Concerning? Auto correct strikes again!

Anyway, countrywide gales Sat through Mon from a 930mb centre south of Iceland, with MetO warning for that and heavy rain as well throughout the weekend, 06Z more from the SW rather than the above link which has the centre further S and the winds also from the S. 

Eventually it moves away and HP is in place fro Wed 19th over S England, up to 1035 mb by Sun 23rd (re-instated from 2 days ago so I wouldn't put too much money on it). Retrogresses by Tue 25th allowing a northerly flow but that looks a bit like the usual GFS tease, gales running down the H Sea which will be shifted over to Denmark when the time comes. HP back by Fri 28th.

ECM similar but HP is weaker

GEFS Wet and mild to Mon 17th, cool and dry to Thu 20th, mild and dry to 25th, after that the control goes very mild and the op goes very cold. Scotland has more variation in temp after the 20th.

Ha, yes. When using a mobile my fat fingers come into play.

I didn’t have a chance to look at the postage stamps this morning. Did the op have much support?

Its plausible Darren. High-res will play with this for a while yet trying to get the phasing right with the core of the jet riding NNE above SE UK on Sun evening. Get the baroclinic ripple to squeeze out of the left exit zone and boom. 
It’s likely to present various options until Saturday - one of which could be the bomb we’re seeing this morning.

Aw, I had a vision of a mass jam-making event in the South East as a distraction from the storm.

Arpege has some pretty high rain totals by the end of the weekend - 100mm over Hampshire, and over 150mm in Dartmoor and parts of Wales. Hence the amber warnings issued this morning.

amber warnings are very localised i see now

That map shows why I much prefer a SW'ly to a W'ly flow 

I guess one positive about this location is that we don't get the rain in these setups (not just the snow!)

Fingers cross the rain shadow works to our benefit this time Saint.

I want to get out and about this weekend, there a chance we might just get a bit of rain.  Being in so many weather warnings seemingly since last september for heavy rain, Im glad we have a chance of missing this one out

I was unable to get out on my bike last weekend due to an operation and looks like this weekend will be a washout too. Roll on spring

Tonight's GFS thinks we will never grow tired of it crying wolf, because the double tease of this morning was another outlier - yes jack-in-the-box clown face - popping up again to say - ha-ha - had you there, Outlier!!! Ya-boo, I got you!!
Yawn-yawn!! Boring, boring zonal...

'Special'... hmmm.....

Not exactly been great has it, Steve?

Winter 2019/20...AKA 'The Special One' 

LOL....rather hysterically....

I got a call from my son saying that he was in Hunstanton - on Tuesday and it was a total blizzard, settling too. He sent me a photo. When I got home - my house had been a mile inside the very edge of it, and it had just clipped us, leaving a slushy white scattering, whereas he had witnessed a couple of cms. This vicarious snow event does in fact beat the sum total of 1989 down here, but not by much. Actually I remember that year - we didn't even get a frost. So since the planet has warmed 0.4 degrees since then, I guess I should count my lucky stars that I have had snow falling (although unseen by me) and a few frosts to boot!

It doesn't seem possible - but it has been even more dire than this, at least once.

Storm Dennis gathering strength off Greenland (920 mb on FAX though see Q's thread) before launching itself across the Northern Isles (950mb Sun night). Besides general wind damage the trailing fronts in the south look set to deliver a lot of rain (see FAX again). After that things quieten down with brisk westerlies slowly abating as HP tries to push in from the south, more or less successfully, throughout the week beginning Sun 23 Feb though the W-ly tendency never really goes away. Sat 29th sees another storm brewing up near Iceland.

ECM in general agreement with above GFS though the HP is weaker,

GEFS as yesterday, wet and mild to 17th, then drier especially in the S; a cool period to 20th followed by a lot of variability, tendency for a mild spell at first but mean temps revert to close to average. 

Even if we had a Beast from the East now it would be a mewling kitten - all of eastern Europe is well above average temps http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Sadly special for all the wrong reasons-

One last little window in the very last closing days of winter....

What a shocker!

I'm still hoping this winter will be on the 10 mildest ever recorded. I've been saying it consistently since early December and hope we don't fall at the final hurdle. 

This winter is really going to mess with the stats that were showing correlations between solar minima and negative AO. I’m sure the relationship is still there but this year is a big exception. 

Currently zero sunspots and already 28 spotless days in 2020.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity