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Brian Gaze
06 January 2020 18:34:56


 


Assume it depends on what they're talking about - from the Dec CET thread it was 0.74c above the latest 30 year period for the CET area. It may well be different for the UK and if you're comparing with a different period


The CET was 5.8c, which was 0.7c above the last 30 year average of 5.1c, so obviously not what that press article is referring to.


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


I believe it is referring to the UK temperatures index rather than CET. The Met Office often use it in their climate summaries. I think 1.3C is a notable anomaly and suggests we could be heading for one of the 10 (possibly 5) mildest winters on record. I will stand by that prediction. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Lionel Hutz
06 January 2020 18:42:27


 


 


For Britain, it will be Pennine regions, then lower levels from the far north of England into Scotland. In Ireland, only the northernmost 25% (ish), and even then mostly higher ground.


That'd be my interpretation from both Icon & FFS.


 


 


Edit: where did your post go??  


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I deleted it! I meant to repost when my attachment was fixed to the correct chart but then got called away. 


I'd say that your prediction is correct, though. Still, it's a straw to clutch at and we had few enough even of those this winter.


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



06 January 2020 18:49:29


 


December 2019
December experienced a range of weather conditions. It was 1.3 °C warmer than average with a mean temperature for the UK of 5.1 °C.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/record-breaking-year-concludes-record-breaking-decade


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Equal 24th warmest December since the UK series started in 1910. Obviously well below the exceptional record year of 2015 when the mean UK temperature was 7.9C. 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/ranked/UK.txt


I am expecting a much bigger positive anomaly in January based on the current output.

Brian Gaze
06 January 2020 18:50:29


 


Equal 24th warmest December since the UK series started in 1910. Obviously well below the exceptional record year of 2015 when the mean UK temperature was 7.9C. 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/ranked/UK.txt


I am expecting a much bigger positive anomaly in January based on the current output.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
marco 79
06 January 2020 19:05:10
Signals look so dominant for Trop Maritime/ Maritime....Jet looks lock in for next 2 to 3 weeks across UK...Only ripple to possibly break this is the trough sinking through Western Canada ...not much to hope for before Feb this side of the Atlantic..
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
White Meadows
06 January 2020 19:41:16
ECM = 🤢🤢🤢🤢
Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2020 20:01:02

ECM = 🤢🤢🤢🤢

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


 


CET 8c


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
picturesareme
06 January 2020 20:02:49


 


I believe it is referring to the UK temperatures index rather than CET. The Met Office often use it in their climate summaries. I think 1.3C is a notable anomaly and suggests we could be heading for one of the 10 (possibly 5) mildest winters on record. I will stand by that prediction. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


1868/69 holds the current warmest UK winter CET @ 6.77C.


February's has stood since 1779 😮 @ 7.9C

fairweather
06 January 2020 20:04:54

Looks like the one day cold snap on the 13th could lead to ground frost in the South and see temperatures plummeting to 7C. This is what it has come to! 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
JACKO4EVER
06 January 2020 20:13:13


Looks like the one day cold snap on the 13th could lead to ground frost in the South and see temperatures plummeting to 7C. This is what it has come to! 


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Hope that’s not the highlight of this winter😆


dreadful output again if it’s cold your after, this pattern looks locked for at least the next 7 to 10 days, and possibly longer given the upstream signals 

seringador
06 January 2020 20:32:45
The models are strugling to be honest with themselves ..🤒
The jetstream is futher north then usual and until they begin to show some disruption along the eastern seaboard USA there os no hope for a Iceland plunge and the European High is sitting on the wrong place...😭
Extremes
Max Temp: 40.2ºC (03.08.2018)
Min Temp: -1.1ºC ( 03.01.2021)
Porto 86m and Campeã 820m (Marão 1414m)
@planoclima
Rob K
06 January 2020 20:52:23


 


Hope that’s not the highlight of this winter😆


dreadful output again if it’s cold your after, this pattern looks locked for at least the next 7 to 10 days, and possibly longer given the upstream signals 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


To be fair we have had at least one fairly seasonal week this winter albeit right at the start of December. Glasgow even managed an ice day!


