I am not sure I agree with allowing sporting events to go ahead, but I agree completely with keeping schools open, having read some expert opinion on this. Closing schools would do more harm than good it appears, but parents need to be fastidious about hand washing etc, especially when they get home with their children and start preparing food.

I am surprised that football matches etc are still allowed to go ahead - it is not being at the game itself which is the primary issue, but the close proximity in travel to matches and the after match pub.

To avoid the Italian crisis, we don't want the NHS bombed with too many cases all at once.

What idiots!  Sensationalist nonsense. 

But that’s the problem: there’s always another supposed expert out there prepared to give an opinion and media outlets needing a sensational headline.

I wonder if some parents will take matters into their own hands as panic sets in. Anyone able to confirm the situation on the ground?

 So be a man and reinstate your flight to Copenhagen. I've done 4 flights in the last week and I detest them at the best of times. 

Around here parents have been doing that for several days. 

As I said, scaled up for population size Singapore is seeing the equivalent of around 200 cases a day (UK 65m, Singapore 5.7m). A graph that just shows cases is meaningless.

And Japan?

I also had a call from my DN yesterday, reiterating this. Mind you, good control is what we should be aiming for anyway at all times.  I shall test a little more often (my poor fingers ), washing hands is second nature having worked in health areas for many years. Living in Norfolk, we are pretty isolated here so it may be a little easier to keep myself to myself. Hubby worked for Highways England, and although he can do some work from home, not all obviously, there has been no suggestion to do so. They do have their vehicles cleaned every 3 hours tho. At least he is taking it a little more seriously now since seeing PM statement last night. 

I had to go daughters school yesterday evening to talk about GCSE subjects. Of course the Covid subject came up.

One teacher had heard next Wednesday is closure day another Friday, all with an extended Easter holiday.

One teacher with mathematical modelling skills said the Govt is probably correct in putting off closure time but he thinks they have to get it right and will have no more than a 24 hour slot to bring it in to achieve the best results with minimal impact on NHS.

It’s the TIMING though that seemed the general consensus last night.

Otherwise the NHS could be bombed into submission which is not in anyone's interests in the UK.

Just heard the F1 has been after all.  

I am not going to take unnecessary risks and besides, there is no point. Denmark is completely closed down, including the office I normally work at - all staff have been sent home to work remotely if they can. Glad I cancelled my flight back in January, since it would have been pointless now in any case. Like Quantum, I was ahead of the curve

Has been what? Called off? that was done yesterday.

Apologies, you are correct about Singapore but not Japan.

For the last 10 days (earliest first) the figures are:

Singapore: 16%, 14%, 13%, 12%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 9%, 5%, 6%

Japan - 6%, 6%, 12%, 10%, 17%, 12%, 7%, 5%, 11%, 9%

Just read it has been called off. Not sure what took so long. 

So far nothing at my daughters schools. All my friends are continuing to send them in and have zero intention of keeping them off. 

I would say that being an island has helped.

Look at our early cases - middle and upper class people who fly places, especially on skiing holidays in the Alps.

So it is not widespread in the working classes, unlike in those countries with a land border.

My daughter is an independent adult. If she was still at school I think we would be keeping her at home now. However, Berkhamsted / Herts is a hotspot and perhaps we are a week or so ahead of many other parts of the UK.

What does it say on the graph?

Thanks, Jim 

The strategy: slow spread to give NHS time to prepare/push out peak to summer (10-14 wks time), while allowing enough transmission that population develops herd immunity. Hope is this avoids second peak in critical winter months (govt action plans talks of ‘second wave’ risk) https://t.co/7TY7lLZKiI

— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) March 13, 2020

I'm not sure what the entire population of the UK is according to the last census. However, the fact that, as you say, we are an island and there are fewer people living here overall compared to some of the other countries affected might just spare us the worst of this.

Vallance reckons 60% will be enough for "herd immunity". That obviously raises a number of questions and also suggests "selfish" behaviour could be very advantageous. On the plus side it reduces my UK death count to between 300,000 to 600,000 at a guess.  

I don’t think closing schools makes any difference. If you take Singapore and Japan as examples as they are weeks ahead of any country in Europe then the evidence is not there. Singapore did not close their schools and the daily rate of increase has dropped and they are managing it well. On the other hand Japanese schools have been closed for 2 weeks and there has been no improvement. We obviously need a lot more data to be sure one way or the other but I’m certainly not convinced at the moment.

I agree with all this, but it's normal to question why our curve flattening strategy is so different than most other countries. Some of them also have top notch experts.