Good

I really am now an old git as I like the mild these days and I really feel the cold now. Age really does change you (but my politics hasn't!)

GFS is trying its best to give us a winter lets hope its onto something. ECM  still being a Scrooge though. 

06 GFS run - HP tries to build to our north around +240z but then get's flattened so it's only a 2-3 day wonder really for most!! That's if it does verify? -notice that BLOCK over Alaska - it just keeps building forcing areas of LP to sink southwards and into the central and Northern states and Canada to bring winter for them and then it blows up the jet and gets carried along across the N.Atlantic.

Interesting looking at it from a northern Hemisphere view:

+252

+264

+276

+288

+300 - That Alaskan HP again!?

@312 HP starts to sink SE:

Even that HP trying to build to bring us a slack weak 2 day easterly is in a minority and perhaps an outlier too compared to it's ensemble members from the 17th:

Wouldn`t be the first time the Ensembles follow the OP run though so fingers crossed.

Rob - Yes even on the 00z run the Operational was amongst the coldest and virtually a outlier between 17th and 22nd like in above 06z run:

Either it's ensemble members will have to shift colder to match operational or the operational will shift milder to match it's ensemble members. the 12z GFS and ECM will be crucial.

The ECM 00z ensemble for London:

At least it looks like a return to normal temperatures but no indication at all of cold weather.

absolutely, not as mild as it has been but certainly nothing of interest for colder weather fans. 

I would expect a slightly less cyclonic and less mobile pattern based on the hints towards the end of next week. Whether that is still mild or something a bit colder is even less certain. 

Another tease from the GFS on the 12Z. The next few frames after the end of the run would probably be quite interesting. Lots of very cold air stored up over Greenland, -30s and below, ready to head south with a bit of high pressure retrogression? Well we can hope...

I have the same thought as I had when there was a brief easterly in the earlier run: the pattern around the Pole needs to break first and there’s no real sign yet.

The 10hPa wind pattern certainly isn’t showing any slackening; if anything the winds are stronger over us by the end:

Isn't it chicken and egg though? What will break the pattern over the pole if not high pressure moving north and deflecting the winds?

Well, you need the jet stream to throttle back and what’s happening in the stratosphere doesn’t suggest that’s going to happen. You’re not going to get upper height rises through a strong jet.

Possibly signs that high pressure won't have as much influence later this month as was looking likely. Could just be noise but there appear to be more rain spikes in the last few days than on recent updates. Regardless of that the guidance still doesn't suggest a wintry outbreak.

I saw a Met Office broadcast a few days ago where the presenter was saying, "the reason for this is the..". In this instance I think he mentioned the jet stream. The next question would be why is the jet stream so strong and taking the track it is. The chicken and egg nature of these factors never seems to be addressed. 

Until very recently the GFS was showing a widespread risk of snow showers this Sunday and at times they were approaching the home counties. Here's the latest view.

thats about as depressing as it could get, strength, organisation and persistence. 

But it (PV wind profile) is still just a projection of a model algorithm that is, in all parameters, subject to change. Sometimes quite dramatic change.

Why should this particular parameter at 15 days out be endowed with any more confidence than any other chart at the same range?