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Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 00:34:02


 


No, but if the vector of the virus stays in one place, the virus is contained in that place too.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


You can’t keep it in one place unless you stop people moving around.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
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xioni2
14 March 2020 01:00:24


 At the end of the day it is for the government to make the call and it should be based on the advice it is given. However, if things go badly wrong (e.g. more than 100,000 deaths) they need to be held accountable. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Agreed and even tens of thousand of deaths would be a big failure IMO.

xioni2
14 March 2020 01:01:25


 You are trying to achieve something that is not achievable.


You still seem to think that there's a route out of this that does not involve the majority of any county's population not getting this virus. You also seem to think there's something that could have been done before now that could have prevented that.


 

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Two problems with this:



  • even if you accept that every country will eventually achieve herd immunity, the time that this could take matters a lot. Thursday's messaging from HMG sounded like we could do this in the next few months in order to avoid a 2nd peak next winter. This is quite different from a country achieving herd immunity over several years with a relatively steady and mostly controlled number of critical cases

  • we don't know if every country will eventually achieve herd immunity. The WHO has said that this virus is unique in being highly contagious and at the same being possible (so far!) to almost stop it (slow it significantly) in several countries.


Look at Singapore or Hong Kong: they are both very densely populated, they had a relatively high number of infections early on and yet they have reduced the spread significantly to a very slow drip. They didn't even close their borders, they used social distancing, meticulous testing and contact tracing and the majority of the workforce worked from home for a time.


Communication to the public has been excellent too. for example in Singapore, publicly available charts and maps details patients' ages, nationalities, length of hospitalisation, where they live, their connections to one another etc. Contrast this to our approach, where the govt even said yesterday that we'll only be testing the seriously ill in hospitals. The WHO keeps saying that every country should track and test every case!


You could argue that it's all hopeless and one day it will spread all over Singapore, but I am not sure at all. I would keep an open mind about what our govt and (some of?) our scientists are saying. Yes, we have great scientists and experts, but they won't always be right and several other countries have great experts too. We don't even know if our approach is entirely based on science, there is no proper transparency.


We could be sleepwalking into a major disaster and this is not Brexit, it would cost many lives.

Roger Parsons
14 March 2020 05:51:32


No, but if the vector of the virus stays in one place, the virus is contained in that place too.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


I am interested in your definition of "vector", CC. It usually has a specific meaning in epidemiology - a "third party species" or other mechanism responsible for the transmission of an "agent" that infects a "host". Like a mosquito in the transmission of malaria to humans. Another relevant concept is that of a "reservoir", which is an alternative host species - the "reservoir host" in which the agent can survive. This was something that was raised as a possibility issue in the early stages of this pandemic but that question has gone quiet.


Of course a "super spreader" could loosely be termed a vector, but in that looser sense every infected person who infects another would count as a vector. The reason to be clear on this is we are still learning about the transmission of Covid-19 and may yet turn up other potential hosts - pigs or domestic species for example - or true "vector species" we have not yet considered - perish the thought.


The word "herd" is being used in our discussions, and it has a certain charm - not least because our local GPs use the expression "Vaccinate the whole herd" when doing the 'flu vaccinations!


Roger


 


 

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 06:13:59

4 cases known out of population of 858,000 in West Sussex. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 to check your own area


This isn't helping me to be worried!


 


ADDED: I've now looked further back in the thread. There will be deaths, and the Government can't win as unless the number of deaths is incredibly low, below, say, 1000, they will get blamed even if there is an argument that their actions prevented a much higher total.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
14 March 2020 06:34:09


 


Two problems with this:



  • even if you accept that every country will eventually achieve herd immunity, the time that this could take matters a lot. Thursday's messaging from HMG sounded like we could do this in the next few months in order to avoid a 2nd peak next winter. This is quite different from a country achieving herd immunity over several years with a relatively steady and mostly controlled number of critical cases

  • we don't know if every country will eventually achieve herd immunity. The WHO has said that this virus is unique in being highly contagious and at the same being possible (so far!) to almost stop it (slow it significantly) in several countries.


