UK measures not popular with scientists apparently.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-surprised-scientists-warn-uks-measures-dont-go-far-enough-11956731 

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It's as obvious as night follows day that the football season will not complete. The administrators may as well finish it now.

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premiership is bound to be suspended today and I doubt v much if it will be completed as other clubs are bound to have players/staff that come down with the virus

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My dad passed away last July at the age of 84. He was in sheltered accommodation 340 miles away from us in Derbyshire. He had carers coming in four times a day to help him due to his poor eye sight. 
I am glad he is not with us at this present time. Due to the scattering of many families in our modern times it is hard to look after them when they get old. I spent all my holiday time going up to see him and care for him but we had to rely on help from others most of the time. 
It is sad to think that the elderly are being sacrificed in what appears to be a blatant act by the government in order to keep the shareholders happy, this done under the guise of herd immunity.

 

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As far as I can see, the Government's strategy (and I think they're right) is that Covid flu is so transmissible that it will become endemic worldwide. like seasonal flu or measles, and unlike Ebola, cannot be contained. It's also a lot less deadly than Ebola! and the latest figures from China suggest that there were a great many more unreconised cases or that a lot of peopel shrugged it off as symptomless. 

The measures announced are intended to lower us slowly into this unavoidable(?) pool of infection to a stable position over, say, 6 months, while countries like Taiwan will stay free until they have subsequent outbreaks and then have to keep renewing their travel and assembly bans at intervals over a period of years.

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Yes but won't the virus mutate to a new strain each year,like the flu? The proper way to achieve herd immunisation is via a vaccination program.  Not by intentionally letting everyone catch it.

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Also, the controls that Singapore and Japan have put in place have not slowed the virus down, it is still growing at similar rates in those countries. 

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Agreed. Horrible strategy for people with elderly loved ones

 

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Humm:

 

What is the problem? A virus that will cause enough serious illness that the NHS will be overwhelmed unless the rate of infected is kept low enough to prevent that...

What is the best I can do as an individual? Play my part in slowing the spread of the virus, self isolate.

What should govt do? The same. Is it? Er, there is clearly more it could do and I begin to think political ideology is playing a part in it's policy.

 

Will the virus mutate annually to a new strain like the flu (each requiring a new vaccine to be developed annually)? The evidence, is for blatantly obvious reasons, very limited. We simply do not know but from a brief bit if research early suggestions means it may not.

What baffles me is not that there are some scientists who disagree with the timing and extent of measures in this country, that is normal. To think that we know better than the CSO or CMO is almost laughable if it weren’t so frustrating. They are not acting from political motivation rather based on a lifetime of professional experience, research and collaboration with many many scientists and medical professionals.

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If it mutates substantially; note that it hasn't been found necessary to organise mass vaccination for seasonal flu, just selected at risk groups

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I'm an elderly loved one (well, elderly at any rate - I hate the phrase) and IMO the spread is unavoidable whatever measures are taken so delay is the correct strategy and then if I or my wife do get it seriously, there will be resources enough to help us

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Coronavirus: UK's approach 'concerning', says Jeremy Hunt

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51865915

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Clearly, Hunt is not a gambler.

I am in two minds about this. My preferred strategy would have been the one adopted by countries like Taiwan - close and monitor borders to keep it out. But far too late for that now, so since we are where we are, let's try life as normal for as long as possible - the strategy will only collapse if the NHS is overwhelmed and too many start to die. If we can smooth the peak and get through the next 2 months, then fine.

 

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For the first time, my commute to work is noticeably quieter this morning. Much quieter.

The working from home guidance is kicking in, despite the lack of official push from the Government.

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If some of the research from the Diamond Princess is true there could be a very high proportion of asymptomatic people let alone mild. Some comfort. ( but have those people been followed up on now though? )

Certainly the number of footballers and celebrities with it suggests it's more widespread.

Respiratory wards at St James Hospital Leeds were being cleared yesterday with people being discharged but nobody was coming in with Coronavirus yet. Perhaps it is certain parts of the country and London in general though at the moment.

My tactic would be to isolate the 10% most vulnerable and let the rest of us try and develop a community herd immunity but also try and slow spread generally. It is inevitable that it will spread widely anyway now.

Even if you isolated a country in good time E.g Taiwan how long can you keep that up for , eventually a mistake will be made or you will have to relax measures to avoid social and economic destruction .

No easy answers at all.

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The main problem for me with the UK approach is that no one else is taking it. This means that if other countries pass their peak earlier and cases are reduced, they can reopen to everyone except for the UK, who will be an outcast regardless of whether the approach was correct. UK government seems to be banking that it will be impossible to control the reintroduction of the virus from unknown sources once restrictions are lifted

Regarding footballers, celebs, politicians getting it now - don't forget that the epicentre was Milan. In northern Europe this is currently a rich man's disease - those who could afford to go on a ski holiday in the Italian Alps at half term like the surgeon in Liverpool.

Perhaps that is why the problem is not as widespread here as in those countries with a land border to contend with.

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There are 7 cases in Leeds but no idea if any of them are hospitalised

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I agree it is a very difficult decision and people will have different views. However, I am concerned that some of the reports now appearing on the BBC have an element of "Germany calling" to them. I sincerely hope this is not the case.

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I can understand your thinking, DEW. We have been reflecting on that too and we came up with some dilemmas. If we get Covid-19,  badly - as oldies and sickies can do, do we try to survive upstairs or camp out downstairs? If up - what will we need to put in place now? Water. Food - but what food will we want? Medication. You know the questions... Downstairs we would sacrifice comfortable beds for put-you-ups. There is no shower. We can at least get to the door if necessary. The thought of negotating our antique staircase is a bit concerning. I don't fancy a fall!

What worries me is if one of us gets seriously ill and is taken away, leaving the other to fester alone and unable to visit! That is not a good thought.

Did you know that diabetics have been recommended to be more careful about their blood testing? Diabetes UK writes:

Your guide to the coronavirus – should I be worried?

https://www.diabetes.co.uk/your-guide-to-the-coronavirus-should-i-be-worried/

 

KBO!

Roger

 

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Given that there’s growing evidence, judging from the spread, that many people are asymptomatic or have a mild illness I think borders would have to have been closed back in mid-January. 

It’s not fully under control anywhere, so it is now widely in circulation. I’m sure we’ll see an increase in cases in China as soon as they try to return towards normality.  Singapore is seeing a steady rise, equivalent to 200+ cases per day in the UK.

But if the virus has so little impact on so many then the herd protection coupled with measures to protect the vulnerable ought to create far less chaos than sone are fearing.  I have to think that’s what the scientific advice is saying. 

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I see sky news helping to draw up panic with this misconstrued quote..



Absolute nonsense!!

The guy in the clip was actually talking of its ability to speed compared to Ebola, but lets face it most wouldn't bother to watch the clip. 

 

Not a nice thought to contemplate, Roger.

There is a half-way house if necessary: one upstairs and one down, as you’re unlikely to fall ill at the same time and to the same degree.  Not ideal - and of course you can swap if sleeping on the sofa is a problem.

I’m banking on most cases being mild because there’s no point in worrying about it as it’s not fully under our control. Sensible measures - as are being recommended: social distancing and lots of hand washing.

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Not true

 

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