Quite. That is something else I have never understood.

show me something else equally as credible ?

it doesn’t take a huge leap of faith to maintain the status quo given current output. 

I take your point but it’s broadly the same shape and intensity throughout the entire run.

Because it’s pretty consistent throughout the 16 days, just tweaks to exact shape and intensity.

12 z ENS

Yet again the Operational run is a cold outlier between 17th and 23rd:

I wonder what the ECM will say?

I think 'quite amazing' is stretching it a tad, with all due respect. There may be a change coming but if anything the GEFS signal for higher pressure and a cooler outlook has weakened over the past 24 hours of the output.

FWIW I still think we'll get a quieter, more settled end to the month but I don't see anything too exciting for coldies right now 

Last nights 240 hrs GEFS mean

Tonights 216 hrs GEFS

Last night's 'tease' of a mild high moving up from the south has been watered down on tonight's run for the same time in favour of a more mobile zonal pattern.

Interesting development at the end of this evening's ECMWF operational run.

The signal is now there for a marked pressure rise. The question is exactly where the centre will sit.

Tonights 'end of the run' ECM tease sat very low in the pack. 

Assuming that we're still sticking with the first letter T, how about 'tranquilising'?

Seriously, at least it's potentially something a little different.

...tranquilising works.

Indeed though GTW, its a little different. It comes to something when we are looking for subtle height rises to our south at 216 hours in an attempt to break us out of this deadlock.

Except subtle “height rises to the south” is not what we are looking at or for. Even if it were it is more than has been evident in the past couple of weeks. Hopefully the trend will continue and we will get some form of pattern change. 

Before all that there is some (very) unsettled conditions to get through. 

ECM 12z ensemble (sorry, Michael, it's for London again...):

Tentative signs of something below average showing up as the dominant cluster beyond Day 10.  As you say, before that a fair bit of weather to negotiate.

Rainfall (no point in calling it precipitation):

Wind:

GFS has Atlantic-sourced weather, alternating LP and HP. LP 14th Jan, 950 mb Rockall and 24th Jan, 970 mb Shetland; HP 21st Jan, 1045 mb English Channel. The HP brings mild air a long way north and the second LP brings cold air quite a long way south. ECM agrees but places the first LP deeper (935 mb) and further off (S of Iceland)

GEFS line graphs of temp a bit irregular but generally matching the above, cooler with the LP, milder with the HP, rainfall from first LP heaviest S & W, from the second event more in the N. Snow row figures suggest Scottish ski resorts should do quite well if you can pick the days when you don't get blown away!

ECM 00z ensemble for London:




Still a signal for a potential return to normal temperatures from next weekend but nothing dramatic. A few runs do offer very cold weather but they're very much in the minority and similarly a few continue to suggest mild periods.

Can't recall seeing a worse set of postage stamps than these. 

Now that I have become a mild booster, these are good for the SE. Would prefer to stay dry and limited wind and hopefully get some sunshine

I have long given up on mid winter deep cold, and we are nearly past that stage now anyway. The evenings are getting longer, and stuff is growing in the garden and insects and snails are active. Climate change (if this is the new normal) will be very good for us going forward in terms of the new things we will be able to grow

Remarkably consistent signal for a mostly settled spell with some pleasantly chilly nights and benign days.

All looking very winter 91/92 after we get rid of next week's atlantic onslaught.

1991/92 was the winter of persistent strato-cumulus.