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Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 11:51:24


 


I agree, except I don't think there is such a thing as 'herd immunity' - as it is understood anyway. If there was why didn't all the people (adults) who were immune to measles, pre vaccines, not protect those that hadn't had it (children)? Each one of us will either be immune/over it or still to catch it.


Though I guess that is kind of implied in your point 7.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


That's an interesting area and maybe Michael can comment.  


As I understand it you need a high level of herd immunity to prevent further epidemics, not to protect the entire population. Herd immunity just means a virus has fewer people available to infect because a majority of people are protected.  It explains why there have been outbreaks of measles when the MMR immunisation level has dropped below the required threshold - and that threshold depends on how infectious the virus is. For measles, for example, herd immunity is up around 90-95%. The current best guess for SARS-Cov2 seems to be 70-80%.


But obviously if you've got 80% or 90% of the population protected it still leaves the other 10-20% at risk from a chance encounter. People who refuse to have their children vaccinated with MMR are relying on those that do it to protect their own children.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Devonian
14 March 2020 11:52:46


 


Agree, it’s so hard to make a decision. For the past few days, on and off, I’ve had a very mild sore throat and a bit of a cough but nothing I would think twice about normally. It’s about the limit of what I normally get with a cold - I usually seem to get a very mild version when everyone around me gets a cold: I have a day or two with a bit of a tickle in the throat and then it disappears. Maybe once every year or two I get a proper full-blown man-flu episode but generally colds seem to pass me by. Based on my previous office half the staff would have to self-isolate at this time of year!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


So have I...


Which makes me wonder this. Why hasn't any nation done a random trial to find out just how many people have had C19? Perhaps that ability does not exist?


Also, have antibodies to C19 been detected in those who got better and ditto?


Any answers anyone?

xioni2
14 March 2020 11:54:13

And I forgot the classic line: the chief medical officer announced these measures saying 'our approach is science driven'.


 



I spoke to my sister this morning and Greece is taking such a different approach from here. Even though their number of known cases and deaths is still low, they have now closed malls, big stores, restaurants, cafes, bars, clubs, cinemas, theatres, gyms, museums, hair salons, playgrounds, brothels, you name it. Only takeaway/delivery outlets, supermarkets and pharmacies remain open but with restrictions on the numbers of people allowed inside (only 2 at a time in a chemist etc.). All sporting and cultural events have been cancelled.


They are terrified of the possible impact on their NHS, which has been devastated after the 10-year crisis. It sounds like an extreme reaction to me, but I just don't know. My sister is gobsmacked by HMG's reaction here and she says we are too complacent and are taking a huge gamble. She joked that I should get out now, while there is still time.


 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Retron
14 March 2020 11:54:53


Will you be following advice and self isolating?


The headteacher at my daughter’s (primary) school emailed yesterday to say she is self isolating for a week due to “heavy cold symptoms” although she is fairly sure she doesn’t have Covid-19.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It's a very awkward one. In theory, yes, but in practice...


I'll have to see how I feel on Monday. I suspect tonight's going to be a bit rough!


(I'm glad I have milkman service... if needed, I can order the basics for delivery in addition to the twice-weekly pint of milk)

Leysdown, north Kent
Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 11:55:49


 


I know you said *mostly*, but we are not there yet, dissent and scepticism are still strong here.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Greater information and understanding should tend towards a shared common view.


Of course that can never deal with outliers and trolls....

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
14 March 2020 12:01:45


 


That's an interesting area and maybe Michael can comment.  


As I understand it you need a high level of herd immunity to prevent further epidemics, not to protect the entire population. Herd immunity just means a virus has fewer people available to infect because a majority of people are protected.  It explains why there have been outbreaks of measles when the MMR immunisation level has dropped below the required threshold - and that threshold depends on how infectious the virus is. For measles, for example, herd immunity is up around 90-95%. The current best guess for SARS-Cov2 seems to be 70-80%.


But obviously if you've got 80% or 90% of the population protected it still leaves the other 10-20% at risk from a chance encounter. People who refuse to have their children vaccinated with MMR are relying on those that do it to protect their own children.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes that is pretty much it. If a high enough proportion of a community are immune to an illness then the spread will be significantly curtailed. The problem with that is we have to get to that point first which inevitably means lots of people (what percentage is debatable) need to acquire the infection before we get to that point. How that is managed and controlled is the big question that scientists, medics and yes politicians (hopefully based on the advice of the former) will be currently trying to get to grips with and it is not a simple one.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 12:04:42


I agree, except I don't think there is such a thing as 'herd immunity' - as it is understood anyway. If there was why didn't all the people (adults) who were immune to measles, pre vaccines, not protect those that hadn't had it (children)? Each one of us will either be immune/over it or still to catch it.


Though I guess that is kind of implied in your point 7.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Measles was classed as a childhood disease because the majority had it at a young age. Adults didn’t generally get it because they’d had it as a child and hence built up immunity.  Such viral infections were much less severe in children than in adults, as it seems Covid19 is, which is why our parents wanted us to get it when we were young.


My cousin, when in her 40’s, caught chicken pox from her young son.  She spent weeks in intensive care, some of it in a coma, on a ventilator and at the edge of life on several occasions. She pulled through but had a lung transplant five years ago. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 12:09:28


Measles was classed as a childhood disease because the majority had it at a young age. Adults didn’t generally get it because they’d had it as a child and hence built up immunity.  Such viral infections were much less severe in children than in adults, as it seems Covid19 is, which is why our parents wanted us to get it when we were young.


My cousin, when in her 40’s, caught chicken pox from her young son.  She spent weeks in intensive care, some of it in a coma, on a ventilator and at the edge of life on several occasions. She pulled through but had a lung transplant five years ago. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Hi Caz, that's a very good point. I remember my mother actually made sure I caught mumps, for example. We had some people round to the house and one of the children was just getting over it so my mother made me drink from the same glass, just to sure.... 


I had chickenpox when I was about five, IIRC. All I remember is being really itchy and coated in calamine lotion!


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
14 March 2020 12:10:00

Some of the yellow jackets protesters show how braindead they are by organising a protest in Paris in defiance of the ban of public gatherings of more than 100 people.

Gavin D
14 March 2020 12:10:19
So far. 71,964 people have been successfully treated and recovered from coronavirus around the world
xioni2
14 March 2020 12:11:43


 I had chickenpox when I was about five, IIRC. All I remember is being really itchy and coated in calamine lotion!


 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Ah the 19th century.


Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 12:12:25


Some of the yellow jackets protesters show how braindead they are by organising a protest in Paris in defiance of the ban of public gatherings of more than 100 people.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


A new angle on how to get rapid herd immunity!


Or how to become a nominee for a Darwin Award.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 12:13:58


 


Ah the 19th century.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


Not sure whether that was a compliment. 


Not bad IT skills for someone who is apparently over 120....


😜

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 12:15:23


Hi Caz, that's a very good point. I remember my mother actually made sure I caught mumps, for example. We had some people round to the house and one of the children was just getting over it so my mother made me drink from the same glass, just to sure.... 


I had chickenpox when I was about five, IIRC. All I remember is being really itchy and coated in calamine lotion!


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Oh yes.  The calamine lotion that turned you white when it dried!
German measles, (Rubella) was the most important one for young girls to get before puberty, as it was know to cause birth defects if contracted while pregnant. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Justin W
14 March 2020 12:17:31


 


It's a very awkward one. In theory, yes, but in practice...


I'll have to see how I feel on Monday. I suspect tonight's going to be a bit rough!


(I'm glad I have milkman service... if needed, I can order the basics for delivery in addition to the twice-weekly pint of milk)


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Why are you not automatically self isolating?

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
xioni2
14 March 2020 12:18:02


 A new angle on how to get rapid herd immunity!


Or how to become a nominee for a Darwin Award.


 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



The Dwight approach is also fail proof.


Gavin D
14 March 2020 12:18:07

TUI have or in the process of suspending flights to the following destinations.


AMAICA



  • We are aware that the Jamaican authorities have taken the decision not to permit entry to anyone travelling from the UK to Jamaica from 14th March 2020 for 14 days. We will proactively contact all customers due to travel to Jamaica between 14th March and 28th March, including all cruise bookings to offer alternative holiday options or offer a full-refund.


SPAIN



  • Following local measures put in place by the Spanish Authorities, including closing some hotel facilities and the local bars, restaurants and beaches we have made the difficult decision to cancel holidays due to travel between 14 and 16 March. Although there is currently no advice from the UK Government against travelling to Spain it would not be the holiday experience we would want for our customers.

  • We will proactively contact all customers due to travel to Alicante between 14 March and 16 March to offer alternative holiday options or offer a full-refund. Any customers due to travel between 17 March and 23 March will be contacted about their holiday on Monday 16 March.


CYPRUS



  • Due to restrictions introduced by the local authorities, we’re sorry to advise that all holidays to Cyprus departing up to and including 24 March have unfortunately had to be cancelled. If you are due to travel in the next two days, you will receive a full refund. We are proactively contacting affected customers departing between 16 and 24 March to find a suitable alternative holiday.

  • Customers who manage to rebook onto an alternative holiday will receive £50 per adult and £25 per child discount off their new holiday cost. If it is absolutely not possible to find a suitable alternative, customers will receive a full refund. All holidays on or after 25 March are currently operating as planned, therefore normal terms and conditions for amendments and cancellations apply. Should the restriction remain in place we will proactively contact affected customers.


MALTA AND TUNISIA



  • Due to restrictions introduced by the local authorities, we’re sorry to advise that all holidays to Malta and Tunisia departing up to and including 22 March have unfortunately had to be cancelled. If you are due to travel in the next two days, you will receive a full refund. We are proactively contacting affected customers departing between 16 and 24 March to find a suitable alternative holiday. Customers who manage to rebook onto an alternative holiday will receive £50 per adult and £25 per child discount off their new holiday cost.

  • If it is absolutely not possible to find a suitable alternative, customers will receive a full refund. All holidays on or after 22 March are currently operating as planned, therefore normal terms and conditions for amendments and cancellations apply. Should the restriction remain in place we will proactively contact affected customers.