Look at Singapore or Hong Kong: they are both very densely populated, they had a relatively high number of infections early on and yet they have reduced the spread significantly to a very slow drip. They didn't even close their borders, they used social distancing, meticulous testing and contact tracing and the majority of the workforce worked from home for a time.


Communication to the public has been excellent too. for example in Singapore, publicly available charts and maps details patients' ages, nationalities, length of hospitalisation, where they live, their connections to one another etc. Contrast this to our approach, where the govt even said yesterday that we'll only be testing the seriously ill in hospitals. The WHO keeps saying that every country should track and test every case!


You could argue that it's all hopeless and one day it will spread all over Singapore, but I am not sure at all. I would keep an open mind about what our govt and (some of?) our scientists are saying. Yes, we have great scientists and experts, but they won't always be right and several other countries have great experts too. We don't even know if our approach is entirely based on science, there is no proper transparency.


We could be sleepwalking into a major disaster and this is not Brexit, it would cost many lives.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 Absolutely right.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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KevBrads1
14 March 2020 06:44:20

We are the most advanced life form that has ever existed on this planet but how quick we are brought to our knees by something so tiny and seemingly powerless to stop.
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 06:55:09


No, but if the vector of the virus stays in one place, the virus is contained in that place too.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

That’s right!  I’m assuming you mean patient zero who will have already been infected before showing symptoms, so the ‘vector’ didn’t stay in one place and the virus therefore couldn’t be contained.  We’re also assuming there was only one vector but it’s likely that others were infected by the same source but didn’t show symptoms.  In this case also, patient zero has never been found.

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Whether Idle
14 March 2020 07:37:17


 


Two problems with this:



  • even if you accept that every country will eventually achieve herd immunity, the time that this could take matters a lot. Thursday's messaging from HMG sounded like we could do this in the next few months in order to avoid a 2nd peak next winter. This is quite different from a country achieving herd immunity over several years with a relatively steady and mostly controlled number of critical cases

  • we don't know if every country will eventually achieve herd immunity. The WHO has said that this virus is unique in being highly contagious and at the same being possible (so far!) to almost stop it (slow it significantly) in several countries.


Look at Singapore or Hong Kong: they are both very densely populated, they had a relatively high number of infections early on and yet they have reduced the spread significantly to a very slow drip. They didn't even close their borders, they used social distancing, meticulous testing and contact tracing and the majority of the workforce worked from home for a time.


Communication to the public has been excellent too. for example in Singapore, publicly available charts and maps details patients' ages, nationalities, length of hospitalisation, where they live, their connections to one another etc. Contrast this to our approach, where the govt even said yesterday that we'll only be testing the seriously ill in hospitals. The WHO keeps saying that every country should track and test every case!


You could argue that it's all hopeless and one day it will spread all over Singapore, but I am not sure at all. I would keep an open mind about what our govt and (some of?) our scientists are saying. Yes, we have great scientists and experts, but they won't always be right and several other countries have great experts too. We don't even know if our approach is entirely based on science, there is no proper transparency.


We could be sleepwalking into a major disaster and this is not Brexit, it would cost many lives.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


It is refreshing to know that there are other people who realise that the lamentable approach of the Johnson administration could well be responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths this year through their inaction during January February and March.  It seems like only now do HMG realise that the "experts" and "scientists" they have chosen to listen to - because their message was more cautious, less disruptive, and more appealing to them as politicians who dont like to upset the voter, that these "experts" may not be the ones who are correct. The experts in Singapore and other countries have this right. 


The arrogant ignorance of the paternalistic complacent technocrats is staggering.


For Johnson its always about him.  So obsessed with power grabbing, Brexiting and flag flying was he, that he utterly failed to grasp the seriousness of this challenge. 


Even now his sordid lack of  leadership is almost beyond parody.


Boris got Brexit .done’.


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
14 March 2020 07:53:50


Switzerland is closing down all its ski resorts, despite good snow conditions and fully booked hotels - they are taking the economic hit on the chin to control the virus.


Their next step is to restrict entry to foreign nationals.


"Ski resort guests told to leave Zermatt"


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Austria also closing ski resorts from this weekend. France still open for now but lots of people demanding a decision for next week before travelling this weekend. 


The effects of this pandemic on the travel and hospitality industries will be enormous, and on top of all the woes they have suffered over the past couple of decades I think this will finish off much of the industry. Has the age of cheap and accessible mass travel had its day? 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
14 March 2020 08:03:53
Apple temporarily closing ALL stores OUTSIDE Greater China.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
14 March 2020 08:07:39

I see Apple stores have closed worldwide as of today apart from China where they are reopening.  As China gets back to normal the numbers of cases should go up again that's only logical.  If they don't then either , they aren't testing enough,  they are lying about positive tests or the first wave made a significant amount of the population immune and China already has some sort of herd immunity.  

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
14 March 2020 08:21:47


 


Two problems with this:



  • even if you accept that every country will eventually achieve herd immunity, the time that this could take matters a lot. Thursday's messaging from HMG sounded like we could do this in the next few months in order to avoid a 2nd peak next winter. This is quite different from a country achieving herd immunity over several years with a relatively steady and mostly controlled number of critical cases

  • we don't know if every country will eventually achieve herd immunity. The WHO has said that this virus is unique in being highly contagious and at the same being possible (so far!) to almost stop it (slow it significantly) in several countries.


Look at Singapore or Hong Kong: they are both very densely populated, they had a relatively high number of infections early on and yet they have reduced the spread significantly to a very slow drip. They didn't even close their borders, they used social distancing, meticulous testing and contact tracing and the majority of the workforce worked from home for a time.


Communication to the public has been excellent too. for example in Singapore, publicly available charts and maps details patients' ages, nationalities, length of hospitalisation, where they live, their connections to one another etc. Contrast this to our approach, where the govt even said yesterday that we'll only be testing the seriously ill in hospitals. The WHO keeps saying that every country should track and test every case!


You could argue that it's all hopeless and one day it will spread all over Singapore, but I am not sure at all. I would keep an open mind about what our govt and (some of?) our scientists are saying. Yes, we have great scientists and experts, but they won't always be right and several other countries have great experts too. We don't even know if our approach is entirely based on science, there is no proper transparency.


We could be sleepwalking into a major disaster and this is not Brexit, it would cost many lives.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


This is exactly the case.


The extreme measures which some on here were arguing for a month or two ago weren’t even put into place in Singapore. They didn’t close their borders, close everything down, or ban travel - the most draconian measure they took was to ban travellers who’d been to mainland China. Yes more travel restrictions are coming in now but that’s only because of the ridiculous situation in Europe. 


Like you say it was all about the extremely clear public message, meticulous contact tracing, and effective preventative measures. These should have been put into place here, if we wanted to have any hope of having control of this virus. 


We have taken a very different approach and only time will tell if it’s the right one. I’m sorry to say I have my doubts, but clearly I’m not an expert. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Brian Gaze
14 March 2020 08:28:57
Just been told a key fear is the possible collapse of the rental property market. People missing rent payments due to illness and landlords not able to pay mortgage.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Northern Sky
14 March 2020 08:31:50


 


This is exactly the case.


The extreme measures which some on here were arguing for a month or two ago weren’t even put into place in Singapore. They didn’t close their borders, close everything down, or ban travel - the most draconian measure they took was to ban travellers who’d been to mainland China. Yes more travel restrictions are coming in now but that’s only because of the ridiculous situation in Europe. 


Like you say it was all about the extremely clear public message, meticulous contact tracing, and effective preventative measures. These should have been put into place here, if we wanted to have any hope of having control of this virus. 


We have taken a very different approach and only time will tell if it’s the right one. I’m sorry to say I have my doubts, but clearly I’m not an expert. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


xionis post makes a lot of sense but I wonder if cultural differences play a significant factor here? Maybe in Europe people are less likely to go along with what is asked of them? Perhaps the measures in Singapore are not possible to be implemented in anything like as effective a way in Europe?


