Exactly Beast. I expect that is the case in most countries - if the symptoms are mild, you probably won't think you have the corona virus, so will just rest up as you normally would if you had a winter cold. So actual cases are much greater than known cases.

The reason so many are testing positive on the cruise ship, is because they are doing intensive testing there. The first British guy on the ship to test positive is (or at least was) asymptomatic.

Anybody want to go on a Far East cruise?

"Meanwhile the 2,257 passengers and crew of another cruise ship, the Westerdam, are marooned at sea after being refused landing permission after reports, denied by the ship’s operators, that the coronavirus was on board.

The ship sailed from Hong Kong on February 1, and was denied entry to Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and the US island of Guam. Today Thailand also refused to accept the vessel."

It might last a bit longer than scheduled.

---

That ship is sailing to Cambodia where the cruise will terminate and all passengers disembark. Not too sure why you keep on posting old news

---

Because the news about Cambodia is news to me

I am trying to do my day job at the same time as gossiping here.

---

WHO have confirmed that number of cases in China has stabilised. This is good news but of course it could still accelerate again. Death rate outside of China is only 0.25% so it doesn’t seem as severe as originally thought.

---

By whom? Some of us here have been ridiculed day in and day out for suggesting it is not the end of the world. Obviously it is serious and the attrition and mortality rates aren't yet certain. Flu is serious. However, that doesn't warrant panic and hypecasting and this doesn't either.

---

The virus has reached London. This is a bad development.

I have a feeling it was the case I reported yesterday.

Also, there are reports coming out of China that figures are yet again being under reported. Apparently Beiging hospitals are overwhelmed.

---

 

(reliable) sources  please ......... otherwise it's  hearsay, rumour and scaremongering  !

 

 

---

I’ll need to find the article from the evening standard. But I read it on the way home.

---

0.25% is a lot less than the 2% that many ‘experts, were suggesting 

---

You know the same complacent attitude happened during the spanish flu last century.

Most of these incidents will blow over but eventually one will come along that causes carnage and devastation. Is it this one? Probably not but it is the best candidate in decades. There is every reason to be concerned about this.

Also if this is not contained, and the chances of us losing control of this increase by the day, then there is every possibility it could mutate, flare up, and cause devastation a few months or even years later.

Spanish flu had three waves, the 2nd was more serious than the first. There are encouraging signs that the infection is slowing down in China but that doesn't mean we are in the clear yet.

---

No it isn't.

The mortality rate is not 0.25%, it probably isn't even 2%. You can't just divide the number of deaths by the number of cases to get the mortality rate.

 

---

I am closely monitoring developments in London. I will have to start seriously considering my routine. If this gets a hold in the tube network - which is probably worse than a cruise ship we are not looking at a good situation.

---

what way would you like to calculate then with the information we have?

---

A better way of calculating it is to take the number of deaths/deaths+recoveries.  That ratio then gives you the number of deaths in resolved cases. It will overestimate the rate but converges faster than the crude CFR ratio.

You can also do a CFR but apply a lag, i.e take the number of deaths and then divide by the number of cases n days earlier. n is the amount of time it takes from detection to death. Probably around a week.

 

---

Seems that it was one person that flew from China 2 days ago. You would hope that would limit the time that this could have had to spread.

 

---

Anyone coming back from the far east now really ought to be self isolating so far as possible for at very least a week.

---

Essentially it is too early to have any accurate idea of a mortality rate for the virus. Perhaps in a few months. Anything before then is at best educated guesswork and at worst scaremongering,

---

Is the incubation time known?

My school resembled the plague village of Eyam before Christmas. If this starts to spread I'll be struggling to avoid it.

It's very variable but the great majority have symptoms before 7 days, 14 would be safer - up to 24 days has been mooted but that's less realistic and could even have been another infection acquired after initial period.

---

It would have to seriously increase in impact for me to change my routine but I don't see that happening.

---

I've been in to London today, and am going tomorrow as well. On the grounds that I regularly seem to pick up colds after winter work trips to London, I've decided to give the Santander Bikes a go. Feeling quite smug that I've cycled 8 miles today (4 miles in each direction between Waterloo and my customer on the Kings Road in Chelsea), and it took less time than my usual route (2 tube trains and a 15 minute walk). It's cheaper too. 

---

I've been following David Abel's videos on Facebook (British guy on the Diamond Princess who regularly does live videos). Despite all the extra cases coming to light, quarantine still ends next Wednesday 19th. As everyone has been in isolation since the 5th, this means that anyone who is tested just before the end of quarantine, and is negative, can leave.

You may also not be aware that the Japanese Health Authorities have only tested about 400 of the 3,700 people on board; they've only been testing those with known contact with those already infected, or with symptoms. Everyone on board has been given a digital thermometer, been told to take their temperature 4 times a day and to call an emergency number if it is above a threshold value.

---

14000 new cases today

Around 7x the number yesterday.

Such a insane spike in the number of cases must be due to a change in methodology surely?

 

EDIT: It is. Figure includes clinical and lab now.

---

Basically this means we won't be able to establish any sort of trends for the next few days.

---