ITALY



  • We’re aware that the FCO has now changed its travel advice for Italy to all but essential travel and the Italian Government has implemented new internal measures to minimise the spread of Coronavirus which will run up to and including 3rd April. If you are due to travel between now and 3rd April to Italy a member of our customer services team will contact you directly to discuss your options including an amendment or full refund. Customers who rebook will receive a refund of £50 per adult, and £25 per child. Holidays from 4th April onwards are due to operate as planned.


FLORIDA



  • We are aware that Universal Orlando Resort and Walt Disney World Resort have announced they will be closing between 15 and 31 March. Any customers due to travel to Florida in those dates who wish to discuss their options should call our customer contact centre. To discuss your booking to Florida, please call us on 0800 009 3836 or 0203 636 1997: 9am - 7pm (Monday to Friday), 9am – 6pm (Saturday) and 10am-5pm (Sunday).


SRI LANKA



  • The local authorities in Sri Lanka have implemented restrictions meaning that passengers will no longer be able to apply for a visa on arrival into the country. Therefore, all customers due to travel on a TUI holiday, TUI Tour or Multi-centre holiday to Sri Lanka must secure their visa prior to travel. You can buy one here: http://www.eta.gov.lk/slvisa/ 


THAILAND



  • The local authorities in Thailand have implemented restrictions meaning all customers due to travel on a TUI holiday to Thailand, whether with TUI Airways or a third party airline, will be required to download an AOT Airports app onto their mobile phones and complete the required information such as full name, passport ID, mobile phone number and address. This information will be stored for 14 days and used if state agencies are required to make contact with individuals either during their holiday or afterwards.


VIETNAM



  • We are contacting customers who are due to travel to Vietnam from 17th March onwards as they will now need to apply for a visa from the Vietnamese Embassy

Devonian
14 March 2020 12:18:33


Measles was classed as a childhood disease because the majority had it at a young age. Adults didn’t generally get it because they’d had it as a child and hence built up immunity.  Such viral infections were much less severe in children than in adults, as it seems Covid19 is, which is why our parents wanted us to get it when we were young.


My cousin, when in her 40’s, caught chicken pox from her young son.  She spent weeks in intensive care, some of it in a coma, on a ventilator and at the edge of life on several occasions. She pulled through but had a lung transplant five years ago. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Yup, but, clearly, herd immunity did not protect children (at all?).


I think C19 probably isn't as nasty as measles, chicken pox and the rest (think what they did to adults in S America 500 odd years ago) - if it is we're not doing enough to slow it...

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 12:18:37


 


 


Not sure whether that was a compliment. 


Not bad IT skills for someone who is apparently over 120....


😜


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

  Ahh, I thought I was the only one who can never work out the 100 year difference!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 12:19:26


Oh yes.  The calamine lotion that turned you white when it dried!
German measles, (Rubella) was the most important one for young girls to get before puberty, as it was know to cause birth defects if contracted while pregnant. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


That's the one!  Then you scraped it off your skin....


I had German Measles when I was 17: a really mild dose which just made me feel under the weather for about 24 hours. I recall that I went and played cricket the day after! Probably shouldn't have done, but herd immunity and all that...


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
14 March 2020 12:22:51

Not to worry. The US stock market had its biggest rise in history yesterday. 


 



Retron
14 March 2020 12:24:33


Why are you not automatically self isolating?


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I am at the moment - not been outside all day, in fact. As I should have been at the wolf centre today, that's already had an effect.


I won't be going out tomorrow either.


And if I still have symptoms on Monday, I won't go in either. If I'm fine, though, then I might - note the emphasis on might - go in.


 

Leysdown, north Kent
John p
14 March 2020 12:28:59


 


I am at the moment - not been outside all day, in fact. As I should have been at the wolf centre today, that's already had an effect.


I won't be going out tomorrow either.


And if I still have symptoms on Monday, I won't go in either. If I'm fine, though, then I might - note the emphasis on might - go in.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


So you work at a school and will defy Government advice?  Sorry, but that’s irresponsible - they said 7 days.  Not ‘until you’re feeling better’.

Camberley, Surrey
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 12:29:52


 


Yup, but, clearly, herd immunity did not protect children (at all?).


I think C19 probably isn't as nasty as measles, chicken pox and the rest (think what they did to adults in S America 500 odd years ago) - if it is we're not doing enough to slow it...


Originally Posted by: Devonian 

It protected the ‘more at risk’ adults and protected children by infecting them while they were young enough for it to be less severe.  History tells us this works.  There are several documented cases of Western viruses being carried to countries by explorers and wiping out indigenous natives who had never been exposed to the virus and had no immunity.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
xioni2
14 March 2020 12:33:22


 So you work at a school and will defy Government advice?  Sorry, but that’s irresponsible - they said 7 days.  Not ‘until you’re feeling better’.


Originally Posted by: John p 


He'd be doing his bit though to establish herd immunity. 


We don't know obviously if Darren has the virus, it's quite unlikely if he doesn't have fever. Perhaps he should call 111 

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