I honestly don't know.

Joe Bloggs
14 March 2020 08:35:42


 


xionis post makes a lot of sense but I wonder if cultural differences play a significant factor here? Maybe in Europe people are less likely to go along with what is asked of them? Perhaps the measures in Singapore are not possible to be implemented in anything like as effective a way in Europe?


I honestly don't know.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


I think this could be correct.


Also Singapore & Hong Kong are similar in that they are small, city states. For geographical reasons if nothing else it is probably easier to take a consistent, effective approach. 


Think about the number of airports and points of entry in the UK just to understand the scale of the challenge. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Tim A
14 March 2020 08:40:37

Just been told a key fear is the possible collapse of the rental property market. People missing rent payments due to illness and landlords not able to pay mortgage.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Perhaps . As a side thing I look after three rental properties for my friend that lives abroad.   One tenant is a pilot,  another works in low pay manufacturing and the third has just given notice and it may be rather challenging to fill from April, so there are some vulnerablilities there. 


However he will still be able to make mortgage payments and at the end those are investments in the houses to own outright . Long term there is a massive shortage of quality housing for renting so he sees it as a short term issue only.  


Perhaps the government could reverse the tax changes of the last few years that have screwed the small landlords but not affected the large corporate ones. 

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Devonian
14 March 2020 08:42:35


 


Two problems with this:



  • even if you accept that every country will eventually achieve herd immunity, the time that this could take matters a lot. Thursday's messaging from HMG sounded like we could do this in the next few months in order to avoid a 2nd peak next winter. This is quite different from a country achieving herd immunity over several years with a relatively steady and mostly controlled number of critical cases

  • we don't know if every country will eventually achieve herd immunity. The WHO has said that this virus is unique in being highly contagious and at the same being possible (so far!) to almost stop it (slow it significantly) in several countries.


Look at Singapore or Hong Kong: they are both very densely populated, they had a relatively high number of infections early on and yet they have reduced the spread significantly to a very slow drip. They didn't even close their borders, they used social distancing, meticulous testing and contact tracing and the majority of the workforce worked from home for a time.


Communication to the public has been excellent too. for example in Singapore, publicly available charts and maps details patients' ages, nationalities, length of hospitalisation, where they live, their connections to one another etc. Contrast this to our approach, where the govt even said yesterday that we'll only be testing the seriously ill in hospitals. The WHO keeps saying that every country should track and test every case!


You could argue that it's all hopeless and one day it will spread all over Singapore, but I am not sure at all. I would keep an open mind about what our govt and (some of?) our scientists are saying. Yes, we have great scientists and experts, but they won't always be right and several other countries have great experts too. We don't even know if our approach is entirely based on science, there is no proper transparency.


We could be sleepwalking into a major disaster and this is not Brexit, it would cost many lives.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I read an article from something called 'medium'. It was a bit shrill but his point that we didn't (or did we) have herd immunity to anything before vaccination has some credibility. Did people have herd immunity to measles before vaccination? Nope, every kid got it.


What they mean by herd immunity is most people will have had it. No one will actually benefit from herd immunity, or not very much, until there is a vaccine?

Heavy Weather 2013
14 March 2020 08:50:31
When we come through this the landscape of the world may look very different.

On this country for instance. Certain retailers and/or airlines could collapse.
Mental about lower league football clubs relying on gate receipts to keep afloat.

The last two days have been so strange. Working from home has been strange
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Joe Bloggs
14 March 2020 08:53:54

When we come through this the landscape of the world may look very different.

On this country for instance. Certain retailers and/or airlines could collapse.
Mental about lower league football clubs relying on gate receipts to keep afloat.

The last two days have been so strange. Working from home has been strange

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I agree it is extremely surreal and scary.


The economic cost of this is going to be catastrophic, especially for the travel and leisure industry.


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Devonian
14 March 2020 08:59:03

When we come through this the landscape of the world may look very different.

On this country for instance. Certain retailers and/or airlines could collapse.
Mental about lower league football clubs relying on gate receipts to keep afloat.

The last two days have been so strange. Working from home has been strange

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


You could be right but once it is past it's peak world wide the mood will change. Probably...


What is stark is the lack of financial fat/prudence most people and businesses seem to have. I mean, some airlines make stacks of money, can they really not last a month? And is football not awash with money or not?


I've got savings to fall back on but as ever those like me will have to bail out the feckless. Unlike most people I don't mind that.

Bugglesgate
14 March 2020 09:01:16


 


Two problems with this:



  • even if you accept that every country will eventually achieve herd immunity, the time that this could take matters a lot. Thursday's messaging from HMG sounded like we could do this in the next few months in order to avoid a 2nd peak next winter. This is quite different from a country achieving herd immunity over several years with a relatively steady and mostly controlled number of critical cases

  • we don't know if every country will eventually achieve herd immunity. The WHO has said that this virus is unique in being highly contagious and at the same being possible (so far!) to almost stop it (slow it significantly) in several countries.


Look at Singapore or Hong Kong: they are both very densely populated, they had a relatively high number of infections early on and yet they have reduced the spread significantly to a very slow drip. They didn't even close their borders, they used social distancing, meticulous testing and contact tracing and the majority of the workforce worked from home for a time.


Communication to the public has been excellent too. for example in Singapore, publicly available charts and maps details patients' ages, nationalities, length of hospitalisation, where they live, their connections to one another etc. Contrast this to our approach, where the govt even said yesterday that we'll only be testing the seriously ill in hospitals. The WHO keeps saying that every country should track and test every case!


You could argue that it's all hopeless and one day it will spread all over Singapore, but I am not sure at all. I would keep an open mind about what our govt and (some of?) our scientists are saying. Yes, we have great scientists and experts, but they won't always be right and several other countries have great experts too. We don't even know if our approach is entirely based on science, there is no proper transparency.


We could be sleepwalking into a major disaster and this is not Brexit, it would cost many lives.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 



I initially thought the Govt. approach was the right one but I've changed my mind having thought about it a bit more.


The bottom line is that it's not compatible with the daily confirmed  cases graph here :-


https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14


To my eye, since the 10th of march it is exponential in growth.  That is not compatible with the Govt. approach and if the trajectory doesn't change within  a week or so the policy is a dead duck IMHO and I think they will be forced to "reverse ferret" !


Even if  we manage to keep the  infection rate below the threshold that "bricks" the NHS,  I think it is likley that Herd immunity will take a  lot longer that  it will take to get a vaccine for this thing.!


Closer to home,  "the day job" announced late on Friday  that anyone that can work from home should do.  As  my job  "hands on" hardware I can't do that but draining the place of "pen pushers"  and  their oft called meetings  will reduce my risk of infection so I'm in favour of it.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Heavy Weather 2013
14 March 2020 09:01:51


 


You could be right but once it is past it's peak world wide the mood will change. Probably...


What is stark is the lack of financial fat/prudence most people and businesses seem to have. I mean, some airlines make stacks of money, can they really not last a month? And is football not awash with money or not?


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


Football is, at the top of the pyramid at least. 


Southend, Blackburn are some clubs who are already in trouble.


Reading some stories online some clubs will lose £300,000 each match.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
The Beast from the East
14 March 2020 09:09:20


 


I agree it is extremely surreal and scary.


The economic cost of this is going to be catastrophic, especially for the travel and leisure industry.


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


THis will have the same impact as a War. Governments will have to bail out businesses, smaller football clubs etc and provide mortgage relief and rent relief to ordinary people. This is happening in Italy and other countries


But the current lot are libertarians. Most of the govt spending announced recently is for long term infrastructure. They are still not willing to help self employed and gig economy workers

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
westv
14 March 2020 09:11:29
Must be loads of people cancelling their holidays because everything is closed where they were going but no getting a refund because the FCO haven't advised against travel to that area.
We might have to be one of them if this carries on into April.
At least it will be mild!

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