's 'high' of 78 at 6Z.