The UK government has apparently already u-turned and will ban big gatherings. The most important thing now is transparency. A number of experts have concluded the government's managed "herd immunity" is not necessary and could cause hundreds of thousands of deaths. Remember WW1 Generals were educated and not necessarily with bad intentions.  

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This is interesting re: Schools.

Speaking to friends who work in schools. They are suggesting that they will be closed from Friday and this is confirmed from highest levels of government to heads

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Another u-turn if that is correct. Obviously I have no idea whether or not it is.

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Empty streets, empty shelves, people working from home...

A friend who travels into London on the high speed from Ashford said yesterday’s 12 coach early morning train (which is normally standing room only) had some carriages occupied by just one person.

Clearly, most stay at homes are trying to avoid getting infected. How long does this go on for? Do people get fed up and start going out again? Or is there months of this ahead? If the latter, then the UK’s market economy is going to collapse.

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My son Ethan is at secondary school and they are getting ready for a 2 week working from home plan for the pupils , I'm thinking behind the scenes closures are being discussed , it wouldn't surprise me if next weekend we hear something 

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I suspect control has been helped by meticulous cleanliness in public places.

Look at patient #1 in Seattle - a cascade of infection down the west coast is genetically traced back to that case. You could be as thorough as possible in contact tracing but you cannot stop the spread of a virus that is infectious before symptoms appear and that remains on surfaces for several days.

They must be preparing for both possibilities in that case - divided opinion.

People should not be surprised if expert advice changes in the light of experience. When it comes to mass sport, the government did not need to act in any case, since the sporting bodies themselves made decisions in the light of their own needs and experiences. Not everything has to happen by government edict.

 

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Some genuinely good news:

Chinese specialists help Italy fight the virus

A team of specialist Chinese doctors is in Italy to help the country in its fight against the virus, Ansa news agency reports.

They brought with them equipment including ventilators, respirators and masks.

They include the vice-president of the Chinese Red Cross and a professor of cardiopulmonary resuscitation, both part of the team of intensive care specialists, pediatricians and nurses who treated coronavirus patients in China.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51886497

1) Chinese Drs will have genuine expertise having been through this

2) Lots of countries are slamming the doors and pursuing beggar-thy-neighbour and this is the opposite

3) It suggests the Chinese are increasingly confident they have their own situation under control (e.g. don't help others with their oxygen mask until yours is securely fastened) 

*If* 3 is correct it suggests Whittey and Vallance are badly wrong.

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Govt experts fear in worst-case scenario the UK death toll could be much higher than 100,000

— entire strategy is based on avoiding a much worse second wave
— concerns that if there is a sudden spike the NHS simply doesn't have enough beds or ventilatorshttps://t.co/9LZP2YDVT0

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) March 14, 2020

  Was going to say exactly that!  We can’t compare the data from the new testing regime with the old one.  Now they are concentrating on testing the more likely cases, the number of positive results can be expected to be higher. 

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Jet2 have cancelled all flights to mainland Spain and its Islands with immediate effect.

Flights already airborne to Spain have turned round and headed back to the UK

Not necessarily - China has not achieved herd immunity and is itself locking down visitors from overseas.

Until there is either herd immunity or a widely available functional vaccine, all populations are at risk.

But China has seen off its first wave and it makes sense for them to help others experiencing theirs.

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Around here parents are taking matters into their own hands. I know for a fact that many are keeping their kids off school. This is an affluent area with high levels of education and an early corona "hot spot". Therefore, I would suggest we are slightly ahead of the curve and the local scenario will soon be repeated across the UK. It will leave the government with no choice. 

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China has a very strong interest in jump starting the western economies. I imagine that is what this aid for Italy is really about.

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Exactly what I thought.

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It is affluent areas which are seeing the fastest rise in cases and there is a reason for that - those are the areas from which people go on ski trips to the Alps.

Fortunately for the working classes, this has occurred before the peak season on the Costas and Spain is shutting down now.

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Least they could bloody well do 

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As I posted yesterday, all secondary schools were told by the Government on Thursday to make sure plans were in place to enable learning from home by yesterday. They were also told to send letters home to parents explaining this.

Now, whether schools have actually done it or not...

(And in the meantime, I've picked up a lovely bug from the head at my school; she was coughing all over the place during the initial meetings a week ago and now I've developed what seems like an extremely mild form of flu... shivering and sweating, cough and yes, I've spent most of the morning dozing. Not like me at all!)

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I have to say Brian - I see the same happening across the UK once we start seeing a real spike in cases. Parents will act in the interest of their children. We have seen with toilet roll that when things get irrational the dominos start to fall. 

 

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Indeed.  A prolonged period of economic disruption  is the last thing they want as a major producer.   If things get tough in China the population may start questioning the  status quo.   China is also being very open with its Corona   virus research and collaborating  fully internationally.

 

 

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But children only appear to get mild symptoms from this bug - it is not the children we need to be concerned about, but the spread to older and vulnerable people.

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Aren't we still waiting for SARS wave 2?  

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It’s going to be interesting to see what’s happens in China now they are start to relax their quarantine.

It’s going to be very bad news if their cases start to go up again

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SARS never became a true pandemic.

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 Completely agree there is a strong element of self-interest in what the Chinese are doing. However, altruism is very often laced with self-interest whether it be at the individual or community level. 

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