Yes, I've been thinking that for the last few runs.  What we might get instead is still problematic but as the latter reaches of the GFS 12z show it only takes a day or two to shuffle the pieces on the board and deliver something quite different to the unrelenting zonality.

If there is a pattern change does that mean, as predicted by some, that winter is over?

Still a very strong signal for a significant rise in pressure from later next week

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens4.php?x=&y=&ext=1&run=12&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0

The mean climbs over 30mb but the Op increases by almost double that (58mb from trough to peak)

The increase in the op run here is about 75mb or more. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1 

...and GFS finally looking at Phase 7 MJO in 2 weeks time! Woooo! High latitude blocking guaranteed!

Probably...

...possibly....

i would say none just a tale I heard one wondered if anyone else.

Sorry, I tend to use London. I should realise there are other cities.....

Not unusually, ECM isn't buying the pressure rise at all - at least not in the Op run.

No worries I wasn’t complaining, I was just pointing out that it is even more extreme up here in terms of an increase.

I wonder if the ECM op run was hinting at a change on the day 10 chart. Although of course all the usual caveats of a single op run and at day 10 applies! It may be worth a peek at the extended ensemble data and of course subsequent runs (at day 9/10). 

Well the GFS run might make it even harder to achieve that top 10 mildest winter place (), although as GTW has mentioned the ECM Op at least isn't buying the HP build which helps to cool things down on the GFS. Both models though do have cooler air than recently although again GFS keener to bring colder air over the country than the ECM. In the near to mid term neither is anything exciting temp wise, both are unsettled with the potential for some stormy conditions at times.

The GFS ens did sniff out a similar HP build before Xmas (as judging by the MetO online forecast did their models) although sadly the Atlantic was too strong at that stage and shunted it all south with only a couple of days of  proper inversion conditions and a lot of gloomy weather afterwards (down here at least anyway).

Hopefully this time round the HP can build further North and won't just get shoved aside, which would also help to get some cold air building in to Europe as shown on the (I know it won't happen as shown) T384 chart.

I heard it, I think from my father. But it was three weeks from the eastern US in the version I heard. What took it so long?  It's all nonsense, of course.

I always thought there was a hint of logic in that belief: eastern seaboard trough; mid-Atlantic ridge; trough around Scandinavia.  Lots of other options, of course.

Check out the GEFS mean at 168 hours !

Rock solid strong zonal agreement. All 20 perts are virtually identical.

By 240 hours the mean becomes less reliable naturally but there is a weakish signal to build pressure from the south. Its worth mentioning that there are a fair few unsettled options remaining at that stage so confidence for a transition to something a little more settled has to be relatively low.

The ECM does not appear interested at the monent killing the wave in phase 6 although the model appears to have a bias for killing the MJO early. I think the gfs nwp model is trying to interpret a fairly high amplitude phase 7 wave in mid to long range. Lets hope the gfs is right about the MJO wave otherwise we may well stay in a similar pattern that we are in now.

Also a high amp phase 7 going into 8 and 1 could very well lead to a SSW a bit further down the line. Fingers crossed and all that.

The MJO wave is not forecast for another 10 to 15 days.

That first chart could momentarily bring rather chilly conditions given how cold the Greenland and Canada regions are currently. 

You omitted ‘Tease’

yes - straw clutching definition -'to be glad that the final FI modelled day resumes a tease to a possible change to something ,ore fun than Zonal flip flop between rather cool and very mild. LOL

but it's the best on offer right now. 

It is the time of year that the jet should weaken a little - so here' hoping.....

Jet still strong around the south of the UK for week 1 though looping around more than it has been, It has a major hiccup on Monday after which it resumes more weakly on a more northerly track. Still plenty of energy leaving America at the end of the run but not clear whether its heading N or S

GFS outlook less zonal than yesterday with the storms 14th-17th ramped up and well developed HP 20th - 22nd, Still that interesting link of HP from near Europe to Greenland at the end of the run. ECM keeps the stormy spell going a bit longer, may not develop the HP (just off end of run)

GEFS temps up and down but always around seasonal normal, rain heaviest in the 14th - 17th spell, not surprisingly, and drier later. FI postage stamps showing less warmth being pumped northwards but no really cold air around

I suspect we'll see a Bores high pressure at best. Very doubtful it will lead to a lengthy period of cold and frosty weather for most of the UK. Sure there'll be some frost, but my guess is we'll be looking at the charts and thinking "if only that high pressure moved a couple of cms". 

Are you having an argument with yourself?