Re both the 00 and 06z GFS

That glimmer of hope for a colder spell around 16th has now been dashed!

Instead of the HP building further north it appears that the HP will build up from the south and we could end up really mild towards end of the run especially as southerly winds take a hold - this is a perfect summer chart.

The Place to be for cold Doc with Yellowknife and much of northern Canada some 10c or so below average at 850hpa and on surface? - flying back there anytime soon?

If you're looking for cold then probably come back and review in a weeks time in the hope of changes.

The 0z ensembles are almost without interest in that regard.

For the life of me can not see why some posters here and on other forums were or are feeling optimistic at charts post t240. There is talk of the next MJO wave moving through phases 7,8 and 1 and helping to induce a bottom up (troposphere led) warming and possible splitting of the upper trop vortex but at the range being shown it just looks like noise to me. It appears on one run and then dropped on the next. 

A lot of this positivity being placed on the relaxation of the strong positive IOD phase that we have seen since early Autumn. Myself I think it will be the turn of the month at the earliest before we may possibly see anything wintry of note in the UK.

The lack of eye candy cold charts this winter is extraordinary.  Literally nothing for the Coldies to get excited about never seen anything like it in my 10 or so years looking at charts. Looks like next week will smash some more warm records so as others have said might aswell embrace the mildness.

It's best always to try and turn a negative into a positive. Therefore be happy you won't have to risk slipping on sheet ice or having to sweep your front drive. Also saves on heating bills.

People say this about heating bills, which I don’t understand.

It would have to get pretty warm in winter, say 15C plus, for us not to have the heating on. Maybe it’s just me in this old terraced house! 

Presumably you have a thermostat. So the amount of energy required will be much less to heat rooms from 15C to 21C than from 5C outside so you should save a fair bit. 

There is no end in sight, and I really do think that we are running out of time. At the very least we have at least 10-14 more days of this pattern, that takes us close to February.

And I just can't see a way out of this pattern and winter is just not coming this year, until northern blocking no doubt returns in time for spring.

We have a thermostat in the dining room set to 23C , but I don’t think I’ve ever known it to reach that temperature and knock the heating off. :O

Like I said, old terraced house. Don’t get me wrong, we can physically turn the heating off when it’s very mild but we probably wouldn’t do so unless the outside temp reached 15C. Probably for another thread. :D 

In the Met Office article Retron linked recently it says, "[December] was 1.3 °C warmer than average with a mean temperature for the UK of 5.1 °C." I realise that isn't record breaking but it is a substantial anomaly. The medium range models are continuing to suggest milder than average conditions for much of the next 2 or 3 weeks and at times it could be very mild. Therefore, I stand by my suggestion that we could be living through a winter that will go on to be remembered as an all time classic. It could even snuggle up alongside those mild late 80s efforts. 

Well your forecast looks right then and others wrong. However your December forecast of close to average was incorrect. So Brian? What would you think is the cause of such mild weather and continuous mild? Do you think it's purely down to the SST's in Atlantic and Pacific or down to the extreme cold temps in the STRATOSPHERE which has really strengthened the polar Vortex?

I'm already starting to think about the possibility of the 114 year old January 1916 CET record going out the window this month! 

You have to say that record has done well to survive so long but can it hold on for January 2020?

I could Google a few big words and write a flowery response but I won't. It would imply that I know the real reason. If I or anyone else did they would be producing consistently accurate seasonal forecasts. All that can be said with any validity is:

1) Cold winters tend to come in clusters. This and basic probability suggest that those people who think a "cold winter is overdue because the last couple were mild" are talking nonsense.

2) Background warming (regardless of cause it is farcical to deny it has taken place) means the likelihood is the bullseye for the UK has smallened in recent decades

Yes clusters like early 90's 1990/91 being a memorable one and early 2000's like 2002/03 and 03/04 and then 04/05 esp in Feb 05, and 08/09, 09/10 and first part of winter 10/11, however past several winters the PV has been so strong along with really cold temps in stratosphere so I wonder - regardless of us being in solar minimum to increase blocking chances - the PV and it's strength is the main factor really!?

So the point I am making here is that we could be in a weak La Nina or easterly QBO and despite this if the Polar Vortex is strong and zonal winds are exceptionally positive then this is really curtains for a colder winter despite solar minimum and whatever the SST's are in the Pacific/Atlantic and whatever the QBO is? As in the Polar Votex and it's strength over rules it all regardless!?

The only way out of this is a SSW but this looks highly unlikely and as we know from last years experience it failed to deliver proper HLB.

For anyone looking for some cold weather during this winter, these charts for the AO and NAO are probably not what you want to be seeing as together, they appear to point towards a continued mild outlook with little or no prospect of any cold weather here.

As you can see above, the AO looks set to remain positive and if anything, become even more positive once we get to around the second week of this month with even more cold air being trapped in the Arctic region instead of coming into the mid-latitude regions.

Meanwhile, the above chart for the NAO doesn't look quite so alarming, but it still shows the NAO remaining positive as a result of us remaining in a more zonal pattern of weather under a strong polar vortex. Furthermore, this also goes against Gavin P.'s earlier forecast for a weakly negative NAO during this winter, which he gave out during last summer.

Have to say  I completely agree with you, I would be staggered if we get a decent cold spell this winter. Definitely has that 88/89 feel about it but with added 30 years of GW.

tally, I’m struggling to find your long range winter forecast 2019-20. Can you refresh my memory please ?? 😉

I think we need to look further upstream Doc, see what’s happening US and Pacific side for any prospects of winter proper. I’m actually going for 18c on Tuesday, but realise that’s a hopecast rather than any solid forecast. 

As I understand it those charts are derived from the model output, not an independent dataset.

Yes, I think they are derived from the GFS (MRF) data.