That's an interesting area and maybe Michael can comment.  

As I understand it you need a high level of herd immunity to prevent further epidemics, not to protect the entire population. Herd immunity just means a virus has fewer people available to infect because a majority of people are protected.  It explains why there have been outbreaks of measles when the MMR immunisation level has dropped below the required threshold - and that threshold depends on how infectious the virus is. For measles, for example, herd immunity is up around 90-95%. The current best guess for SARS-Cov2 seems to be 70-80%.

But obviously if you've got 80% or 90% of the population protected it still leaves the other 10-20% at risk from a chance encounter. People who refuse to have their children vaccinated with MMR are relying on those that do it to protect their own children.

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So have I...

Which makes me wonder this. Why hasn't any nation done a random trial to find out just how many people have had C19? Perhaps that ability does not exist?

Also, have antibodies to C19 been detected in those who got better and ditto?

Any answers anyone?

And I forgot the classic line: the chief medical officer announced these measures saying 'our approach is science driven'.

 

It's a very awkward one. In theory, yes, but in practice...

I'll have to see how I feel on Monday. I suspect tonight's going to be a bit rough!

(I'm glad I have milkman service... if needed, I can order the basics for delivery in addition to the twice-weekly pint of milk)

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Greater information and understanding should tend towards a shared common view.

Of course that can never deal with outliers and trolls....

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Yes that is pretty much it. If a high enough proportion of a community are immune to an illness then the spread will be significantly curtailed. The problem with that is we have to get to that point first which inevitably means lots of people (what percentage is debatable) need to acquire the infection before we get to that point. How that is managed and controlled is the big question that scientists, medics and yes politicians (hopefully based on the advice of the former) will be currently trying to get to grips with and it is not a simple one.

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Measles was classed as a childhood disease because the majority had it at a young age. Adults didn’t generally get it because they’d had it as a child and hence built up immunity.  Such viral infections were much less severe in children than in adults, as it seems Covid19 is, which is why our parents wanted us to get it when we were young.

My cousin, when in her 40’s, caught chicken pox from her young son.  She spent weeks in intensive care, some of it in a coma, on a ventilator and at the edge of life on several occasions. She pulled through but had a lung transplant five years ago. 

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Hi Caz, that's a very good point. I remember my mother actually made sure I caught mumps, for example. We had some people round to the house and one of the children was just getting over it so my mother made me drink from the same glass, just to sure.... 

I had chickenpox when I was about five, IIRC. All I remember is being really itchy and coated in calamine lotion!

 

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Some of the yellow jackets protesters show how braindead they are by organising a protest in Paris in defiance of the ban of public gatherings of more than 100 people.

So far. 71,964 people have been successfully treated and recovered from coronavirus around the world

Ah the 19th century.

 

A new angle on how to get rapid herd immunity!

Or how to become a nominee for a Darwin Award.

 

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Not sure whether that was a compliment. 

Not bad IT skills for someone who is apparently over 120....

😜

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Oh yes.  The calamine lotion that turned you white when it dried!
German measles, (Rubella) was the most important one for young girls to get before puberty, as it was know to cause birth defects if contracted while pregnant. 

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Why are you not automatically self isolating?

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The Dwight approach is also fail proof.

TUI have or in the process of suspending flights to the following destinations.

AMAICA

• We are aware that the Jamaican authorities have taken the decision not to permit entry to anyone travelling from the UK to Jamaica from 14th March 2020 for 14 days. We will proactively contact all customers due to travel to Jamaica between 14th March and 28th March, including all cruise bookings to offer alternative holiday options or offer a full-refund.

SPAIN

• Following local measures put in place by the Spanish Authorities, including closing some hotel facilities and the local bars, restaurants and beaches we have made the difficult decision to cancel holidays due to travel between 14 and 16 March. Although there is currently no advice from the UK Government against travelling to Spain it would not be the holiday experience we would want for our customers.


• We will proactively contact all customers due to travel to Alicante between 14 March and 16 March to offer alternative holiday options or offer a full-refund. Any customers due to travel between 17 March and 23 March will be contacted about their holiday on Monday 16 March.

CYPRUS

• Due to restrictions introduced by the local authorities, we’re sorry to advise that all holidays to Cyprus departing up to and including 24 March have unfortunately had to be cancelled. If you are due to travel in the next two days, you will receive a full refund. We are proactively contacting affected customers departing between 16 and 24 March to find a suitable alternative holiday.


