Even that seems to be fading, for the south at least. Yesterday's band of snow across S England has gone from the Snow Forecast site and it and other models e.g. ICON. MetO are now suggesting more limited snowfall such as hill snow in Wales and the north with a possibility for the Cotswolds. GFS, while bringing cold air south on Mon/Tue 27th/28th does so less forcefully than yesterday. 

After that a week of windy weather, mostly from the SW, until high pressure sets up SW of Ireland 1045mb Wed 5th Feb (the northerlies pass us by but a dramatic Mistral is there), slowly transferring to Belgium 1030 mb by Mon 10th. ECM similar but not as windy.

GEFS ens line graphs show rain/snow for Tue 28th (less pptn & snow row figure for one day only for most of UK!) followed by a bit below normal temps for a few days; rain and milder around the weekend of Feb 1st-3rd, after which dry-ish and pick your favourite run for cold or mild weather.

Further afield, Russia is seeing below average temps for the first time this winter http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 and some sporadic snowfall across central Europe later on (ICON, Wed 29th Jan). No evidence of a concerted move in this direction

Maximum temperatures during Tuesdays 'cold snap'.

Projected precipitation type at the height of the 'cold snap' (18:00hrs Tues)

It Yes, still looking more seasonal on Monday and Tuesday on this morning’s output. Slim pickings but better than the last few weeks. Some may even see their first flakes of snow of the winter. As you would expect with cold from the west/northwest it will be the east/southeast least affected and this is shown in the charts. Corresponding ones for further north will naturally show a different picture and the first mention of “lying snow” this winter is present in today’s Met Office forecast for this region.

Nothing extreme, nothing prolonged but just a hint of winter for some of the country:

As I said slim pickings but perhaps the final month of the winter will be better (not that there are real signs of that currently although it’s not in reliable range yet).

Even then temps of 7c are average for January. - So nothing cold!?

Just an average day really. Wind, rain and snow for n. Hills....

That's it.

Not really no. Just a brief but more seasonal snap based on the models. Although of course the models could very well be overdoing the wintriness. This is the latest data from the 06z GFS ensemble suite showing the probability of (falling) snow in the 24 hours to Tuesday 6am 

Yet on BBC it shows rain for many and any snow reserved for the n. Hills - I think that chart certainly does over-do the snow and perhaps counts that every snowflake that does fall will settle when in actual fact it's really sleet.

This BBC? “Monday will see showery rain, falling as sleet or snow at low levels in the north, clearing to the east.”

There won’t be any snow here as it is from a westerly flow but other low lying areas may see some. That aside, the chart I posted is for snow probability not settling snow.

The 12z output is largely similar to the previous runs in the reliable time frame.

Meanwhile a warming of the stratosphere at 10hpa looks likely? Whether or not this becomes a SSW and reverse the zonal winds - is too early to tell. But something to keep an eye on. - either way this should weaken the PV.  

Good luck 👍

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=3&mode=45&map=430

Sadly a  so called cold zonal type Patten is is useless for 90%+ of people who are looking for any meaningful cold or snow 

If meaningful snow implies I can scrape a sludgy mix off my car then I'll be happy. No, seriously I would....

Same as, sadly even seeing a flake of snow is highly unlikely for the foreseeable 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=333&y=104 

Comes about as one of the Atlantic lows coming off the conveyor belt forms a bit further south and the trough digs pretty far south as it moves through the mid-Atlantic. Jet looks pretty amplified by 192. Although the high pressure belt does push back and the low then tracks further north, pressure remains low over Eastern Europe and much of Germany with the N Africa/Euro High restricted to Iberia & France. As such, the track of the low allows a fledgling GH to form, and the alignment of the low as it crosses the UK is favourable to drag in colder air from the north.

The GFS 18z, on the other hand, doesn't develop that initial low as far south, doesn't show anything like as amplified a jet, and keeps the horrible N Africa/Euro High larger and extending further east, leading  the low to filling and dissipating. However, GFS then shows the NA/Euro high first expanding westwards into the Atlantic, then ridging north towards Greenland and introducing a coldish N'ly flow to the UK. The 18z gives the high enough 'oomph' to act as a block, but the next low is hammering hard at it and inching it back eastwards. It's so far out it's unlikely to pan out anything like that but, even if it does, we've seen many times how the block ends up much further east and the cold gives the UK a glancing blow at best.

In both scenarios, it's all a bit 'a thousand pieces need to fall into place'.

Yes zonal winds went very strong 1st day of winter as did the weather turn much milder and more zonal - same for AO and NAO went positive:

NAO may go negative albeit weakly so which coincides with a brief colder snap on Tuesday and Wednesday.  - Then  back to normality!?

Strength of zonal winds 60 degrees N @ 10hpa look like weakening and many ens members going for a SSW some reversing the zonal winds!? If this happens then we could see some colder more blocked weather (finally) in 2nd half of February. Otherwise it's the old colder snap and then back to zonality for the next week to 10 days...! Time is ticking now..!

Jetstream continues to zoom through the UK, a bit less direct for a few days at the beginning of Feb, but soon resumes.

GFS shows generally westerly flow; cold NW on Tue 28th as well forecasted but less severe; mild SW Sun 2 Feb with HP over France and another HP cell developing to the SW of Ireland after that (but Mon 10th has an interesting but unconvincing trough running down the E coast, for one day only)

ECM similar but weaker HP on Sun 2nd allows a brief more northerly flow.

GEFS ens has some rain 27th/29th Jan, snow a possibility even in the south on Sun 28th, then dry, more rain 1st/3rd Feb but less than forecast yesterday, then mostly dry. Temps dip around the 29th but soon rise to above normal and stay there until 3rd Feb, after which the mean is close to normal. Rain less intense but more persistent in Scotland, and snow more possible (but only in far north is it probable), also the temperature variation less marked.

Pert 3 at T=300 is for coldies, but only one pert and brief at that

No sign of winter at all in the next 2 weeks especially from the Midlands south and reading the Met update i think we can write off most of February too so the crapfest continues alas.

Yes the heights to our South are relentless. We've had some mild Winters over the last 30 years, but I'm struggling to remember one where there has been such a scarcity of snow or even sleet in central Scotland by the end of January. The output from the models run after run, day after day has hardly changed and have been carbon copies of the former since November. Quite astonishing really.

It would be interesting to know how the traffic in this MO thread compares to years gone by out to January. I dare say this Winter would see the lowest traffic ever by a wide margin!

I Know - more of the same old! I can't believe here we are now end of January and still not even seen anything wintry or cold. Oh well - fingers crossed for a hail shower on Tuesday!?

Meanwhile temps in Strat over Arctic are rising fast around 200z @ 10hpa:

Not enough to reach SSW levels but a significant warming looks likely now/

Control:

Operational