Feb was mean't to be a drier month as well? The PV is just so strong all 3 months and has been for months now.

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ECM again lagging behind GFS with a significant swing back to a sinking high and westerly mobility. I know GFS can go off on a tangent but this is usually reserved for the >180hr period and it has recently improved nearer term in that it quickly settles in to a general idea of the surface Synoptics as we approach +144.
ECM however suffers from quite wild swings even at fairly close range.

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What’s that saying... February follows where January goes.

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I do wonder if the failure of this potential for a SSW a day or so ago - has meant that the GFS models have flipped back to mild and wet? - Just interesting how the minute the models for temps in stratosphere @ 10hpa are no longer showing a SW or SSW - coincides with the following GFS Models which no longer anything cold or anything that was cold or showing and northerly or north easterly has now all but gone!?

So I do wonder when - only a day or so back the models esp the operational was showing cold - they picked up on the SSW?

I wonder if the ECm will follow?

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GFS is very definitely third behind ECM and Met O and maybe be dropping behind others  at T+144 in verification stats this is causing major  problems at NOAA who are having a big rethink about GFS and its future. This is not a comment on next weeks weather.

If that's the case about gfs then you can't say it has the pattern nailed yet then so perhaps we will get Northerly

couple of things...
1... sustained signals of somethng perhaps disrutpingly wintry towards early -mid february. Perhaps someblocking, but overall the pattern seems to be colder in general with the jet overall seemingly further south that has been throughout winter. If nothing more, the hills will be white for extended periods.

2. Sunday Morning has potential to be some short term snow, especially for central parts, but not exclusively. The timing of the front arriving, after a cold night, with intensity and low wind values has some decent ingredients for localised snowfall. This has been consistent on perhaps the last half a dozen runs with even the ECM now joining in with the fun and games. There is the slightest hint that the front might slide across the UK keeping a portion north enough to remain on the cold side for more sustained snowfall... we shall see.

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It’s all hints and accusations.
In the meantime a blend of the NWP going forward looks remarkable like the medium term UKM outlook, which tweaks aside has been unwaveringly going for near average temps and quite unsettled before drier cooler stuff takes over.
No sign - nor has there been - of anything you’d remotely call classically wintry.

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Probability forecasts suggest the smart money is on a mild Feb (although uncertainty with SSW and polar vortex disruption possible). Would make Dec, Jan & Feb all milder than average & winter *possibly* in the top 10 mildest ever recorded in the UK. https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/WmuXapTqcM

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) January 29, 2020

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It is interesting to read this and it really doesn’t surprise me based on its performance since th last “upgrade”.

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Despite that it is worth noting that at 10 days GFS is outperforming ECM. What it shows IMHO is that when you go beyond 5 or 6 days improvements and additional data inputs make very small differences to model performance. In fact I wonder whether it is worth continuing ploughing money into model upgrades when the improvements are now so minor. Perhaps it is time to explore different avenues, for example as Google are doing.

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I'd "Save As.." on that Brian. A collector's item.

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I think I'm correct in saying there is usually VERY little difference at 10 days. 

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...small margins indeed, but consistently ECM (and quite often GEM) is above GFS.

I've rarely seen GFS over ECM at 10 days before.

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I think it's all strange...the jet should be weekening now, but wow it's just crazy and mad.

This was the hottest year ever, the poles are very cold, due to the bottling up effect of a strong PV, so there's a big contrast north to south as there is so much heat in the oceans right now, this must be the cause of the the super jet...

yes exquinoxial gales early doors and yes probably a potently cold spring, with late frosts and plenty of NE winds, just too late for much more than a chill lazy wind - and then we don't like it up us at all - mr Mainwaring.

Shame - I really thought this winter was going to be it...the memorable one. So it is - but for all the wrong reasons.

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Here here!

Me too - jet should be weakening, PV should weaken as should zonal winds and temps in the stratosphere should be warming up and we are seeing the exact opposite.

Long range models go for a well above February. My guess is that this January's CET will come out at 6.3c beating Novembers CET of 6.2c. 

I wonder how February will turn out - given what happened in Feb 2019 last year!?

The only comfort I get is that the whole of Europe is experiencing well above average temperatures and this has been the case for many weeks and months now.

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In terms of statistical significance at that timescale seaweed is probably just as good. When the models’ op runs are useful in isolation (day 5/6) the stats show that the ECM and UKMO consistently outperform the GFS(v3).

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Yep, next month temps apparently more akin to April/May:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

i hope so. a repeat of last February with temperatures approaching the 20s would be smashing. 

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Sadly going by the latter part of the 18z GFS, the only things smashing will probably be greenhouses and sheds. 

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BBC 9.55 weather still going for colder next week after Mondays rain

A comment on GFS vs ECM and Met Office on a specific area. This winter to date and last winter repeatedly, we have had the Met Office spot forecasts for mountain locations in Northern Scotland (and thus I presume the Met Office models) keeping things cool, right side of marginal with significant snow at height even up to within 48hours or less. While the GFS has persistently shown milder and just rain, without fail the GFS has been right and sometimes shockingly last minute the Met Office mountain forecasts fall in line! 

Is this something that is amiss with the Met Office spot forecasts and how they are created from the model data, or is despite Met Office models global validation stats showing it performing better, is it actually performing poorly at home so to speak and the GFS is better at Highland Scotland?

Notice Iceland/Greenland etc still colder than average!? - That's the PV isn't it!?

Russia - Moscow has seen temps some 10c about normal so far this winter so no change for the whole continent really!?

 

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Good grief, that's similar to the temperature anomaly the CFS was forecasting for December 2015 in the months preceding it! If those temperatures persist into the spring, then Europe could be in for one hell of a heat wave this summer!

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The ECM 12z ensemble set has moderated the cold snap and shows no proper cold beyond that.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html 

The usual caveats apply.

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