All I will say is that COVID-19 is not SARS. Work done by German epidemioligists demonstrate that COVID-19 has a "shed rate" 1,000 times that of SARS - that means everyone who catches it, will infect others.

P.S.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-highlights-ease-spread-covid-19-viruses

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

You are correct, but to be pedantic this is SARS II. The official name of the virus is Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease it causes is called COVID-19.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Well, in terms of its structure it is SARS, because its official name is SARS-Cov2

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Lots of discussion about the "second wave". First reference I encountered from a sane source:

Then — or so the theory goes — enough people will have acquired resistance to Covid-19 to avoid a second wave of disease next autumn or winter. Downing Street believes that other countries that have taken draconian action now will be vulnerable later in the year.

https://www.ft.com/content/0475f450-654f-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

My sources suggest that fear of a second wave of CV19 deaths this winter is what has shaped the government's strategy. This is why: pic.twitter.com/AZz9h78DSZ

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) March 14, 2020

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Two very different viruses though and also medicine back then was almost non existent. How well could they fight pneumonia back then?

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

It's interesting how the widely differing views in here have begun to coalesce (mostly) around the key points:

1. Trying to keep SARS-Cov2 out forever was always impossible
2. Once a novel virus gets into circulation you can't put the genie back in the bottle; ever.
3. Measures taken have to be commensurate with the prevailing level of risk
4. There is no cavalry riding into view: a vaccine is likely at least a year away and we have will have to ride the next winter season
5. Only herd immunity acquired by catching Covid-19 is going to work until there's a vaccine.
6. We have to do our best to protect vulnerable groups whilst building the herd immunity
7. It's likely that there will be further waves (subject to vaccine availability) and the more you suppress the first wave the more people will be vulnerable to later ones.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It's interesting how the widely differing views in here have begun to coalesce (mostly) around the key points:

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

As I posted yesterday, all secondary schools were told by the Government on Thursday to make sure plans were in place to enable learning from home by yesterday. They were also told to send letters home to parents explaining this.

Now, whether schools have actually done it or not...

(And in the meantime, I've picked up a lovely bug from the head at my school; she was coughing all over the place during the initial meetings a week ago and now I've developed what seems like an extremely mild form of flu... shivering and sweating, cough and yes, I've spent most of the morning dozing. Not like me at all!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

It's interesting how the widely differing views in here have begun to coalesce (mostly) around the key points:

1. Trying to keep SARS-Cov2 out forever was always impossible
2. Once a novel virus gets into circulation you can't put the genie back in the bottle; ever.
3. Measures taken have to be commensurate with the prevailing level of risk
4. There is no cavalry riding into view: a vaccine is likely at least a year away and we have will have to ride the next winter season
5. Only herd immunity acquired by catching Covid-19 is going to work until there's a vaccine.
6. We have to do our best to protect vulnerable groups whilst building the herd immunity
7. It's likely that there will be further waves (subject to vaccine availability) and the more you suppress the first wave the more people will be vulnerable to later ones.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

The headteacher at my daughter’s (primary) school emailed yesterday to say she is self isolating for a week due to “heavy cold symptoms” although she is fairly sure she doesn’t have Covid-19.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I am interested in your definition of "vector", CC. It usually has a specific meaning in epidemiology - a "third party species" or other mechanism responsible for the transmission of an "agent" that infects a "host". Like a mosquito in the transmission of malaria to humans. Another relevant concept is that of a "reservoir", which is an alternative host species - the "reservoir host" in which the agent can survive. This was something that was raised as a possibility issue in the early stages of this pandemic but that question has gone quiet.

Of course a "super spreader" could loosely be termed a vector, but in that looser sense every infected person who infects another would count as a vector. The reason to be clear on this is we are still learning about the transmission of Covid-19 and may yet turn up other potential hosts - pigs or domestic species for example - or true "vector species" we have not yet considered - perish the thought.

The word "herd" is being used in our discussions, and it has a certain charm - not least because our local GPs use the expression "Vaccinate the whole herd" when doing the 'flu vaccinations!

Roger

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

As a company we are in a nightmare situation with regards staff coughing 

Advice is don't run to the doctors - 7 day self isolate 

We'd have no one at work if we followed that advice 

Rock and a hard place 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I would agree with all of that except for the last point which is somewhat unanswerable.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 My wife and I both returned from Finland with colds. The issues with self isolation quickly become obvious. We needed to buy food and getting online delivery wasn't possible for another week.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze