The thing is, 21st January is, at the moment, in deepest FI territory as far as the model output is concerned. The signal for a mild & zonal set-up at that time may well be a strong one, but that is going on the assumption that that signal will be proved to be correct. It may well be ultimately proved right, but I submit at the same time that since 21st January is a full fortnight away, we cannot be sure whether the signal will be correct or not until that date is in the more reliable timeframe which is still a considerable way off at the moment.

Just for accuracy, we will be at the mid-point of winter on 15th January.  Arguably that's as far as the reliable modelling goes and beyond that there are signs of some sort of change.

Two-thirds of winter will have elapsed on 30th January.

It might still be mild but it doesn't look nailed on.

15th Jan puts us 3 weeks in or about 1/3rd through   Mid point is around February 4th.

Where is that Thread? Sure I recall a thread saying "Death of mid winter easterly" etc...?

not sure Tally, but I’ve had it as my signature strap for years 

There was one subjected "Death of mid winter easterly!" prob have to go back several pages ha.

Back OT:

Again look at that northern ridge sitting to the central and southern parts of Alaska and to the NE of the pacific which is almost persistent until 210z.

This really isn't helping at all. What do you think?

I would normally agree, but looking at the wider picture over Europe, the consistency of the models and the London ensembles (and I was talking South of England) I am for once prepared to stick my neck out and say there will be no notable cold spell before the 21st of January. (Barring an unforseen catastrophic event!) That leaves five and a half weeks of winter. I accept that those weeks could be one long cold spell and anything is possible but we are dealing with probabilities here and when you've lived through my 70 year lifetime that wouldn't probably make it "a memorable" winter for me, which is why I also qualified it with "depending on your age" ;-)

Wasn't there a time when winters were going to be perpetually dominated by mid-Atlantic (Bartlett) high pressure?

No sign of that this morning, continuing westerly or southwesterly and rather windy through to Thu 23rd Jan, interrupted briefly by ridge of HP Mon 20th Jan and troughs on Tue-Thu 14-16th (the latter bringing a low close to N Scotland and stormy for a day or two up there). Substantial block with ridge to Greenland as today's end-of-run teaser on Fri 24th. ECM agrees with the above GFS though the 14th-17th disturbed spell comes further south.

GEFS temps going up and down either side of the seasonal average (control run has an interesting dip at the end), rainfall showing up for the 14th-17th but less in the SE where rain is due this week. Inverness has more general rain/snow with an impressive run of 20+ snow row figures. FI postage stamps have some members deep into FI with cold air making its way into western Europe but not yet to bank on.

Best GEFS update for a while. Some big rain events in all areas and a greater chance of snow in the north. I'll bank. 

Looks pretty miserable to me. Give me calm high pressure any day. Not as if we’re in the middle of a drought.

The wavy pattern suggests unsettled and Westerly. In terms of surface temperatures at this time of year I’d expect this pattern - slightly warmer than Av uppers with lots of wind - to be milder than high pressure with very high uppers.

Wind is going to be the main source of interest in the next 2 weeks. Some pretty stormy days coming up.

Yep, even down here next week looks wet and very windy.  We've had a short respite rom the incessant rainfall recently, but close to where I live the spring lines have 'woken up' and we have groundwater flowing already. Who knows how it'll react to another week of rainfall on the hills above.

This is hard work - each day looking for some hope ……………..maybe the last week of Jan is it? HP desperate to locate near our shores , maybe , just maybe some fog and frost to start ?

There is definitely signs of a change towards the end of the ensembles, these are 2m temperatures

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

The next few days are mild (and for our guest viewers there are 8 rows for each date near the top, but just 4 per day later on, so don't get misled on quick glance), it is obvious that more of the cooler colours (including blues) are at the end.   There is also quite an inconsistency in the temperatures between the various runs in those last few rows.

Nothing significant, or an obvious change, but a trend back from mild to more normal temperatures, nothing very cold, some short colder interludes, but nothing mild in the second week.

The final row is showing 13 of the 22 as blue coloured, that suggests at extreme range (which is not usually as accurate) there is the beginnings of a trend to some colder weather.   Too early for any clarity, but I wouldn't write off late Jan or Feb for more wintery weather yet.

Is that via the Pacific, Asia and Europe or Canada and the Atlantic?

None of the above; the shortest route is straight over the Pole.

Yes definite signs of cold air making its way into Europe by the third week of January. Whether it can make it to Britain is another matter but some calmer and colder conditions under high pressure look likely.