Cannot wait to enjoy this 20 degree surface temps shorts and T-shirt weather surely 

850s are deceptive. A quick scan of the ensembles shows just three runs touch 14c once - on 7th/8th. Otherwise it’s mostly 11-12c on those days and otherwise just slightly mild.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

Look how positive the zonal winds go at start of winter just after a colder snap end of November as soon as winter start the zonal winds get stronger the same time as the AO goes exceptionally positive - and we get milder.

Same goes for the NAO as well. - again like the zonal winds - it's interesting how the on the turn of the month/season i.e 1st December the Zonal winds strengthen.

1st December the NAO goes really positive like the AO and hence the continued mild weather ever since as it's stayed positive so I do wonder when we will next see any negativity in the AO or NAO or a weakened Zonal winds? Perhaps 1st day of spring? 1st March?

Also Met Office have mentioned for a month now about colder spells or cold at times with frost - well? - we have seen little of this so far haven't we?

There’ll probably be a frost tonight - does that not count?

Also note most of the long range forecasts have quite rightly started ‘with low confidence’. It’s a little premature to criticise the UKM long range when it’s been consistently one of the most level-headed and sensible outputs, and dues but react to every whim of the model ensembles.

Again, right at the end, hints of heights pushing North and another little nod to EC clusters. Baby steps maybe.

Maybe, but the jet stream isn't lining up to favour a block and that high pressure belt to the south has to ease away south/south-west, otherwise we're dependent on the jet stream just running out of oomph, which is a touch optimistic.  The very end of the 06z op shows the nascent block collapsing under a lot of pressure.

We've had 8 air frosts here since the start of December (based on stats from Farnborough), so not great but not totally absent. We also had 8 in November, FWIW...

The charts have been amazingly consistent and just goes to prove in setups like this that are very stable with an omnipresent Euro High, the models don't struggle with the pattern at all.

This is why I think that we can write off most of the winter, but am always hopeful that there will be an improvement.

P4...from little acorns.

Really write off winter?? Silly comment.

eyes down for the ENS see if there is any support for the blocking to move North or if it is unsupported 

Would be lovely if we can get a bit of sun with it.

Fingers crossed. The press are starting to get interested so something could be in the offing. 

im going to keep watching Arperge for this one, I tend to find you have to add a degree or two onto GFS. Personally, with some limited solar input, I don’t think 18c is out of the question 

Another Föhn effect setup looks probable on Tuesday, so I would expect temperatures into the mid teens in parts of the north of Scotland and possibly parts of Wales on Tuesday. Wednesday will be a different matter though with much cooler and more unsettled conditions in the north but still very mild further south. This is based on current output and the details could of course change in the next few days even if the overall pattern does not.

Some very windy weather is also being shown on current output for many northern parts.

Latest GFS 2m max temps for Tuesday.

P16 - again it's an outlier and in FI but just trying to find some hope for cold and snow here:

On the positive side at least we are seeing a few ensemble members showing an easterly compared to past week when there were no easterlies at all!? - maybe a sign of things to come? let's hop so?