We might be (mostly) amateurs, but some are more amateur than others.

😉

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Could be a white Thursday morning in the Chilterns. The model output is now quite consistent and even Arpege which is usually quite realistic shows the likelihood of snow. 

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The pattern of Atlantic depressions running across the UK does not let up for the foreseeable future - even the HP seen in FI in previous runs has gone. Enough cold PM air being dragged in after each LP to offer snow on hils and perhaps transiently at low levels. Watch out for depressions on the following though no doubt timing will vary: Thu 27th 990mb Channel; Sun 1st 960mb Western Isles; Thu 5th 970 mb S Scotland; Sun 7th 990 mb SW approaches; Tue 10th 990 mb Bristol Channel; Thu 12th 965 mb Fair Isle. 

ECM similar but Thu 27th a weaker feature and Sun 1st further north

Ensembles show mean temp a degree or so below seasonal norm (brief mildness on 29th), minimal chance of snow on the South Coast, pretty well a certainty in Inverness; rain on and off throughout, heaviest in the south.

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Phone app now has a snowflake symbol for Thursday here but looking at the model output I think I’m a bit too far south to see anything. Maybe some sleet to spoil the snow-free winter at the last gasp!

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Just hope ICON is overcooking the wind speeds associated with a small but active runner low for Saturday morning as other models are showing more toned down versions associated with a passing cold front.

This is the gust forecast by ICON . . . 

  

Should this actually turn out to verify nearer to the moment then I think this would be of more concern than a few minutes of transient snow. 

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This is of course true. There are a lot of self proclaimed experts out there hence the outlandish "Express" type headlines. Joe ******i, (asterisks not inserted by me !!) Corbyn's brother, Madden etc. They obviously don't have the resources or collective brain and computer power of the National forecasting agencies who will always be more reliable. However they don't tend to speculate past a week ahead (probably because they know it's mainly rubbish) whereas we can if we want to. And we have fun trying to second guess them and are possibly quite good at a local level because they don't have the time to spend on IMBY stuff.

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Arpege has pushed Thursday's snow risk way to the north compared to previous runs. The low now tracks across to East Anglia with the 0C isotherm around Suffolk. Other models have it a bit further south.

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And in turn would bring more unwanted strong westerly winds to Kent. 

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Id settle for that IMBY

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Finally maybe just maybe winter might just turn up. Fingers crossed Gooner!

 

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Yuk with what will still be cold rain crap here at the South coast of England, but looking further ahead still, that's better with the FI part of the 12z GFS output, I would bank that. Doubtless it'll be gone in the 18z but it has cheered me up on this dull damp cold late afternoon. 

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Lots more sunshine to come here if the westerlies continue. We are in triple figures in terms of sunshine hours for the month now and if we cannot get snow that will do nicely.

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The overall picture http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 is notable for the continuing above average temps in central/eastern Europe and in the associated pptn chart, above average rainfall in W Europe incl UK (gets a little better in week 2).

GFS continues the string of LPs off the Atlantic - will just mention 955mb N Scotland Sun 1st and 980 mb E Anglia Sun 8th but there are others. This model has reinstated the ridge of HP Spain - Scandi now shown on Thu 12th but its existence is in doubt as it has been appearing in and disappearing from subsequent charts, and the date of its establishment gets delayed ... and delayed.

ECM is similar but LP on Sun 8th weaker(and a day earlier) - and a much deeper Atlantic depression off Labrador on that date.

ENS as yesterday; bump of mild and wet on 29th Feb, thereafter cool and wet, the rain especially persistent in the south - and with a remarkable leap in temps 11 Mar shown on the control run but only one or two runs.

 

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Well GFS 6z has shunted the snow further North ……….not good for MBY

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Ignore that , wrong day 

 

Tramadol kicking in 

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I'm not sure what others think of the above chart but since my last post in this thread, it looks as though the wet weather at the very end of this month in this part of the world has been delayed by a day or so (that is shown not to be happening until 29 February). Beyond that, there are still some rainfall spikes around but it doesn't look to me as though our outlook is unsettled as it was looking the last time I posted here, especially once we get past 2/3 March.

This shows that the outlook for this part of the world might not end up being as unsettled after all, as what it would appear to be going by others are saying. What hasn't changed though is that with the exception of a brief warmer spell at the very end of the month going into March, the outlook for here is still quite cold until we get to around the middle of the second week of March.

The GFS operational has it warming up quite a lot here around 10 March and although that is only really an outlier, the general trend does appear to be a bit warmer as we approach the middle of the month although for now, this is still only in the unreliable time frame.

 

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The above Marcus is a different system and is for Friday? The system tomorrow will still produce snow INBY.

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This is more like it for you!? - But could be heavy wet snow with little or no accumulations. Again nice to be reminded where the M4 is - haven't seen it at all this winter! ha.

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GFS 6z looking very stormy.

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Sadly, it seems that the ICON chart I showed the other day is being on the money.

Next week is also looking changeable where I'm having to wait until the second week of March before I can think about hoping for more in the way of settled conditions - probably only for that to be snatched away from us.

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GFS 6Z in FI is showing a Scandi high and an easterly. Long time since I've seen that! Hints of a pattern change or just a random outlier? In any case, I doubt there'd be too much cold air coming our way .....

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I fully expect this kind of pattern change and it would not be a surprise in the slightest for March to be a cold month.

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Yeh, the charts have hinted at this for the past few days into FI. Seems like we go from a very direct and organised Jetstream to a wandering one, with alot of residual systems left in limbo. Looks like we are hopefully coming to the end of what has been one of the worst wet periods Ive ever known.

I was looking at some weatehr stations in mid wales, who have had over 450mm of rain this month. 3 times their monthly average.

There hasnt really been much let up since September/october. which is quite astonishing.

As the continental landmass starts to warm up, we usually see the European monsoon kick in, and air rushing out from European high pressures. ID say this usually brings cold weather, but the continent is relatively warm or rather not very cold. Therefor we could be heading for a decent spring, rather than a very cold one. If we get onto a warm and very dry breeze from the east, it could bethe antidote to the very very wet ground we are currently surrounded by..

we live in hope.

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Whether it does turn cold or it remains mild, I think all that most of us here will be wanting after all that has happened is for March to be a mostly dry month.

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Saturday continues to look potentially nasty as a powerful system rattles through.

Gusts 80 mph over the SW as it smashes in.

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