• Customers who manage to rebook onto an alternative holiday will receive £50 per adult and £25 per child discount off their new holiday cost. If it is absolutely not possible to find a suitable alternative, customers will receive a full refund. All holidays on or after 25 March are currently operating as planned, therefore normal terms and conditions for amendments and cancellations apply. Should the restriction remain in place we will proactively contact affected customers.

MALTA AND TUNISIA

• Due to restrictions introduced by the local authorities, we’re sorry to advise that all holidays to Malta and Tunisia departing up to and including 22 March have unfortunately had to be cancelled. If you are due to travel in the next two days, you will receive a full refund. We are proactively contacting affected customers departing between 16 and 24 March to find a suitable alternative holiday. Customers who manage to rebook onto an alternative holiday will receive £50 per adult and £25 per child discount off their new holiday cost.


• If it is absolutely not possible to find a suitable alternative, customers will receive a full refund. All holidays on or after 22 March are currently operating as planned, therefore normal terms and conditions for amendments and cancellations apply. Should the restriction remain in place we will proactively contact affected customers.

ITALY

• We’re aware that the FCO has now changed its travel advice for Italy to all but essential travel and the Italian Government has implemented new internal measures to minimise the spread of Coronavirus which will run up to and including 3rd April. If you are due to travel between now and 3rd April to Italy a member of our customer services team will contact you directly to discuss your options including an amendment or full refund. Customers who rebook will receive a refund of £50 per adult, and £25 per child. Holidays from 4th April onwards are due to operate as planned.

FLORIDA

• We are aware that Universal Orlando Resort and Walt Disney World Resort have announced they will be closing between 15 and 31 March. Any customers due to travel to Florida in those dates who wish to discuss their options should call our customer contact centre. To discuss your booking to Florida, please call us on 0800 009 3836 or 0203 636 1997: 9am - 7pm (Monday to Friday), 9am – 6pm (Saturday) and 10am-5pm (Sunday).

SRI LANKA

• The local authorities in Sri Lanka have implemented restrictions meaning that passengers will no longer be able to apply for a visa on arrival into the country. Therefore, all customers due to travel on a TUI holiday, TUI Tour or Multi-centre holiday to Sri Lanka must secure their visa prior to travel. You can buy one here: http://www.eta.gov.lk/slvisa/ 

THAILAND

• The local authorities in Thailand have implemented restrictions meaning all customers due to travel on a TUI holiday to Thailand, whether with TUI Airways or a third party airline, will be required to download an AOT Airports app onto their mobile phones and complete the required information such as full name, passport ID, mobile phone number and address. This information will be stored for 14 days and used if state agencies are required to make contact with individuals either during their holiday or afterwards.

VIETNAM

• We are contacting customers who are due to travel to Vietnam from 17th March onwards as they will now need to apply for a visa from the Vietnamese Embassy

Yup, but, clearly, herd immunity did not protect children (at all?).

I think C19 probably isn't as nasty as measles, chicken pox and the rest (think what they did to adults in S America 500 odd years ago) - if it is we're not doing enough to slow it...

  Ahh, I thought I was the only one who can never work out the 100 year difference!  

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That's the one!  Then you scraped it off your skin....

I had German Measles when I was 17: a really mild dose which just made me feel under the weather for about 24 hours. I recall that I went and played cricket the day after! Probably shouldn't have done, but herd immunity and all that...

 

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Not to worry. The US stock market had its biggest rise in history yesterday. 

 

BIGGEST STOCK MARKET RISE IN HISTORY YESTERDAY!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 14, 2020

I am at the moment - not been outside all day, in fact. As I should have been at the wolf centre today, that's already had an effect.

I won't be going out tomorrow either.

And if I still have symptoms on Monday, I won't go in either. If I'm fine, though, then I might - note the emphasis on might - go in.

 

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So you work at a school and will defy Government advice?  Sorry, but that’s irresponsible - they said 7 days.  Not ‘until you’re feeling better’.

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It protected the ‘more at risk’ adults and protected children by infecting them while they were young enough for it to be less severe.  History tells us this works.  There are several documented cases of Western viruses being carried to countries by explorers and wiping out indigenous natives who had never been exposed to the virus and had no immunity.

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He'd be doing his bit though to establish herd immunity. 

We don't know obviously if Darren has the virus, it's quite unlikely if he doesn't have fever. Perhaps he should call 111