Haven’t got close to any -10 overnight minima here though which is usually the mark of a decent cold spell down here. Coldest so far this winter has been -6C. Meanwhile last nights min was +6.3C!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Sevendust
06 January 2020 22:34:17

Decent uptick in rainfall on the 9th, otherwise nothing new at the moment

Weathermac
06 January 2020 23:25:39
That dam of frigid Arctic air will burst sooner or later just need to be patient and watch for the jet to start digging south .
Gandalf The White
07 January 2020 00:06:50


Decent uptick in rainfall on the 9th, otherwise nothing new at the moment


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Good summary.


The scale used on the London ECM 12z ensemble temperature chart sums it up perfectly: +15c down to -2c. The sort of scale you might expect in March/April. It seems the only uncertainty is whether it will be slightly mild or very mild.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Matty H
07 January 2020 01:05:08
BEST
WINTER
EVER!!!
scillydave
07 January 2020 06:55:04

BEST
Summer
EVER!!!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


Fixed your post for you Matty!


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 January 2020 07:22:59

No real let up in the Jetstream, though less of a roaring beast from Fri 17th onward.


GFS this morning mostly zonal, stronger flow for the first week, slacker later. Minor brief interruptions, LP on Thu 9th and Tue 21st, HP Sat 18th. ECM agrees


GEFS temps oscillating about the seasonal average, though the op takes an interesting dip around the 22nd everywhere. Rainfall as yesterday mostly in N & W; notably around 14th-17th (earlier in the N) and drier after. Little change in pattern in the FI 'postage stamps'.


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Maunder Minimum
07 January 2020 07:51:22

Only one positive about this typical non-winter winter - at least the models are unrelenting in spewing out dross, so we are not left chasing any gold at the end of the rainbow, since the models are not providing the faintest glimmer of any hope.


New world order coming.
nsrobins
07 January 2020 08:42:25


Only one positive about this typical non-winter winter - at least the models are unrelenting in spewing out dross, so we are not left chasing any gold at the end of the rainbow, since the models are not providing the faintest glimmer of any hope.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I beg to differ - there will always been faint glimmers as there have been throughout the last few weeks of unremitting zonal on the GFS ops. Take GEM this morning for instance, or half a dozen of the GEFS suite. As likely as it is that these glimmers are just spikes in the noise, a rapid pattern change has happened before and could well happen again.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Polar Low
07 January 2020 08:53:16

Thats a very sensible and true post.


 



 


I beg to differ - there will always been faint glimmers as there have been throughout the last few weeks of unremitting zonal on the GFS ops. Take GEM this morning for instance, or half a dozen of the GEFS suite. As likely as it is that these glimmers are just spikes in the noise, a rapid pattern change has happened before and could well happen again.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Gusty
07 January 2020 09:09:13

No changes...more of the same. Truly locked in pattern. The far reaches of FI is now 23rd January.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Arcus
07 January 2020 10:05:23

Yesterday's ECM MFS offers very little other than a continuation of similar temperature profiles for the moth ahead. Amazing the consistency of high +ve anomalies over N and NW Europe.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 January 2020 10:30:11


Yesterday's ECM MFS offers very little other than a continuation of similar temperature profiles for the moth ahead. Amazing the consistency of high +ve anomalies over N and NW Europe.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


MFS = moth friendly scenario? It probably is


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
JACKO4EVER
07 January 2020 10:37:36


No changes...more of the same. Truly locked in pattern. The far reaches of FI is now 23rd January.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


yes possibly the heart of mid winter being unceremoniously ripped away again. Variations on a theme today, mild dry interludes and mild wet interludes with some bouts of wind thrown in. 

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