Forgetting any wintriness (or lack thereof) I suspect the above scenarios would be very welcome for many people. Bright, dry and fresh.

With ref to the post I made a couple of days back at least the models have been consistent with them showing a less amplified pattern once we get into the semi reliable. A pattern that has been evident all Autumn. Rather cold it is then and always was. 

A warming forecast in the strat at 30mb over the next several days could be much more productive in bringing a colder synoptic pattern in about 10 to 15 days time than the rather cold one we are looking at this coming weekend.

Has the Met completely changed its tune then? Last time I was on here only a few days ago the models were showing colder conditions but everyone was saying the Met were having none of it and going mild all the way!

Good to know things still chop and change as much as they ever did.

ECM 12z ensemble for London suggests a 5-day coldish spell followed by a brief recovery to average or rather mild and then the usual uncertainty.



http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Jetstream running south of the UK this week though with a weaker northern branch promoting some additional cold weather.then early next week (around the 2nd) some big loops taking it north and  encasing HP for the UK and LP for the Med. By the 8th it's back running strongly across the UK and deep into Europe.

GFS copies this with a brief northerly this week and then the HP settling in for a few days around the 2nd before zonal comes back for the rest of that week. Then rinse and repeat: northerly on the 8th/9th brief HP on the 11th which looks as if it will be back to zonal a few days later. All looks like traditional Decemeber weather to me. ECM similar at first but keeps the HP going from the 2nd to the end of the run on Fri 6th.

GEFS temps 4-5 C below average 29th - 3rd, then 2-3 C above until about the 7th when (with some variations) it drops back to just below normal.Dry for 29th - 3rd (yesterday's suggestion of rain on the 1st now SW only) then a bit of rain anywhere and everywhere.

Whilst its not spectacular the GFS for the SE now has Easterly winds all the way out to the 4th as the models continue to amplify the jet especially over Southern Europe.

What it means is we can still see the -8c line push in but will eventually get mixed out- Still its an amazing change from the +8c line depicted by the GFS at the weekend..

All a bit of a yawn but we've had worse prospects in December than this regarding cold opportunities. The good thing with this brief cold snap at the start of December is that it heralds the start of believing that future cold spells could bring snow.

only when one of those is shown in the operational will it get the excitement levels up - there could be a big change coming in the mood levels soon

Some misdirection here? Follow the isobars back and it's not a Beast from the East but a sunbed from the Med?

Well, maybe not that warm, but I couldn't think of a better rhyme

No misdirection - I think you are mislead ?

Have a look at the 3/4 runs that get below -9c in the 170-190 area & all the isolines track into Scandi....

And all the other runs? Shall we have a democratic decision?

Big shift from the UK Met today. TBH I didn't establish what data they based their expectation of a lengthy cold spell on. ECM30 had a mild signal as did GEFS. MOGREPS only goes out to 8 days I think.

I watched the weather studio from the met office today and it showed the polar vortex is on the move and being squashed towards eurasia. Think that was what it said. It said there was least likely a chance of a sudden stratospheric warming and the polar vortex should recover

ECM30 doesn't look all that mild to me?