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Ally Pally Snowman
13 February 2020 00:29:21


14000 new cases today


Around 7x the number yesterday.


Such a insane spike in the number of cases must be due to a change in methodology surely?


 


EDIT: It is. Figure includes clinical and lab now.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Finally some realistic numbers from China. Its been obvious that they've been under reporting them for awhile now. Big jump in deaths as well up 242. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
13 February 2020 00:32:11


 


 


Finally some realistic numbers from China. Its been obvious that they've been under reporting them for awhile now. Big jump in deaths as well up 242. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It's going to cause alot of confusion though. The report leaves it ambiguous as to whether the deaths are accumulated since the outbreak or just occured today under the new methodology.


Anyway if we are dealing with a backlog the numbers should return to normal tommorow at 3k cases and 100 deaths. From then we will need several more days to determine any trend.


If that doesn't happen then it would imply the old methodology didn't just get the absolute numbers wrong but also the behaviour of the disease. In which case, we might have to forget everything we thought we knew about this.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Zubzero
13 February 2020 01:06:56
3000+ people die every day across the world from road traffic accidents. Yet no one gives a second thought when getting in their car to go to work, shopping ect. But act like a zombie apocalypse is unfolding over a flu virus.
Devonian
13 February 2020 07:11:35

3000+ people die every day across the world from road traffic accidents. Yet no one gives a second thought when getting in their car to go to work, shopping ect. But act like a zombie apocalypse is unfolding over a flu virus.

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Devonian
13 February 2020 07:28:20

In addition to car accidents globally, in the UK alone:


In 2016 61,000 people died of dementia.


Between 2015 and 2017 about 165 000 people died of cancer each year


I could find more stats if I had the time.


 


But, no, ~250 people dying, world wide,  of a novel virus captures people's attention...


 

Roger Parsons
13 February 2020 07:31:32

3000+ people die every day across the world from road traffic accidents. Yet no one gives a second thought when getting in their car to go to work, shopping ect. But act like a zombie apocalypse is unfolding over a flu virus.

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Good to keep a sense of proportion, Zz, but it's the unknown territory of a new infective agent that spooks people. The deep seated fear of unfathomable epidemics is embedded in our history - even in our nursery rhymes.


R Emoji

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
nsrobins
13 February 2020 07:34:50
At the very least the whole Covid19 episode thus far has been a fascinating pastiche on the reaction of a society to a potential pandemic - if it indeed develops into one.
From media hype to bigotry to economic kneejerking and down to censorship of the truth on a national scale.
I wonder sometimes how much of a ‘civilised’ society we’re supposed to be.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
13 February 2020 07:46:56

Indeed. One man's scaremongering is another man's complacency. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
speckledjim
13 February 2020 07:56:18

At the very least the whole Covid19 episode thus far has been a fascinating pastiche on the reaction of a society to a potential pandemic - if it indeed develops into one.
From media hype to bigotry to economic kneejerking and down to censorship of the truth on a national scale.
I wonder sometimes how much of a ‘civilised’ society we’re supposed to be.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


I do find it fascinating how different people react.....interesting times ahead

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Roger Parsons
13 February 2020 08:06:28


I do find it fascinating how different people react.....interesting times ahead


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Isn't that the legendary Chinese curse, SJ? Perhaps not. Wiki says:


"May you live in interesting times" is an English expression which purports to be a translation of a traditional Chinese curse. While seemingly a blessing, the expression is normally used ironically; life is better in "uninteresting times" of peace and tranquility than in "interesting" ones, which are usually times of trouble. Despite being so common in English as to be known as the "Chinese curse", the saying is apocryphal, and no actual Chinese source has ever been produced.


R.

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
speckledjim
13 February 2020 08:08:40


 


Isn't that the legendary Chinese curse, SJ? Perhaps not. Wiki says:


"May you live in interesting times" is an English expression which purports to be a translation of a traditional Chinese curse. While seemingly a blessing, the expression is normally used ironically; life is better in "uninteresting times" of peace and tranquility than in "interesting" ones, which are usually times of trouble. Despite being so common in English as to be known as the "Chinese curse", the saying is apocryphal, and no actual Chinese source has ever been produced.


R.


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


No, not at all 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Maunder Minimum
13 February 2020 08:11:53

At the very least the whole Covid19 episode thus far has been a fascinating pastiche on the reaction of a society to a potential pandemic - if it indeed develops into one.
From media hype to bigotry to economic kneejerking and down to censorship of the truth on a national scale.
I wonder sometimes how much of a ‘civilised’ society we’re supposed to be.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Civilisation is but a veneer over our feral nature. It soon peels off under stress.

New world order coming.
KevBrads1
13 February 2020 08:15:24

3000+ people die every day across the world from road traffic accidents. Yet no one gives a second thought when getting in their car to go to work, shopping ect. But act like a zombie apocalypse is unfolding over a flu virus.

