I guess the SE coast is basking in February sunshine and that is why 8c reached. The lower temps have to be associated with heavy showery activity. 

Anyway largely irrelevant as unfortunately I cannot see it working out like that.  GFS probably overdoing the cold air, look at ECm for the same period,  nowhere near as cold. 

As much as you tend to think the air has travelled around the LP. As its an area of low pressure its effectively sucking in air from all directions including its southern flank. HPs are pushing air our from their cells and vice versa for the LP. So to the south of the UK their cold air is mpre modified atlantic air, where as the air to the north is likely to be more of the polar variety.

It was similar in January 1984.  Trace back the isobars and some comes off the Greenland central massif (the air that affects Scotland) and some is dragged across the southern tip of Greenland but is mainly maritime in "origin" and affects the far south.

Yes quite a strong signal for high pressure late in the run. One member is record breakingly so at the end, going up to 1055mb!

I reckon that's the one to watch. Just suppose it dips a bit further south.

This could well be the most interesting spell of the winter coming up. I think there are too many options for it not to be. In the past this type of thing often causes a major reset of patterns so anything is possible after the storms pass.

Hopefully so! About 1,000 miles south.

Make life a bit interesting 

GFS 18z Aaaaaaaaaaaaand it's back on again for my neck of the woods with 100 mph gusts in the small hours on Tuesday night - comparable with the Great Gale of Oct '87.

Still room for adjustments of course but that's cutting it a bit close now. 

It's over a week away. Still plenty of time for adjustments.

At least if it does impact the south, tv news outlets might cover it.

GFS has calm HP to Fri 7th, then gales from Sat for the whole week at first from SW the NW and back to SW again (Meto widespread warning Sat/Sun, probably more to come). Unlike yesterday, the dominant LP stays up to the north until Thursday, and only then developing more local and closer centres, notably on Fri (950mb Rockall) though ECM has this a day earlier. HP back in charge from Mon 17th to end of run on Fri 21st, mostly to the E/SE and bringing up warmth from the south.

GEFS shows cold and wet for week from Sun 9th, good if brief chances for snowfall (a dead cert over the hills, I'd have said) then remarkably mild from 15th (a couple of days later in Scotland)

Jetstream running strongly and directly across the UK from Sun 9th for a full week, then slowly weakening and breaking up into loops by Wed 19th - by then positioned to N of UK but never really going away.

The pptn http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 follows the jet, most of the UK wet at first, then in week 2 restricted to north. The associated temp chart has amazingly widespread positive temp anomalies for N/central Europe in week 1, up to +8C in Scandinavia.

While both ECM & GFS are showing next week's affair a downgrade and put back to Thursday, it could still flip back. Sadly it does mean the whole thing remain as a NAO+ state for as far as the eye can see. Oh well, keeps heating costs down.

i'm not too overly concerned about this weekends winds with 40/45 mph and up to 70 mph gusts as those are not truly exceptional values for this time of year. Most of it will be coming in from the SW so I'll be relatively sheltered by the nearby hilly built up area anyway.

I had to look twice this morning and initially wondered whether something had gone pear shaped with the TWO plots. Remarkable. 

Didn't last February end up record breakingly mild?

Not overall, although it did have the all-time February maximum for the UK, and for England, Wales and Scotland.

Overall it was the 7th warmest, or joint 15th warmest if you go by CET.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/february-and-winter-statistics

By day although nights were quite cold under clear skies

Some bonkers warmth in the later stages of the GFS 12z. 

Today's posts re next week's gales and consequences (e.g. coastal flooding) moved to dedicated thread