Yes agree! Past few days we were looking at potential heatwave end and a major warm up in the FI range but now hopes have been dashed - I wonder what the ECM tomorrow will show

RECENT 18z ENS:

THE 00z ENS:

A week of wild Atlantic weather coming up. Storm Ciara widely forecast (945mb, Norway, Mon) but then there's son and daughter of Ciara to come, either of which could generate further damaging gales, smaller LP centres bu closer (Thu, 970mb, off N Ireland; Sat, 960 mb much the same place). Even the HP which grudgingly settles in by Wed 20th is interrupted by another small LP on Sat 22nd over E Scotland - but at leas the 925mb (sic) low over Labrador on that day doesn't seem to be coming our way.

ECM plays down the successor LPs and leaves out the Sat one entirely, in fact showing the following week's HP in position over W Europe by then.

I don't see any 'proper' wintry weather in these charts, unless you want to settle for NW gales as a consolation prize for a really cold easterly.

ENS - wet in the west, less so in the east, but bits and pieces of rainfall persisting throughout the forecast period (to 23rd), not as dry as suggested yesterday. Mild at first, then cold spell,say 2C below normal, to Wed 13th; thereafter somewhat above normal for 4 or 5 days in the south, else generally close to normal with the usual scatter. The ultra mild forecasts of a day or two back have been jettisoned.

yes your quote from Samuel Pepys seems like the best plan next week...

ECM is broadly in alignment with the GFS to 240 hours, and it's only after in the GFS that there is much of pattern change interest - but it's FI and a flakey FI with little back up from other pertabations. 

needs 850’s a lot lower. -15 would just about cause ice day

-15 850s should easily cause an ice day in mid-Feb.... We had -3c maxes only a few miles inland from the coast here in early March 2018.

Edit: though that was an easterly. A clear skied northerly would be different

I would take this run with a pinch of salt, there seems to be a lack of consistency on general detail.

However, what we have seen over the past few days are GFS runs we would consider more in line with a winter looking run.  By that i mean more of a mix of real cold air, than the occasional slight incursion.

I think the charts are onto something, whether that be an overall pattern change away from the sustained milder weather weve had this winter, or actually, maybe something a bit more wintry severe.  Theres been a host of options apppearing over the past few days.  Mostly centred around LPs running across the UK at various lattitudes with snow on the northern edge.  IF this comes off, the winter will be very polarised for some, with no cold weather or snowfall all winter then 8" overnight one random night.

Hopefully we see the realization of these scenarios soon.  Weve had some dire winters in my time, but this one is up there top 3 at least.

Yes I'm not sure how but the British landscape seems to have an amazing warming effect on any cold air flowing over it. Probably all the chip shops.

GFS just teasing us with a heavy Valentine's day snow event for the south on the 06Z too...

I have a job interview that morning 

Looks like storm round II for post Valentine weekend going by GFS 12z. However that is subject to change given the time frame along with whether ECM go with a similar output in it's 12z output.

Getting this feeling of "what have we done to deserve this?" after such a snow-free winter at this end.   

Update: And indeed, a very different look in ECM with high pressure being nearer to us in from the south  . . . and I'd take that over GFS and hope the latter does follow suit in subsequent runs.

An impressively strong signal here for another unusually strong Euro High development in response to the warm air being thrown across at the upper levels (it stagnates, cools, then sinks down over W. Europe). Potential for more exceptional temperatures - challenging records of which some were set just 2 or 3 days ago.

Then we have this from GFS (left).

Which is different, to say the least!

Even it's own ensembles are markedly different, much more in line with the rest of the deterministic models.

I'm actually a bit baffled as to what's causing the GFS to persistently produce such a different outcome now, having been in line with the other models and ensembles up to the 00z of yesterday. There's an almighty standoff going on between it and the rest of the top-5 best-performing models!

It's reasonable to expect that it's off on one - but given that it has a core that was upgraded only a year ago, I'm not inclined to fully write it off. It'll be one heck of a victory if it's right to keep the Euro High at bay! Stormy UK notwithstanding (much variability from the model with that).

All the years I've been on here and people still look at the 240 charts. It's all alchemy by this time frame.

They certainly demonstrate the difference between accuracy and precision

There is? Don't let the precipitation type charts mislead you, unless you are on top of a hill or on the mountains of Scotland any settling snow is unlikely.

I suppose that with excessive cold in the Arctic and excessive warmth in these latitudes, the two would get together at some point and give us some stormy stuff, but GFS is just a procession.

Sun 9th 945mb Hebrides / Thu 13th 970mb Bailey / Fri 14th 950 mb Rockall (different centre, not a development from Thu) / Sun 16th 950 mb Caithness /Tue 18th 960mb Cairngorm / - brief ridge of HP - / Sat 22nd 945mb Faeroes all with the wind field extending well south and strongly too.

Temps as they say, 'academic' in the strong wind, though thermometers will be below normal around the 12th and (with the usual uncertainty) a couple of degrees above normal for the south after that while Scotland remains close to normal. Rainfall as you might expect mostly in N &W, snowfall apart from a briefly higher probability around the 12th not very likely except in the far north. Wait until the storms have blown themselves out before walking on Cairngorm!

ECM is less brutal and leaves out a separate storm on Fri 14th and indeed has a ridge of HP at that point; but still shows plenty of disturbed weather - Sun 9th, Thu 13th 980mb, Mon 17th 960mb

BBC Reporting Scotland yesterday mentioned the possibility of snow falling at lower levels in some parts of Scotland too during next week, if my ears heard what was said correctly.

amazing really,,,, given its winter and all that 😉

I think even you might start to agree with my expectations from early in the winter that this one has been a write off??