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Interesting you say this and you make a very great point. 


However consider this, we had commerations for the centenary of WWI and quite rightly so but where we the commerations for those who died of the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19, where estimations have 50 million dying of this virus, far more than died in WWI? 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
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Maunder Minimum
13 February 2020 08:31:46

Latest news out of China:


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51482994


The thing that puzzles me, is why the virus symptoms appear more acute at the epicentre than elsewhere.


 

New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
13 February 2020 08:38:09

3000+ people die every day across the world from road traffic accidents. Yet no one gives a second thought when getting in their car to go to work, shopping ect. But act like a zombie apocalypse is unfolding over a flu virus.

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


I do. Driving can be like playing the lottery. A few weeks ago I was driving up the M1 and a car in the middle lane swerved out right in front of me. The driver had fallen asleep and we only just avoided a collision. You minimise the risks but are fully aware that your number could be up at any point. 


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
13 February 2020 10:01:06

3000+ people die every day across the world from road traffic accidents. Yet no one gives a second thought when getting in their car to go to work, shopping ect. But act like a zombie apocalypse is unfolding over a flu virus.

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Because road traffic accidents don't have the potential to spread out of control without any reasonable way of stopping them.


There is no reason that this incident can't become the spanish flu, if it doesn't it's just good luck. The complacency about this is ridiculous.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
13 February 2020 10:03:35


 


Because road traffic accidents don't have the potential to spread out of control without any reasonable way of stopping them.


There is no reason that this incident can't become the spanish flu, if it doesn't it's just good luck. The complacency about this is ridiculous.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


To be fair I doubt even Brexitiers like you can blame the Spanish for this virus.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
13 February 2020 10:19:36


 


To be fair I doubt even Brexitiers like you can blame the Spanish for this virus.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Do you know why it was called 'Spanish Flu'?


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
13 February 2020 10:26:29


 


 


Do you know why it was called 'Spanish Flu'?


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Didn't TBH. I had to look it up.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 February 2020 10:34:01


 


 


Do you know why it was called 'Spanish Flu'?


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


WW1 censorship - none of the combatants wanted to publicise that their soldiers were falling ill in droves. It got reported in Spain which was neutral and additionally King Alfonso fell ill with it, so the tag of 'Spanish' got attached. Probably from a mid-west US pig farm near an army base, but revisionists ascribe it to a case amongst Chinese labourers brought in to support the army.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Saint Snow
13 February 2020 10:35:35


 


WW1 censorship - none of the combatants wanted to publicise that their soldiers were falling ill in droves. It got reported in Spain which was neutral and additionally King Alfonso fell ill with it, so the tag of 'Spanish' got attached. Probably from a mid-west US pig farm near an army base, but revisionists ascribe it to a case amongst Chinese labourers brought in to support the army.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


 



You get my Gold Star today 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
speckledjim
13 February 2020 10:46:37


 


Because road traffic accidents don't have the potential to spread out of control without any reasonable way of stopping them.


There is no reason that this incident can't become the spanish flu, if it doesn't it's just good luck. The complacency about this is ridiculous.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Should we all cancel our social engagements and self isolate?

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gandalf The White
13 February 2020 10:58:25


 


Because road traffic accidents don't have the potential to spread out of control without any reasonable way of stopping them.


There is no reason that this incident can't become the spanish flu, if it doesn't it's just good luck. The complacency about this is ridiculous.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


A moment’s thought about the background to the Spanish Flu pandemic should provide you with several good reasons that it won’t be similar. Plus advances in medicine and pharmaceuticals over a century.


The only negatives are the much greater global population and greater mobility. 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
13 February 2020 13:08:06
Best guess at the moment using China's declared figures is that for every 100 cases, 15 will be so serious that they will need a period in hospital if not intensive care, and 2 in 100 will likely die.
It's had to see how that can be dealt with properly if 20% get infected eventually which was the approximate figure worldwide for Swine Flu.
The infectivity seems exceptionally high which could make logistics even more difficult due to an exponential rise once it's established especially if next to no effort is made to isolate anyone who has been in a high risk situation like flying back from the Far East
North York Moors weather 
Gandalf The White
13 February 2020 13:12:44

Best guess at the moment using China's declared figures is that for every 100 cases, 15 will be so serious that they will need a period in hospital if not intensive care, and 2 in 100 will likely die.
It's had to see how that can be dealt with properly if 20% get infected eventually which was the approximate figure worldwide for Swine Flu.
The infectivity seems exceptionally high which could make logistics even more difficult due to an exponential rise once it's established especially if next to no effort is made to isolate anyone who has been in a high risk situation like flying back from the Far East

Originally Posted by: four 


I noticed you made an identical comment recently.


I’ve just returned from Singapore, which I assume you categorise as ‘Far East’: a county with around 50 cases out of 5.5 million people.  With respect that is in no way ‘high risk’.  On that logic we should be isolating Brighton.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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