I’m happy. Yes we unlikely to see snow. But it’s always great to get to have some seasonal in December.

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Forgetting any wintriness (or lack thereof) I suspect the above scenarios would be very welcome for many people. Bright, dry and fresh.

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yes Brian- Hugely contradicting with the output available to us. Perhaps they ‘can see something’ upstream we cannot. Or perhaps they’ve just called it too early, as we’ve seen numerous times before (in both cold & mild situations).

 

With ref to the post I made a couple of days back at least the models have been consistent with them showing a less amplified pattern once we get into the semi reliable. A pattern that has been evident all Autumn. Rather cold it is then and always was. 

A warming forecast in the strat at 30mb over the next several days could be much more productive in bringing a colder synoptic pattern in about 10 to 15 days time than the rather cold one we are looking at this coming weekend.

Has the Met completely changed its tune then? Last time I was on here only a few days ago the models were showing colder conditions but everyone was saying the Met were having none of it and going mild all the way!

 

Good to know things still chop and change as much as they ever did.

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ECM 12z ensemble for London suggests a 5-day coldish spell followed by a brief recovery to average or rather mild and then the usual uncertainty.



http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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Just noting the developments of the day we 'could' squeeze another 24/36 hours out the cold spell as the models are developing a trough swinging round SW from the main parent low at 162 over Norway which could slide down into the SE as the high elongates...

It would introduce that element of -7/-8c air for another day on top of the original cold plunge probably making it 5 maybe 6 days....

Hum Worth noting the 00z ICON
Bigger wedge of cold .... ❄️

I can see overnight fog becoming an issue if winds fall light at the end of the week. Hopefully a drier spell to come, next week is anyone’s guess

Jetstream running south of the UK this week though with a weaker northern branch promoting some additional cold weather.then early next week (around the 2nd) some big loops taking it north and  encasing HP for the UK and LP for the Med. By the 8th it's back running strongly across the UK and deep into Europe.

GFS copies this with a brief northerly this week and then the HP settling in for a few days around the 2nd before zonal comes back for the rest of that week. Then rinse and repeat: northerly on the 8th/9th brief HP on the 11th which looks as if it will be back to zonal a few days later. All looks like traditional Decemeber weather to me. ECM similar at first but keeps the HP going from the 2nd to the end of the run on Fri 6th.

GEFS temps 4-5 C below average 29th - 3rd, then 2-3 C above until about the 7th when (with some variations) it drops back to just below normal.Dry for 29th - 3rd (yesterday's suggestion of rain on the 1st now SW only) then a bit of rain anywhere and everywhere.

 

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ECM looks very interesting from an overall view
www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPNH00_240_1.png
Could be good if the warming becomes more of a trend

Whilst its not spectacular the GFS for the SE now has Easterly winds all the way out to the 4th as the models continue to amplify the jet especially over Southern Europe.

What it means is we can still see the -8c line push in but will eventually get mixed out- Still its an amazing change from the +8c line depicted by the GFS at the weekend..

Looking at the ensembles GFS seems to be firming up on a four-day chilly spell from the 29th, then a milder interlude before a likely return to cooler conditions around the following weekend as the high pressure ridges again.

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All a bit of a yawn but we've had worse prospects in December than this regarding cold opportunities. The good thing with this brief cold snap at the start of December is that it heralds the start of believing that future cold spells could bring snow.

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After this cool spell later this week the east coast could see temperatures of 15 or 16c next Wednesday with a very mild gusty westerly wind.
Probably not ideal for high sided vehicles on the A1.

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Significant swing to the 00z ICON in the 06z GFS mean-
00z 850 Mean for london @192 was 0c

Now its down to -6c at 180....

Watch the ENS graph elongate the cold spell...

WOW
X4 -10 runs for london & 1 -11c !!!

 

only when one of those is shown in the operational will it get the excitement levels up - there could be a big change coming in the mood levels soon

Some misdirection here? Follow the isobars back and it's not a Beast from the East but a sunbed from the Med?

Well, maybe not that warm, but I couldn't think of a better rhyme

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No misdirection - I think you are mislead ?

Have a look at the 3/4 runs that get below -9c in the 170-190 area & all the isolines track into Scandi....

And all the other runs? Shall we have a democratic decision?

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Big shift from the UK Met today. TBH I didn't establish what data they based their expectation of a lengthy cold spell on. ECM30 had a mild signal as did GEFS. MOGREPS only goes out to 8 days I think.

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I watched the weather studio from the met office today and it showed the polar vortex is on the move and being squashed towards eurasia. Think that was what it said. It said there was least likely a chance of a sudden stratospheric warming and the polar vortex should recover

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ECM30 doesn't look all that mild to me? 

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Looks like going Zonal early next week,not surprising.December has never been a very wintry month in the U.K.

In my lifetime only two Decembers stand out 81 and 2010, can not recall much snow away from those years.