Maybe, but i think the 151 year old record warmest is safe this season 😉

Yes where is the 'winter is over thread' or more appropriate 'what happened to winter, or the winter than never arrived' thread?

I have given up now - i now check the GFS every 2-3 days and still not seeing any changes and if anything a strong PV and strengthened zonal flow caused by a colder than average temps in stratosphere so it seems - hence more wind more rain and more flooding! 

Can't believe we are having 3 months of the same old weather pattern with drier interludes only lasting for a day or so.

Worse winter ever! Sorry this is the model output thread just remembered.

But just very little of interest from a snow prospective to talk about but decent news for highland Scotland - ski resorts will be pleased. At least they will have some snow from cold zonality. But otherwise this no go' of a winter continues.

For Central England, the 10th warmest winter is 1935. To overtake this February needs to be something like 6.12c or warmer. Depending on the exact figure for Janaury and if my maths are right. Looks achievable.

Thanks. 

History suggests that’ll  be the catalyst the coldies need that will ensure winter suddenly appears. That’s assuming the normal snowmageddon predictions that turn to a mildfest work in reverse. 

What was the final Central England Temperature reading for last February, out of interest? I know we had that record-breakig mild spell during the second half of the month but from what I recall reading afterwards, it wasn't enough to make last February the mildest on record.

It was 6.7C which is joint 15th warmest in the series. The mildest is 7.9C back in 1779.  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Funnily enough my FB memories came up today showing a glorious sunny day with deep snow and blue skies a year ago today 

Showing of course that the CET figures don't necessarily tell the whole story!

According to Trevor Harley's excellent website, February 2019 had a CET of 6.7C, which is apparently the mildest February since 2002.

Thanks Nick, and Rob too. Much appreciated.

The deepest snow round here since 2010. 19cm at Odiham on Feb 1, not quite that much here but still an impressive fall, heavy sticky snow that brought down a lot of trees and blocked roads locally. I won't forget my bike ride home from the station that night in a hurry... well I say bike ride but I ended up walking at least a mile of it!

Really 19cm fell on 31st January 2019? when Devon/Cornwall, somerset and Dorset had the heavy cold rain to heavy wet sticky snow event!?? wow! Exeter only got 2-3cms at best and it was a slushfest on roads and pavements on 31st January 2019 but just outside of Exeter there was up to 10cms of snow. I heard Bristol got a dumping of snow on 31st January 2019 as well!? 

Never knew you had more snow last year than what storm Emma delivered when we had the feast from the east. We had more during storm Emma - dumped 17cm of snow on 1st February 2018 (deeper ind rifts as it was powdery) and 1-2cm on 2nd February 2018 and then a flurry on 17th followed by further 15cm on 18th/19th March 2018. - Snowfall started wet and got drier as temps fell to -3c. If you tot up the total snowfall for year 2018 Exeter got well over 35cm of lying snow all together in the space of 2.5 weeks which wasn't bad for March esp for a city in south west ha.

Nice pics - reminds me of Lapland.

 Back to models...? Is it worth discussing..??

Zonality rules with some ENS uppers going well above average at end of the run now.

So another HP cell setting up stall over us from late week onwards. But why are the forecast temps so mild: 10-11c in the south and 8-9c up north?

It’s always worth discussing.

If it wasn’t for the potentially stormy conditions over the next two weeks this ‘winter’ may of gone down as the least interesting one I can remember for many a year - rivalling the legendary borefests of the late 90s. There is a serious chance of not seeing one flake of snow (here) and although not too rare, when combined with the persistence of the very mild temps it’s a very noteworthy winter for the ‘wrong’ reasons.

This is great news for coldies. Mr Murr has been an incredibly reliable indicator - sorry, contra-indicator -  of cold and snowy weather for as long as I can remember. Please bookmark this post, the next 7 days will see a profound change in forecast weather patterns.

Well, that was a mistake looking at the 18z GFS just before going to bed. Currently showing a vicious runner low passing right over Kent at the 11th Feb. Of course it is still subject to change but this "extended Autumn" has been like pulling teeth not in terms of snow hoping but hoping we'd get to break out of the zonal pattern sooner rather than later and take a short cut to Spring (like what this morning's run had hinted).

at least he is prepared to have a go, more than can be said for some who just criticise without offering anything themselves. He may get it wrong plenty of times, he may wear his heart on his sleeve, but he does have the balls to call it one way or another. I would sooner read his posts than  some of the drivel “I told you so” pieces that seem to infiltrate the MO thread.

back on topic and a very stormy spell is looking likely next week, some angry looking output. 

The current LP off NE Scotland is being more reluctant to leave than forecast; but leave it does and some quiet high pressure over the UK midweek.

The stormy stuff starts on Sunday 9th - expect gales or severe gales for a full week - GFS more active for longer than yesterday. By the end of it some polar maritime, even arctic air, being directed down from the north. Then it quietens down with a ridge of HP by Tue 18th, though the Atlantic is still gale-bedecked up near Greenland and that could yet restart the process.

ATM, both ECM and GFS go for continuous westerlies, but I'd expect small disturbances to turn up embedded in the flow and increase storminess locally.

GEFS Ens mtches the above. After a dry, even mild, spell to 9th Feb, rain/snow continues through to the end of the forecast with temps variable, average a little above normal in the south, a little below in the north. Not a great deal of pptn in W and N, presumably fronts get blown through quickly; most northern stations have a few snow row figures around 20 and Inverness has almost nothing but high teens/twenties.

No sign of prolonged cold but some indications of wintryness pushing southwards. The London snow row on the 00z update reaches 12 and there looks to be a decent amount of precip around. This could be the best chance so far this winter of seeing a few flakes of wet snow in the south.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

I reckon it'll be the storminess keeping your site numbers up though - next Sunday looking very windy pretty much countrywide and with the potential for some little runner lows it does look 'interesting'.

ECM T240, as it has on and off all winter, hints at a way out of the pattern with a weak pressure rise of Greenland looking to help the Azores HP move North but suspect that'll all be gone this evening 

The thing to watch for in the anticipated zonal onslaught in a weeks time is the formation of secondary features in the flow. The enhancement of already powerful surface winds could cause some issues