it does look awful. Just hope it gets moderated a bit as we get closer

Some very nasty weather shaping up next week.

Sunday, Wednesday and Friday are all earmarked as potential disruptive wind events.

Lots to keep an eye on.

Hopefully this is a case of the GFS going crazy developing a secondary low!

Yes I understand that and that is what this thread is all about. I think the issue might have been in the past where the predictions seem to be based on some deep rooted meteorological knowledge and newer less sanguine members tended to hang on his every word and then were upset when it rarely panned out. It will always be a difficult call because frankly, this is almost an astrological thread because genuine experts with billions of pounds of equipment can't predict past a week and quite often not even that. Of course in reality this thread has a majority of coldies and it struck me that people would often spring to his defence whilst being especially nasty to the equivalent mild protagonists with equally speculative predictions. But it is all just a bit of fun and hope casting really and so people should be left to suggest fearlessly without ridicule but accept counter arguments.

Sure does Steve. Reminds me of charts a few years back (think it was 2014) which showed the whole North Atlantic as one deep low pressure bowl.

The results were a lot of damage and coastal destruction to those areas exposed to the winds and seas. The 'double whammy' if you like is that there is a sequence of very high tides peaking Tuesday and Wednesday next week to coincide with these winds.

I think we can already call a headline maker for the wrong reasons. Some places are going to take a pounding.

Looking at the GEFS for Liverpool, the 'snow row' numbers for tomorrow are down to 2, after mostly being up to around 10 over the past several days.

The snow row numbers for that 11th-14th Feb period are still showing 19, 11, 15,10 for the four days; I expect them to plummet nearer the time.

Got some interesting weather on the cards over the next fortnight, a couple of hefty looking storms to shake us out of the bore-fest.

Yes, without wishing to sound like Truman or Boycott "..in my day" they are quite cold and potent North Westerlies.  We do not seem to get these down south much but I can remember getting on a bus in the morning in what was almost a blizzard and getting several inches of snow to find it turning to slush and gone by the evening with no freezing conditions. I wouldn't say it was common but I have a recollection of a few and it may well have been similar set ups to those shown in the later charts. Whether the extra degree or so will make a difference now we will have to see.

You can't knock Steve Murr's enthusiasm though. Just a shame whenever he posted things went 'tits up' soon after. Even the more knowledgeable are 'mortal'.

He reminds me of a poster called Tom Presutti where a number of years back would also stick his head up above the parapet and become more active with some 'delicious' sounding posts. Same fate too as most of his analysis resulted in false dawns, but were a good read!

In the very early days of TWO, when almost all of us were rather naive, Tom Presutti had us eating out of his hand with his promises of snowmageddon and use of impressive-sounding words

Great one.

Another keyboard warrior -

Theres a name from the past! Whatever happened to Tom Presutti? FWIW guys like Steve Murr, Gooner etc i always enjoyed/looked forward to reading their posts on here............sign of the times perhaps that they dont post as much with past enthusiasm.................

Tom P went to Australia I think.

Please refrain from making personal attacks on other posters. At the end of the day you decide who you listen to and who you don't. I've made my views clear before and won't reiterate them. 

The charts are looking similar to Jan 1984 in the longer term.
In Northern parts snowfall was frequent even at low levels, and conditions were extremely severe in the Highlands with severe wind-chill and 30ft snow-drifts in the Cairngorms.
Ski industry up there will be hoping these charts come off, it's been very poor season so far.

Even far South won't be out of the woods especially high ground.

He did.

Agree about the attacks. Not necessary.

I only mentioned Steve because it was unusual for a cold enthusiast (he won the TWO ramper award when it was run back in the day) to comment about winter being something of a lost cause.

One thing about the zonal onslaught is that the speed of air transfer from the cold Eastern Seaboard to our shores will be quick enough to reduce modification of the colder air pulses which may being some transient wintryness to quite low levels on occasion

I would tend to agree as things stand currently, although evidence from this winter would suggest that as the time approaches any wintry risk may decrease even if the storminess does not. As others have mentioned I think the wind may be the key feature next week.

The AO & NAO will break records in the next 8 days. 26 Feb 1990 holds the most positive AO record of 5.9. 

ECM high res was at +8 day 9 at the weekend then +7 on Sunday for day 8 - today is Day 7 ~ +6.5.

So for the next 8-12 days at least with those metrics lowland England will certainly struggle, but of course elevation in Scotland / NI / & NW ENG could do ok.

I come on here as a weather enthusiast pointing out routes to possible cold in the models often at day 7/8 - which often don't come to fruition - yet after 15 years doing that theres still people posting the same ol blah blah about me that was written in 2005. If you dontlike it just ignore - simple as.

There is a slither of hope post day 10 on ECM as the +AO starts to breakdown - so if anyones looking for proper lowland snow thats the starting point - post valentines day.

And long may you do so 

Many do appreciate your (and others') efforts to interpret MO, trends and wider drivers of the weather, so don't let the odd snipe get you down.

Indeed , always enjoy your input Steve keep going! Even in this most mild of winters

absolutely Saint, well said that man 

This wind is going to play havoc with my running schedule.